Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[tight isobar]

Folks, light-hearted posts with Youtube videos are more suited to the model banter thread. Cheers.

NL coild yourself add some weight as to why my two previous posts, regarding ECM have been removed!?

[john mac]

IMO I think they are correct, based on the fact that the pv is weakened and the jet slower. We should get some energy going south/ south east.

[tight isobar]

Ignoring 850hpa s for a moment. Evolution is as some could have perceived, ecm has wobbled vastly recently, but will soon become form horse.and befofe anyone quotes,, yes the models ARE like horses if you know the trainer and animal, you can gage a better perception of possible outcomes( prognosis) the flip is imenent, , imo!

[Earth Wind and Snow]

The ECM mean charts seem to be broadly following the operational tonight

 

 

 

http://wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

 

http://wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

 

In the meantime while nothing majorly wintry this coming week - there should be plenty of frost about early in the week and again after midweek in slack airflow

 

EWS

Edited January 12, 2014 by Earth Wind and Snow

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP covering the next 10-14 days issued on Sunday January 12th and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a very unsettled week to come with the exception of Tuesday. Low pressure is again becoming the dominant factor governing the UK weather over the coming week. It's position over the North Atlantic will push a trough across the UK tonight with rain with another one tomorrow bringing showers, these most prevalent towards the South and West where some could be heavy and thundery. Over Tuesday a ridge will bring a window of drier weather before a new active depression over the North Atlantic west of Britain pushes another set of troughs across the UK on Wednesday with some heavy rain and strong winds followed by a return to showers on Thursday. The rest of the week and into the weekend then shows the parent low filling slowly but remaining close by or over the UK with further rain at times in average temperatures and relatively light winds.

 

GFS then shows the second half of the run with only small changes taking place with only fundamental changes in the trajectory and motion of Low pressure areas not creating major changes at the surface with most areas continuing to see rain at times through Week 2 through a rather windier spell of West winds and temperatures never far from the seasonal average. At the very end of the run a change to colder weather is shown for a time but at that range it will be gone by tomorrow.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very flat pattern with the mean for the run hugging the long term average mean line tonight. So from this we can deduce further unsettled weather with rain at times especially later in Week 1 with little chance if any of any cold weather in sight other than transient polar maritime air behind exiting depressions later.

 

UKMO tonight shows Low pressure from Iceland linked to a broad and deep trough over the UK ensuring further rain at times over all areas with some snow at times possible over Northern hills.

 

GEM also shows an unsettled end to the coming week under Low pressure. Through the latter stages of it's run it shows the Jet stream moving North with depressions then taking a more Northerly trajectory pulling winds over the UK into the WSW and bringing mild and damp weather with rather less rain at times for many, especially in the South.

 

NAVGEM ends it's run with a cool and showery NW flow giving way to a drier and brighter phase as a ridge of High pressure moves in with some sunshine by day but with a frost or two likely at night for a time.

 

ECM tonight also shows an incessant unsettled spell lasting for the next 10 days with Low pressure always in control delivering rain at times and cold enough for some snow on the hills, especially later as colder air comes into the mix as Low pressure slowly exits South and East of the UK with the run closing next Wednesday with a weak ridge across the UK under cold air with some wintry showers possible towards the East.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show continuing changeable conditions with a bias towards a Westerly flow and average temperatures between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores and Eastern Europe.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream profile over the next week or two remains lighter than recently but continuing a sine wave undulating across the Atlantic and Southern Europe through this week before it moves a little North over Europe while maintaining a generally Eastward track close to the UK in Week 2.

