Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[nick sussex]

Nerve shredding so far watching the ECM come out, if only we could see that bulge of low heights to the nw pushed further west, its this phasing of energies that's very difficult to forecast accurately especially when everythings so finely balanced. The ECM is close to the UKMO but not as good, although the overall pattern is supported.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011512/ECM1-144.GIF?15-0

 

Some snow finally for the central / Eastern belt-  looks like a flat pattern though following on behind...

 

S

[BlueHedgehog074]

It should be there at the top under cartes n-hemi on the UKMO page.

Ah thank you. Found it. (surprised I didn't notice it straight away at top their, despite having no trouble finding that link on the other models I've viewed on that site).Will be interesting to see how the likes of the UKMO continue its Low undercutting potential, or whether it could just be another 'false alarm'. Edited January 15, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Purga]

Yes from 168hrs on it's useless

May as well stop looking now.

[nick sussex]

The ECM is even flatter over the west coast of the USA than the GFS at T168hrs, the UKMO is the most amplified at T144hrs over there, I have my doubts about the ECMs pattern in that region, it seems very quick to break down that ridge.

Edited January 15, 2014 by nick sussex

[nick sussex]

I can't wait for that Euro/Scandi block to left trouser leg off east and let in the Atlantic so by the months end we might be able to tap into some of that brutal cold on its way to Canada/US. I want a Jan 1984 remake!

You're joking the only thing remotely interesting is the Scandi high, any brutal cold in the USA is going nowhere unless you can cement over the Atlantic Ocean,

[shotski]

I'm sure the Atlantic might have something to do about that Snow1975, no way that cold can cross the pond on Zonal.

Edited January 15, 2014 by shotski

[snow1975]

You're joking the only thing remotely interesting is the Scandi high, any brutal cold in the USA is going nowhere unless you can cement over the Atlantic Ocean,

 It happened in 1984, we had nearly 2ft of snow up here. Look at this chart for 31st Jan 2014.

 

Edited January 15, 2014 by snow1975

[shaky]

The ECM is even flatter over the west coast of the USA than the GFS at T168hrs, the UKMO is the most amplified at T144hrs over there, I have my doubts about the ECMs pattern in that region, it seems very quick to break down that ridge.

yet the ecm still looks very good and similar to the ukmo up to 144 hours!!imagine if it improved upstream it would look even better than the ukmo probably!!

[nick sussex]

 It happened in 1984, we had nearly 2ft of snow up here. Look at this chart.

 

If you want extended cold you'll never get it with that set up and for UK wide snow its not upto much. That set up in 1984 was incredibly rare and seeing as its like pulling teeth this winter to get any cold into the UK I'd rather look east or ne than hope for synoptics like that.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes from 168hrs on it's useless

May as well stop looking now.

Nope

Another 24 hours past and we still don't have a clue

Edited January 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[swfc]

not a bad 216 hour chart on the ecm but its a big change from this morning???

[kev238]

Some more interesting charts this evening; what does seem probable is that there is going to be a fair amount of rain, cold rain at that , with a small chance of some snow temporarily.

[snow1975]

If you want extended cold you'll never get it with that set up and for UK wide snow its not upto much. That set up in 1984 was incredibly rare and seeing as its like pulling teeth this winter to get any cold into the UK I'd rather look east or ne than hope for synoptics like that.

Don't get me wrong, I've nothing against easterlies, I live in the east of Scotland, and we get plenty of snow from the east given the right synoptics eg March 2013. The current set-up is stale.

[nick sussex]

Don't get me wrong, I've nothing against easterlies, I live in the east of Scotland, and we get plenty of snow from the east given the right synoptics eg March 2013. The current set-up is stale.

I agree its stale and has been for most of the winter, but that was zonal stale this has a chance of freshening up a  bit!

 

Given the deep troughing in the ne USA if the Scandi high or high pressure to the ne can't block that energy and send it se then theres no other route to cold currently so we had better hope that we get a bit of luck!

[Captain Shortwave]

Don't get me wrong, I've nothing against easterlies, I live in the east of Scotland, and we get plenty of snow from the east given the right synoptics eg March 2013. The current set-up is stale.

Trouble is if the Atlantic does blast through;

1) that cold air over America will be either modified greatly by the Atlantic or by the sheer nature of the pattern end up north of Iceland, let alone anywhere near us.

2) If westerlies do get in then we might not see another chance for weeks, no guarantees but I would rather be looking at the chance now if the upstream pattern works in our favour.

So then the models.... there is another huge plunge of cold in two stages across the US between days 3 and 8. We need this to dig as far south as possible as by consequence we get a stronger Atlantic ridge being thrown up. The Atlantic ridge is the key here as we have the Pacific ridge which is an almost dead cert due to its frequent appearance during this season and the Scandi ridge is there in situ now. So we need the Atlantic ridge to deliver the killer blow and cut low heights over Central/southern Europe. Of course the reverse is true, if the pattern flattens then the Atlantic jet can simply blast the Scandi high out of the way.

So we continue for now in an equilibrium between these two end game scenarios, with a weak Atlantic ridge weathering a strong jet coming off the Eastern seaboard which dissipates before arriving into Europe. For now we remain completely clueless to which outcome we will have.

Edited January 15, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

So after all tonights outputs we've made little headway in knowing what will happen apart from troughing near the UK , high pressure to the ne and the models reluctant to part with the high.

 

Chances of some snow depending on how far west/east the pattern is, its not bad output just frustrating, if this was early December it would be interesting to see this battle, as it is now we don't have weeks to play with so we need more upstream amplification to hold back that energy for longer.

 

This holding pattern is past its sell by date, we want authority to land and quickly before we run out of fuel.

