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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Quite a big shift in the GEFS 18hrs ensembles, even with those phasing issues quite a few  interesting solutions at least in terms of some frontal snow as shortwave energy heads se off the PV chunk to the nw.

 

Lets hope we see one of those nicer ensembles tomorrow as one of the operational runs.

 

Catching up now with the later ensembles and they do want to bring more energy east after the initial trough disruption, we'll have to see whether this is the GEFS bias or reality.

Edited by nick sussex
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Quite a big shift in the GEFS 18hrs ensembles, even with those phasing issues quite a few  interesting solutions at least in terms of some frontal snow as shortwave energy heads se off the PV chunk to the nw.

 

Lets hope we see one of those nicer ensembles tomorrow as one of the operational runs.

 

Also quite noticeable how many go for significant HLB in later FI

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If we can see the same continued westwards corrections in the GEFS  as the GFS operational run since this morning then things might look a  bit better. There is still a reluctance for a clean break with energy off the PV and this is still a sticking point. It does seem though from some of those GEFS that there might be more than one go in terms of shortwave energy heading se.

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Looking though CFS could not say less than a good chance of cold and wintry February, many Polar and Arctic blasts being indicated by the model, also one or two Siberian beasts.

 

I would imagine so close to the month now that the model is very much on to something...

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Looking though CFS could not say less than a good chance of cold and wintry February, many Polar and Arctic blasts being indicated by the model, also one or two Siberian beasts.

 

I would imagine so close to the month now that the model is very much on to something...

 

unfortunately this model has been shown to be utterly lacking this winter. In November it was showing blocking for Dec/Jan & Feb!

As for its latest output, here's the last 12 runs averaged for February...

 

Posted Image

Edited by draztik
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@frosty if u look at the mets update for next week it says hill snow for the north and possibly to lower levels at times. Ah well another day of outputs and to me it stil looks uninspiring to me for u.k wide cold and snow. People talking about strat warming for a start it's not yet in the reliable timeframe secondly any strat warming doesn't mean automatic cold and snow for us in the u.k. Untill the thermostat in the u.s freezer is turned up i think we can safely say there's going to be any meaningful cold for us in the u.k and until europ cools down too.

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unfortunately this model has been shown to be utterly lacking this winter. In November it was showing blocking for Dec/Jan & Feb!

As for its latest output, here's the last 12 runs averaged for February...

 

Posted Image

What model was showing 2 months of Atlantic storms the odd snow flake and a great flood??

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Unable to say if the westward trend has continued overnight on the GFS but what I will say is synoptic wise I like the UKMO this morning, could we be walking into a rather cold spell of weather from Saturday to Wednesday if the UKMO verified.

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Good punch to the body from Scandi but the Atlantic comes off the ropes swinging driving Scandi back what a bout this is. The ref should have stopped this in the early rounds though as Atlantic had Scandi down several times in early rounds with a flurry of zonal punches. The only way Scandi can win this fight is with a knockout but we don't think Scandi has the energy to deliver.

So no real change odd cold/rather cold day but mostly on the mild side the exception being Scotland which is going towards the cooler side  of things.

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Good punch to the body from Scandi but the Atlantic comes off the ropes swinging driving Scandi back what a bout this is. The ref should have stopped this in the early rounds though as Atlantic had Scandi down several times in early rounds with a flurry of zonal punches. The only way Scandi can win this fight is with a knockout but we don't think Scandi has the energy to deliver.So no real change odd cold/rather cold day but mostly on the mild side the exception being Scotland which is going towards the cooler side of things.

But the Atlantic looks like one of those old has beens that had one too many fights lolAlso, decent cold building up over scandi temps by Saturday will be down to -25c in Finland. Edited by john mac
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I can see a change towards colder conditions early next week following on from yesterdays theme.

Low heights transfering in to Europe is the recurring theme and good orientation of the disrupting lows.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011600/UW96-21.GIF?16-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011600/UN144-21.GIF?16-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011600/UN144-7.GIF?16-0

GFS is constantly trying to push heights s/e a recipe for boundary snow and all the time dragging in colder 850s into the mix

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011600/gfs-0-120.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011600/gfs-1-120.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011600/gfs-0-192.png?0

GEM same

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011600/gem-0-120.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011600/gem-0-222.png?00

ECM carries on with the theme

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011600/ECM1-192.GIF?16-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011600/ECM0-192.GIF?16-12

 

Paul Hudson said no sign of any cold or snow until February late last night.....but did add "That will put the mockers on it"

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This morning I feel that the ECM is correct up to 8 days after that the GFS is correct (great FI)

if only we could pick and choose like that! Reality is all models are still changing run by run and FI is around 72hrs

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Wow I was expecting more commentry after viewing he models this morning! Yet more westward movement, still time left, and I still would not write January off just yet, fl also full of potential, along with Strat warming still evident with every GFS run including the 00z, lots to look forward to me thinks!

