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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Regardless of the ECM and if you just put aside its output, its what can be achieved and can't within the expected upstream pattern, the suggestion is it becomes more amplified and then gets even more amplified, the GFS starts the amplification and then gets flatter and flatter.

 

I doubt NCEP are going to tear up their 5/5 confidence at 6 to 10 day and their 4/5 for 8 to 14 day based on this tripe the GFS has just subjected us to. A middle ground solution if the ECM is showing too much amplification  which is less likely given the NCEP forecast is troughing sliding se near the UK but its certainly not tonights GFS 18hrs run.

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OMG Frosty don't do it! Stick with it a few more days,  it wouldn't be the same in here without your enthusiasm in the face of much adversity.

Right, own up. Who told emotional rollercoaster Frosty's password?

Cheer up, we're not even half-way through January yet!

 

As I am always saying, blocking to the NE can sometimes develop very quickly and catch the models out. Keep watching and you may be pleasantly surprised!

Get a grip man and post some unlikely, far reaching FI charts to keep us all hoping! We dont need to be in winter to get winter :-)

Just can not believe you of all people would throw the towel in, Come on keep it together son..... Just when things are looking upPosted Image

Nooooooooooooooooooooo..I love your optimistic posts

If I don't see a purb showing what could happen from the GFS Frosty tonight, I think I speak for most, we will be disappointed, if anyone can find us cold, it's you!!

 

Chin up, it's all to play for

Edited by karlos1983
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Just can not believe you of all people would throw the towel in, Come on keep it together son..... Just when things are looking upPosted Image

Looking at the above should give you some encouragementPosted Image

He has acquired a touch of realism at last!

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I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

Going for the old Reverse psychology tactic I assume Frosty? Would be a bit peculiar if not as I feel we are more primed now for a cold spell than at any other point so far this winter. Of course that isn't necessarily saying much in the context of how bad this winter has been so far though.
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I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

 Don't do that - it's snowing right now in Mid-Wales - two reports in now of heavy falling and sticking snow - admittedly above 300m but precip is slowly moving into the midlands now also - so we are on the brink of something yet Frosty! 

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I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-( 

Please Frosty keep the faith. .your enthusiasm has kept me going this winter in search of the cold weather. .don't give up now..

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Just a PS before I go to my bed!The 120H FAX has a classic look of HP pushing everything W and SW and the LP track going further S. And that's the FAX chart saying this!We'll see if it continues tomorrow.Posted Imagebrack4_130114.gif

I thought exactly the same when I saw it earlier on. On the face of it at least, it would appear quite bullish from the Meto. An Interesting few days lie ahead, especially if we can get some of that projected upstream amplification occurring.
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Oh well the models looks pretty reasonable in all honesty, the fax chart looks decent too. At least there is a good chance of getting winds to back towards the East. Hopefully thing will continue to build and not be like a couple of night ago where strong blocking trends were replaced by a zonal outlook in just 6 hours.

 

Frosty - Keep the faith dude, you never know what's around the corner, and in times of high uncertainty, so do the metoffice, the joys of meteorology and how the models that predicted the first prolonged heatwave in 6 years accurately at two weeks out, cannot for the life of them work out the American pattern at just 3 days out Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Unfortunately, the ext ecm ens are nothing to write home about this evening, coupled with the outlook from naefs/canadian and gefs ens, it does appear cold, or anything particularly settled look unlikely. Of course, we have the ecm op telling us all different, but seemingly the only ones listening are the cold brigade; and heck, why not. Unfortunately I've seen the ecm do this too many times of late to give much credit to its synoptic 12z path.

Posted Image

naefs 12z heights, days 11-15.. Looks familiar.

edit, the updated ec32 also looks very familiar. Keeps lower heights to our nw almost throughout!

Edited by draztik
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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=clay&HH=24&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=

 

Cloud layers, very useful especially for looking for the increasing high cloud ahead of weather systems on sunny days..

