Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Downpour]

With the UKMO/ECM having a change of heart and showing signs of an Easterly, I just wonder if the ECM will come out all guns blazing

UKMO... Lovely

 

Just checking in after a very busy day. Not expecting this behaviour from the model with the biggest mild house-effect. Snowing in London within a week on that chart. 

 

More runs needed 

[karlos1983]

Anyone order some warming?

 

[Downpour]

Any news from Fergie? I wonder what Exeter makes of the output from their own model?

[MR EXTREMES]

Wintry day 10 chart, which also features a split vortex

 

 

 

The saga rumbles on and on!

it does indeed show something afoot,

but very volatile model outputs recently im still not convince what I have noticed that the 12z seem to favour better for the cold crew than the 0z.

 

and ive noticed steve murr still not around which is ashame because his input is very valid on here, but I expect hes just had enough and has given up as the volatile outputs just keep coming its such a messy pattern right now and im not convinced the models have a hold on this pattern.

[Fozfoster]

@360 hrs...

 

last 2 frames could be spectacular lol!

 

And still in Jan.!!as you forecast;-) Edited January 14, 2014 by Fozfoster

[snowmadchrisuk]

@360 hrs...

 

last 2 frames could be spectacular lol!

 

Overall it is good to see the Cold block holding on to our East even at +384 , the models said it should have been gone ages ago . I think we will eventually tap into this now , and it may be even colder by then . Also it wouldn't take much change for the Gem to join in IMO , it is only a few of hundred miles off 

[Dancerwithwings]

Just checking in after a very busy day. Not expecting this behaviour from the model with the biggest mild house-effect. Snowing in London within a week on that chart. 

 

More runs needed 

Snowing in London within a week, Your having a laugh! The way things are going it could be less Lets see what the ECM shows us later.

[snowmadchrisuk]

it does indeed show something afoot,

but very volatile model outputs recently im still not convince what I have noticed that the 12z seem to favour better for the cold crew than the 0z.

 

and ive noticed steve murr still not around which is ashame because his input is very valid on here, but I expect hes just had enough and has given up as the volatile outputs just keep coming its such a messy pattern right now and im not convinced the models have a hold on this pattern.

When you think the GFS 12z is normally more progressive then this is a really good run for the 12z in the early stages, still shows anything can happen ....  ... 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Overall it is good to see the Cold block holding on to our East even at +384 , the models said it should have been gone ages ago . I think we will eventually tap into this now , and it may be even colder by then . Also it wouldn't take much change for the Gem to join in IMO , it is only a few of hundred miles off 

 

Well if last night's 18z was close to the tipping point, the 12z today is hanging on by its teeth.

[Southender]

Anyone order some warming?

 

 

 

 

 

Loving that. Lets hope that nukes the PV once and for all and we have a decent shot at a cold February.

 

Saying that though the 12z's from GFS and UKMO are not too shabby in the semi-reliable. Could we pull a rabbit?.....

[Panayiotis]

Any news from Fergie? I wonder what Exeter makes of the output from their own model?

Well his last post on Twitter said that the Met were giving the easterly a 10% chance of occuring. I wonder if that has changed? (The FAX later may give us a hint)

If its been mentioned before can someone tell me when the MOGREPS comes out/runs? 

[tight isobar]

After 12z runs to date. One may start to perceive whan this evening s ECM evolves to.im still sticking firm on after recent underperformed, it will and is fast getting its house in order and will, lead the way and latter trending.

[The Eagle]

GFS ensembles are trending more toward the OP in the early stages.

 

 

We are not at an ideal scenario yet but real progress this evening toward it

[damianslaw]

The prospects for next week are very much up in the open air - there is a lot of room for error in the models, given everything hinges on the position and behaviour of the longwave trough, will it disrupt?, will it anchor itself in place awaiting energy off the Greenland vortex to reinforce it in situ or move it further east killing off the continental high advances?, will it simply fizzle as heights build to the west of it thanks to an amplified flow developing off the eastern USA seaboard?

 

There are many options on the table, and no wonder why the models are flip flopping from scenario to another. Longer term I said yesterday the key to a colder theme developing is the emergence of an amplified flow over USA/Canada eastern seaboard combined with a weakened polar vortex.. if this happens and we maintain a strong block to the east possibly linked to the Siberian high then the chances of a much colder continental feed establishing itself in time for February will be high - such a development isn't even reliant on a split polar vortex or SSW event.

[DAVID SNOW]

Anyone order some warming?

 

This is the third day in a  row someone has posted a GFS strat chart @..................384 HOURS...............Looks nice but................

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

This is the third day in a  row someone has posted a GFS strat chart @..................384 HOURS...............Looks nice but................

And im no expert but surely we would want the 'warming' over Greenland,that still looks ridiculously cold to me?

Finely balanced tis evening,definite shift west in the pattern with ukmo at t144 very close to being fantastic-hopefully the damn azores high wont scupper the developments!

[Downpour]

All eyes on the ECM tonight. Big test a-coming. 

[The PIT]

Alas the Atlantic just too strong still. It's on the ropes but keeps punching back. The block is there but too far east to pull the cold air consistently over us. Whether ECM will flip again in deep fi is another question but yesterday was a good example why they don't do model scores so far out. They're just unreliable.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just had a sneaky peak at the upcoming ECM 168 hrs chart

 

[lassie23]

This is the third day in a  row someone has posted a GFS strat chart @..................384 HOURS...............Looks nice but................

Yes it's too far out and subject to change, meanwhile the  GFS wants to bring brief cold snaps as depressions clear and swing in a northerly, could be some snow showers in the usual favoured spots, but not LONDON.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just had a sneaky peak at the upcoming ECM 168 hrs chart

 

 

It just gets better http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=12&mode=0&carte=0

If the ECM finished on 240h like that....BANK

Edited January 14, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[johnholmes]

Latest NAO update keeps it at neutral for another 2 weeks at least

 

 

Latest AO update keeps it negative

 

 

 

SS folk can see what you state is wrong for the AO, some of the output shows -ve some show +ve. Had you said there are rather more -ve ideas than +ve then you might find folk more ready to believe you. Please report accurately or simply leave the picture for folk to make their own mind up please?

Edited January 14, 2014 by johnholmes

[Chris K]

Just had a sneaky peak at the upcoming ECM 168 hrs chart

Am I being dumb here or am I being a killjoy for a joke? (or both!?)

The chart you linked says its from the GEFS ensembles?

Edited January 14, 2014 by Chris K

[The Northern Ramper]

Am I being dumb here or am I being a killjoy for a joke? :PThe chart you linked says its from the GEFS ensembles?

Whooooooooooooosh

[Chris K]

Whooooooooooooosh

I assumed as much. Its been a long day at work haha!