[bluearmy]

Struggling to understand the despondency on here. If the models were completely right beyond days 4/5, there would be little point in this thread. The trick is trying to work out where they are likely wrong and how they should be best adjusted to take all the data (current and recent) into account.

Some strange postings today. will make a more considered assessment post the ecm ens. until then, consider what the overall trend has been of the last few days. (Clue: the scandi ridge is not clearing as quickly as the models keep showing it to and the disruption is correcting west, slowly but surely) and that doesn't take upstream fully into account.

[cooling climate]

Very unlikely that anything is going to come out of this pattern. At very best maybe a little  

wet snow here and there but who wants that. I really think our chances now all rest on

the strat warming towards months end and if we are real lucky maybe some real winter

weather during February.

[nick sussex]

Interesting to hear tonight from NCEP and something we've all suspected for a long time, they basically have said their own model has a systematic problem across both the GFS operational run aswell as the GEFS in terms of being too fast with its movement east of features.

 

They also said it can do this for run after run! so there we have it, its not just us in here who have said this, from the horses mouth NCEP themselves have held their hands up and confirmed this.

 

Heres the quote from the forecaster discussing this in the diagnostic discussion.

 

...SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND REACHING THEEAST COAST SATURDAY...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/ECMWF/CANADIANCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHIS SYSTEM WILL SWING ANOTHER SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN THROUGH THEEASTERN U.S...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ANDHANDS OFF TO NEW COASTAL DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY WELL OFFSHORE OF THEMID ATLANTIC. THE GFS/GEFS IS MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH MORE QUICKLYEASTWARD THAN THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE. THIS DIFFERENCE APPEARSSYSTEMATIC...AS IT SHOWS UP IN CONSECUTIVE RUNS AND WHEN MEASUREDACROSS ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE SPREAD ISNARROWING...HOWEVER...AS THE 12Z GFS DID TREND A LITTLE SLOWER ANDTHE 12Z ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER. GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE TOOFAST...AND THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR TO CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DIGMORE SHARPLY/SLOWER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ANECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION. THE ECMWF TRENDING FASTER BRINGS IT CLOSER TOTHE 12Z NAM...ALLOWING US TO INCLUDE THE NAM IN OUR PREFERENCE.THE CANADIAN ALSO IMPROVED UPON ITS FORECAST WHICH HAD EARLIERBEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE 850 MB COLD DOME. 

Edited January 15, 2014 by nick sussex

[supernova]

So after all tonights outputs we've made little headway in knowing what will happen apart from troughing near the UK , high pressure to the ne and the models reluctant to part with the high.

 

Chances of some snow depending on how far west/east the pattern is, its not bad output just frustrating, if this was early December it would be interesting to see this battle, as it is now we don't have weeks to play with so we need more upstream amplification to hold back that energy for longer.

 

This holding pattern is past its sell by date, we want authority to land and quickly before we run out of fuel.

Nick to my eye, albeit one which is lacking in any significant skill or knowledge, there appears to have been a steady westwards flattening of any Azores high throughout GFS runs today and if this were to continue with the GFS18z then all models have the potential to look very similar at 120hrs which is probably the point at which we fall for another relentless 2014 winter tease or, with a prevailing wind and favourable trough disruption, we actually get within shouting distance of an Easterly shot at cold, albeit one based as much on hope as model predictability?

[cooling climate]

Struggling to understand the despondency on here. If the models were completely right beyond days 4/5, there would be little point in this thread. The trick is trying to work out where they are likely wrong and how they should be best adjusted to take all the data (current and recent) into account.Some strange postings today. will make a more considered assessment post the ecm ens. until then, consider what the overall trend has been of the last few days. (Clue: the scandi ridge is not clearing as quickly as the models keep showing it to and the disruption is correcting west, slowly but surely) and that doesn't take upstream fully into account.

The trouble is there is no sign from any of the models of the deeper cold reaching the UK. Yeah sure we

might see a couple of rather cold, chilly days with dare I say it some air frost thrown in for good measure

and as I just posted perhaps a little wet snow here and there but I really do not think that is what people

come on this thread looking for not in January anyway.

One thing is near certain there is no trend for deep cold to affect  the UK within the next 10days.

[nick sussex]

Nick to my eye, albeit one which is lacking in any significant skill or knowledge, there appears to have been a steady westwards flattening of any Azores high throughout GFS runs today and if this were to continue with the GFS18z then all models have the potential to look very similar at 120hrs which is probably the point at which we fall for another relentless 2014 winter tease or, with a prevailing wind and favourable trough disruption, we actually get within shouting distance of an Easterly shot at cold, albeit one based as much on hope as model predictability?

Yes I went into one this morning over its push east of the Azores high! its not likely because the overall pattern is expected to keep this displaced to the west, and also bear in mind those comments from NCEP re the GFS, that should call into question how much energy it throws east.

 

It's very finely balanced at the moment and I'm still remaining positive.

[Weather-history]

I'm sure the Atlantic might have something to do about that Snow1975, no way that cold can cross the pond on Zonal.

It is possible and it has happened but not often.

[bluearmy]

The trouble is there is no sign from any of the models of the deeper cold reaching the UK. Yeah sure we

might see a couple of rather cold, chilly days with dare I say it some air frost thrown in for good measure

and as I just posted perhaps a little wet snow here and there but I really do not think that is what people

come on this thread looking for not in January anyway.

One thing is near certain there is no trend for deep cold to affect  the UK within the next 10days.

 

CC - YOU DONT NEED DEEP COLD - ITS JANUARY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

yes, the first disruptive trough cannot draw a decent undercutting soueaster because the continent isnt cold enough. that will not be the case on the second or third disruption.  some of our best snowfalls have been those where the situation was a knife edge one.  we really could see a decent snow event next week. by the same token, we could fall the wrong side by a degree or so or a hundred miles. its getting to that kind of set up - honestly.