Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Duane S.]

GEM kills the heights to our NE after T120, sinking SE and returns to zonal through the run, although a lot less hard core:

 

T240:  gem-0-240 (4).png  gem-1-240.png  gem-9-240 (1).png

 

Pretty average January stuff. The trend is increasingly poor; who said the output couldn't get worse?

 

I did for one and it appears I was wrong! Going to need more than a 'not too bad' set of GEFS and a 'pretty good' ECM 12z to turn this around. Not throwing the towel in yet as a turnaround is still possible but time is fast running out.

Edited January 10, 2014 by s4lancia

[IDO]

Just for you Summer Sun:  

[lassie23]

I did for one and it appears I was wrong! Going to need more than a 'not too bad' set of GEFS and a 'pretty good' ECM 12z to turn this around. Not throwing the towel in yet as a turnaround is still possible but time is fast running out.

The Gem is not the most reliable model at the best of times. It was showing a decent cold spell not too long ago.

[Long haul to mild]

Low res GFS goes zonal shocker! When doesn't it?

Still much to be decided on next week's synoptics, let alone further out.

[Summer Sun]

Just for you Summer Sun:  Screenshot_10_01_2014_16_56-2.png

 

Its another one of those if only it were summer moments towards the end of GFS tonight for a short time

 

 

[draztik]

Low res GFS goes zonal shocker! When doesn't it?

a more than plausible route, consistent with the gefs, Canadian and naefs ens! Time will tell.

[warrenb]

Its another one of those if only it were summer moments towards the end of GFS tonight for a short time

 

 

To be honest have you ever seen so little cold in a chart for January

[Long haul to mild]

a more than plausible route, consistent with the gefs, Canadian and naefs ens! Time will tell.

It always goes zonal though, and did so during last winter's cold spell and it did so run after run, failing miserably.!Of course it may be correct eventually though. Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.....

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

As Nick sussex would say,theres no half way house here!

The heights to the North East are actually going to be a real pain for the UK if we can't get them far enough west,they will just act as a buffer to slow down the Atlantic lows pretty much right over us!

Pretty much as GFS12Z depicts.

Im concerned for those in flood hit areas,they in particular do not need this,im thoroughyl fed up of it and i for one dont have the problems they are dealing with.

[Summer Sun]

To be honest have you ever seen so little cold in a chart for January

 

I only started looking at the charts back in 2011 when I came across netweathers name in the paper during the severe cold and snow in December 2010, so the honest answer is no I haven't

[Mucka]

UKMO not offering much comfort I'm afraid

 

[TSNWK]

UKMO out.. Pretty much the same theme this pesky low lingers and fills over us, with those heights to the north we get early next week draining away to east...

It's all about trends in my view and they have only been going one way since Thursday morning. Time to brush ourselves down and onwards for the next chase..

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Gone from bad to worse these runs... anybody having DEC 2012 coming to mind!

[Mucka]

UKMO out.. Pretty much the same theme this pesky low lingers and fills over us, with those heights to the north we get early next week draining away to east...It's all about trends in my view and they have only been going one way since Thursday morning. Time to brush ourselves down and onwards for the next chase..

 

I can understand the sentiment but don't give up just yet. There is still enough variability run to run and noise in the ensembles for something to turn up at short notice even if it isn't the Easterly we were originally looking at and even that isn't completely off the menu either.

[phil nw.]

Yes a disappointing set of 12zs so far.

Those heights to the NE look weaker and consequently the Atlantic trough is pulled further north.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011012/UN72-21.GIF?10-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011012/gfsnh-0-72.png?12

 

it looks likely that we have lost this window of opportunity for getting that cold west as those Scandi.heights are modeled to slip away and fill leaving us in a stationary European trough.

[Panayiotis]

Ensembles at 144hrs are better compared to the Op regarding the heights over Scandi:

Ensemble:

Op:

And at 168hrs, the ensembles look much better than the Op.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

Edited January 10, 2014 by Panayiotis

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The signal for a very active period for around 16th with full moon looks like it will not be ruled by any block to our N east and even the GEM is now jumping ship from holding heights to our NE.  Now I think we are seeing the way forward and its going down hill for cold.  No prolonged cold blast, indeed if we even get any cold blast....its now not looking good at all.  I wouldn't be surprised to see further runs push this LP system even further east through us....which may give us some back edge stuff.

I think its going to get pretty wet next week.

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 10, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[JOPRO]

I can understand the sentiment but don't give up just yet. There is still enough variability run to run and noise in the ensembles for something to turn up at short notice even if it isn't the Easterly we were originally looking at and even that isn't completely off the menu either.

I agree I feel there is still much to be decieded with the current pattern, could this be a normal pre cold spell wobble? Am still not convineced with how that low just sits out there in the Atlantic forming an almost perfect football. But what do I know iam still learning!

[nodrog]

I've started a new topic here for Weather related TV (so I don't have to post here): http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79049-weather-on-tv/

[IDO]

The GFS 12z Control at T180:

 

 

Not a facsimile of the op but the same synoptics; low stalling, heights slipping from Scandi SE'wards and Weuro trough = dull and wet UK 

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=310&y=141 Apparently London has a 26185% chance of snow on the 13th... 

[cooling climate]

UKMO is a shocker probably worse than the GFS run.

 

The pattern to a easterly has been chased on here now since the turn of the new year with all three models singing from the same hyme sheet at just 150 odd hours out. Now two day later we are looking at these synoptics for the same time frame. It does make you wonder what is the point in it all, the ens and H500 anomaly charts etc are no better.

Sometimes your gut feeling can be better than the models.When the models were in agreement and they were showing a good possibility of cold and laying snow although I wanted to believe it I found it hard to picture it happening especially with the winter we are having. In Fact in many, many similar winters to this one I can not remember one that suddenly turned wintry with laying snow for more than a day if that.

Lets hope this strat warming materializes or at least the strat profiles being forecast as this offers

something more promising during February perhaps.

Edited January 10, 2014 by cooling climate

[Duane S.]

Crumbs of comfort?

 

GFS OP...

 

A few other GEFS options...

 

A few none too shabby ones there.

 

EDIT: Just seen Panayiotis has chosen the exact same timescale to point out the same thing 

Edited January 10, 2014 by s4lancia

[weather eater]

Poor again from the 12z, just goes to prove the point that it’s no point in chasing easterly’s modelled at 144hrs plus. Really what the models runs are, is projections for the evolution of synoptic patterns based on the starting data of the run. The trouble is by the time we see a model run and start to discuss it on this thread, that starting data is already out of date. Now of course the ensembles are supposed to help, but if you don’t know how the start data is wrong then you can’t make a judgement on which of the ensemble perturbations is the nearest match, at least the bulk of us don’t have that skill, mostly what happens on NW during winter is that the coldest ones get talked up and the milder options get swept under the carpet.

 

The saving grace here, is that the evolving doesn’t stop, so whatever this 12z operational is projecting it is increasing wrong past day three or four, and with 6 weeks of winter left and potentially early spring as well, there is still plenty of time for the weather to spread a little joy and happiness to those looking for a bit of cold and snow. Alternatively for those that have them, you could try paying extra attention to your partners and loved ones, I always get more pleasure from mine than I do from the weather, even if there are six foot snow drifts outside my door

 

Cecil Hogmanay Melchett I sympathise I really do, it’s raining again here now.

[Downpour]

Well it seems we are drinking at the No Chance Saloon again with a continuation of the mild wet dross we have seen all winter. Next!

Edited January 10, 2014 by Downpour