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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

ensembles are useless ? that rather depends how you use them. if this is the case, we may as well all pack up and go home. the met office who seem to get much kudos recently on here re their 7 day + forecasting are, i would wager, using 90%+ ens guidance at this range. maybe ian can help on this later.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Aye a pathetic showing by the NWP at present, I must say.

Yes dismal is being kind, I have little confidence in any solution with these wild changes, until theres consistency across the outputs with this trough near the UK.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

ensembles are useless ? that rather depends how you use them. if this is the case, we may as well all pack up and go home. the met office who seem to get much kudos recently on here re their 7 day + forecasting are, i would wager, using 90%+ ens guidance at this range. maybe ian can help on this later.

Yes because if they're just going on the mean and ensembles then the trough position at T96hrs is pivotal to how those ensembles can develop, f the ensembles have the wrong set up then they're going to be totally wrong later.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Yes very big improvement on the GFS 12z, Scandi block much stronger to previous run with heights edging to the north of the UK and much lowers heights over Spain:

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Yes because if they're just going on the mean and ensembles then the trough position at T96hrs is pivotal to how those ensembles can develop, f the ensembles have the wrong set up then they're going to be totally wrong later.

 

Exactly....the ensembles have been just as bad as the ops during this period. I can't speak for such tools as the MOGREPS though etc

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

If only there were cold uppers to our East / Sout east. Unfortunately a slack SE flow won't cut it at the moment. We need a long fetch easterly to be in business. Can the 12z do this? Stay tuned we will know in 15 mins time

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

If only there were cold uppers to our East / Sout east. Unfortunately a slack SE flow won't cut it at the moment. We need a long fetch easterly to be in business. Can the 12z do this? Stay tuned we will know in 15 mins time

 

It looks like the 12z ECM of yesterday...cold uppers to the NE of Scotland.

 

Low trying to disrupt S tip of Greenland too

 

Posted Image

Edited by CreweCold
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Still wet and cold at this point

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011412/gfs-0-126.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011412/gfs-2-132.png?12

 

But getting cooler all the while

Edited by winterof79
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

If only there were cold uppers to our East / Sout east. Unfortunately a slack SE flow won't cut it at the moment. We need a long fetch easterly to be in business. Can the 12z do this? Stay tuned we will know in 15 mins time

Indeed very poor 850s and the high going south east

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Yet another variation on the theme from gfs 12Z!

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

High pressure ridging out westwards from Scandinavia now.

Edited by Purga
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

so GFS is coming kicking and screaming then, as eluded before it never makes big jumps, slowly slowly moving to the ECM of yesterday.

Posted Image

Will the ECM agree this evening, more importantly, will the UKMO @+144...

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

so GFS is coming kicking and screaming then, as eluded before it never makes big jumps, slowly slowly moving to the ECM of yesterday.

Posted Image

Will the ECM agree this evening, more importantly, will the UKMO @+144...

The UKMO is a big improvement on this morning at 120hrs especially with pressure rising east of Iceland, but we can see the differences between it and the GFS.

 

The chaos continues, lol the 144hrs chart! Looks much colder to the east than the GFS but anyway this wasn't supposed to happen because the UKMO update said no!!!

 

I'd still like to see a westwards correction in that UKMO but it should get the thread in a good mood, be back later to see the ECM, lets hope that's in a party mood!

Edited by nick sussex
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

The UKMO is a big improvement on this morning at 120hrs especially with pressure rising east of Iceland, but we can see the differences between it and the GFS.

 

The chaos continues, lol the 144hrs chart!

Its not too shabby is it Nick?

Posted ImagePosted Image

Surface conditions cold, with any heavy PPN most likely falling as snow even at lower levels with -4C uppers and an easterly feed. As for the duration, heights to the north-east of Iceland could lead to another undercut, later down the line. 

Notice the deeper cold pool out east compared to the GFS for the same timeframe.... 

Well the GEM doesnt support neither the GFS or UKMO, is this a good sign? But im much more in favour of the GFS and UKMO over the GEM!

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Seems to be a good trend so far this evening of heights pushing back further west towards Iceland. This forces pressure on the troughing and gets it further south and east and also serves to keep the Atlantic held back long enough to give us another shot at getting the blocking in a more favourable position.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted · Hidden by Mucka, January 14, 2014 - duplicate
Hidden by Mucka, January 14, 2014 - duplicate

GEM is a bit of a shocker though.

 

Posted Image

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

I must confess I was not expecting this from the UKMO @144, especially given the very slim chance given by Exeter of an Easterly of sorts verifying. But we have seen this now pop up more than once and now on all Models, GFS, UKMO and ECM. Be interested to know if it is still in the 10-15% bracket, the Maths just don't add up to me. Well aware they have considerably more data than we do, I'm just commenting on what is showing on the data that we have access to.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

GEM is a bit of a shocker though.

 

Posted Image

 

Put it this way, I wouldn't like to be making a call over next week TBH. Could be cold with snow potential or a continuation of the crud we've endured for so long!

Edited by CreweCold
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

With the UKMO/ECM having a change of heart and showing signs of an Easterly, I just wonder if the ECM will come out all guns blazingPosted Image

UKMO... Lovely Posted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Are we seeing the great Scandi cold block standoff in FI?

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

There's a decent cold pool forming there at least.

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