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Interesting that only 36 hours ago some people were saying a return to zonality in around 8 days time.

Well lets use the day 6 charts to see if they are right

GFS

 

Maybe but there looks like there will be trough disruption, unsettled but the block is still still.

UKMO

 

Clear split flow with energy going south east into Europe

ECM

 

Similar to the UKMO

 

Oh and the zonal breakdown is sill at about 8 days away, the same time as 36 hours ago.... and 36 hours before that. Getting a trend here aren't we Posted Image

 

i'm glad someone else is awake on this !  however, once the deep cold drops into the us interior next week, the jet will get a big kick and that will be the test of the e scandi block. signs that it could  be getting some support from the arctic just in time ???

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It's been a while since FI has shown some potential, let's hope that it's a sign of change, and the METO lightens the mood with something colder forecast in the long term.

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i'm glad someone else is awake on this !  however, once the deep cold drops into the us interior next week, the jet will get a big kick and that will be the test of the e scandi block. signs that it could  be getting some support from the arctic just in time ???

Oh I don't think it's the fact know ones awake to it , it's just we're all burnt 2,3,4 times so very sceptical at minute , but I have to say the output today looks good , ECM and ukmo looking interesting , I think we are actually fairly close to a snow event next wk ? Uppers look very marginal , especially the ukmo , but the ECM looks very close , what do you think?Also looking at the gfs fi for what it's worth , it's showing a complete split in the vortex in fi ? Given the time of year I would say it looks plausible , that vortex has past it's sell by date , and only a matter of time before it's knocked out after been on the ropes for some time .post-9095-0-66398400-1389859621_thumb.jppost-9095-0-83043000-1389859627_thumb.jppost-9095-0-44022600-1389859652_thumb.jp
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Interesting that only 36 hours ago some people were saying a return to zonality in around 8 days time.

Well lets use the day 6 charts to see if they are right

GFS

Posted Image

Maybe but there looks like there will be trough disruption, unsettled but the block is still still.

UKMO

Posted Image

Clear split flow with energy going south east into Europe

ECM

Posted Image

Similar to the UKMO

 

Oh and the zonal breakdown is sill at about 8 days away, the same time as 36 hours ago.... and 36 hours before that. Getting a trend here aren't we Posted Image

 

Can see what you saying, and its true, blocks to our east regulary hold out from pressure from the Atlantic. This only serves us well though if the block is in situ  giving us an easterly flow, not much use if the North sea 100 miles off Norway is the battle ground? frustrating looking at it aint it pal.

Edited by Nicholas B
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Morning all

 

There are differences from as early as T72hrs as you can see the UKMO has the main low further south, the ECM is a bit too close for comfort at T96hrs, the GFS okay but then takes any possible fun too far east.

 

Overall we need to cheer on the UKMO today to at least get the best start in terms of splitting that energy,in terms of any chance for some snow that will need to come off the second shortwave as only then does it look like there will be a chance of a  colder undercut.

 

We should factor in comments from NCEP re the upstream pattern, more amplification over there might help pull those lower heights further to the nw this could impact the second shortwave in terms of track:

 

THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO AFFORD THESTRONGEST FORECAST CONTINUITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING MERIDIONALEVENT AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE 12Z/15 ECMWF WAS CORRELATED WITHITS ATTENDANT MEAN CLOSELY ENOUGH THROUGH DAY 5 TO USE AS ATEMPLATE FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES ACROSS THE NATION, WITH ASWITCH TO PURE MEAN BY DAY 7 WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC SPREAD GOESWIDE.THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE, WITH A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE HOLDING SWAYOVER THE WEST, AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THERE IS STILLPLENTY OF ROOM FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION OF ANY GIVEN SHORTWAVE INTOTHE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY DRAW DOWN A DEEPERLAYER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR, BUT ALSO BACK THE FLOW TO AN EXTENTSUFFICIENT TO TAP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM EITHER THE GULF OFMEXICO OR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST BET FORACCUMULATING SNOW IS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND DAYS 6AND 7. 

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