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That's not a bad set of 12z ensembles really;

post-12721-0-50025600-1389659002_thumb.j

Take out a few of those milder runs and you would have a rather respectable 2m mean value.

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I'm surprised anyone can have faith in any model at the moment,considering how much flip-flopping they have done over the last few days.

 

So the met's view that only 15% of their models show a chance of an easterly should be taken with a pinch of salt as well

 

And if you like -5c maxes and deep snow as some poster mentioned then the UK is one of the worst countries to live in the NH if you want this.

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18z quite an improvement on yesterday's run.

 

yesterday..Posted Imagegfsnh-2014011218-0-168.png  today..Posted Imagegfsnh-0-144.png

 

 

Hopefully this momentum can continue tomorrow.

 

The GFS is approaching the 'tipping point' once more on its 18z run....a little shunt and it ends up going the way of the ECM. Not that it matters as we've seen over the past week- it needs to all be modelled within 72 hours to be taken seriously....lesson learned there. If the tipping point is reached though, just watch the ensemble suites fall apart one by one (from relatively tight clustering to a myriad of cold perts appearing).

 

One thing I have noticed is that we appear to be in a completely different stall now RE background patterns. It's no coincidence IMO that as soon as the upper westerly's abate just a little, blocking starts to try to take hold once more......even in a year with a cast iron +QBO.

Edited by CreweCold
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No easterly on the morning GFS, but much more interesting looking FI...FI still only in January too so all to play for...the mornings ECM I feel can only downgrade surely!!!

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Morning all,

ECM seems to be correcting a little this morning as the low pressures are further east today sadly at day 5...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Yup, no Easterly by day 6 unlike last night's ECM...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

- pretty cold though I'd wager...

I've noted a number of comments re the EC32 and how it's not much use etc... Hasn't it predicted consistently low heights to our north west this winter? I'd say that was pretty good... (As much as many of us don't want it to be!)

Edited by Great Plum
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Energy pushing s/e from the atlantic and eights trying to push west

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011400/ECM1-168.GIF?14-12

 Of course the dreaded Norwegian short wave will not be present yet.But the azores high is throwing a ridge up to be the spoiler.

The Heights to the n/e remain still,so as Tamara says its a slow waiting game this winter .

Edited by winterof79
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ECM churns out a more progressive option this morning which has always been likely to happen and may well be closer to the eventual charts but too early to tell if this is a genuine step back or a blip.

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
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Far better amplification in the far reaches of the ECM and GFS runs this morning, once, well if we can get a chunk of the vortex to shift from the NW to NE I think the cold, which surely will come by months end, will arrive from the north and not the east. Hopefully this will be the case and we don't have to endure weeks chasing the phantom easterly.

 

post-2071-0-05370500-1389684099_thumb.pn

 

post-2071-0-25059300-1389684118_thumb.gi

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Ecm chucks out 'One from the top shelf ' this morning. Upstream is different as so too is the subsequent Atlantic profile. The trough disruption in the mid term gets ever more interesting and this is actually a colder run than yesterday with far more chance of surprise snowfall. A slack trough, low heights , reasonable uppers. You never know. Into fi and it looks akin to the progressive Sunday morning output. I suspect it's closer to a big cluster of the ens at this point. certainly this run is much more plausible than yesterday's 12z re the ens and spreads but that doesn't mean we won't see the model reverting to something more blocked again.

Longer term and the extended ens creating quite a polar split but the Canadian vortex segment is still shown too close to the nw Atlantic for comfort though yesterday's ECM op shows that isn't a reason not to have a strong scandi ridge.

Edited by bluearmy
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I think I will wait until this evening to pass any further judgement. though this could be heading for another score draw with low pressure parked over the UK with neither the Atlantic or Scandi high taking control of proceedings.

Though the constant tug of war between zonality and full on blocking is really starting to wear thin now, I kind of just want an end game either way at the moment.

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