 

In Summary the models continue to programme a very unsettled spell for the period covered by the runs. Whilst not as wet or windy than conditions over Christmas and the New Year there will still be some heavy rain around at times with flooding problems remaining an issue, the rain seemingly heaviest at times over the areas of the South and West that least need it. There will be a few drier and brighter interludes between the rain events especially later where there are still a few indications that things might turn a bit colder.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Gibby

[Captain Shortwave]

Rather bemusing that we have had 3 completely different ECM ops which are then backed up well by the ensembles. This has to be rare, ok the ECM can swing even at day 5, but for the ensembles to do the same is very strange.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

The UK Met Mentioned yesterday or the day before (cant remember) that there could be a slack temporary flow from the east late next week before the Atlantic likely moves in - this was before any models showed this as a possibility to my eyes - the JMA and ECM tonight would seem to back up that prognosis. Ian F also stated today that things could go one of several directions after next week such is the uncertainty so I think we will continue to see the models throw up different possible scenarios over the next number of days

 

Anyone writing off winter cold at this early stage of January should rethink - lots of weather to get through in Jan, never mind Feb and March - add in the possibility of a sudden SW in late Jan and anything can happen    

 

EWS

Edited January 12, 2014 by Earth Wind and Snow

[tight isobar]

Rather bemusing that we have had 3 completely different ECM ops which are then backed up well by the ensembles. This has to be rare, ok the ECM can swing even at day 5, but for the ensembles to do the same is very strange.

And with current modeled, I wouldn't be at all surprised for other output to shortly follow suite.

And with current modeled, I wouldn't be at all surprised for other output to shortly follow suite.

I, E a flip (of sort again) but now within more reliable!

[fergieweather]

I wonder if any of the varied solutions past the weekend that Ian F was talking about looked anything like the latest ECM, be interesting to know!

Yes. One of varied possible outcomes. As I said earlier in weekend: whilst cold tap remains in situ to east, nothing can be wholly discounted for now.

[Cloud 10]

Quite a difference between the ensemble means of ECM and GFS at 168 hrs.

 

ECM..  GFS..

 

 

GFS to progressive or ECM to amplified?

 

 

NAEFS long range showing a substantial split in the polar vortex.

 

Edited January 12, 2014 by Cloud 10

[mackerel sky]

But surely out of the reliable ensemble window, once the cold has left Scandinavia and we are back into default mode. We aren't going to get an easterly. Not this month. If you look at the ensembles for Berlin... nothing particularly cold is a shoe in there? I love a ramp, but there is nothing I can see on the horizon for the next 10-14 days.Give it up.

[Geordiesnow]

Got to say whilst the models had the general pattern correct but looking at what was showing to what we see now is quite a bit different but apart from a few runs, the risk of an easterly was pretty low in my eyes although that said, I kind of thought those height rises may of came into play more in the end the weather on the ground here will be more the same 

 

Don't really see much interest for the foreseeable, ECM run would sum the winter up of finally having the height rises coming into play but all the cold air being diluted by that point. Really finding it hard when the next significant will occur, bearing in mind the above average SST's then it does not look good. 

 

Would be more than happy to sacrifice a easterly for a Northerly! 

Edited January 12, 2014 by Geordiesnow

[john mac]

Well, eyes down for the pub run. Lets see if its been on the booze tonight!

[Cloud 10]

But surely out of the reliable ensemble window, once the cold has left Scandinavia and we are back into default mode. We aren't going to get an easterly. Not this month. If you look at the ensembles for Berlin... nothing particularly cold is a shoe in there? I love a ramp, but there is nothing I can see on the horizon for the next 10-14 days.Give it up.

 

Maybe towards the middle of April. 

[john mac]

Yes. One of varied possible outcomes. As I said earlier in weekend: whilst cold tap remains in situ to east, nothing can be wholly discounted for now.

Quite right ian, plenty of cold stored to the east. It's currently -23c in Finnish Lapland and has been getting colder and colder over the last few days.

[Matty M]

If that little low centre near Barcelona decided to deepen a good bit there might be a long shot straw to clutch.

 

[bluearmy]

the ext ecm ens show the euro trough pushing back into the uk post day 10 before the jet the eases through on a nw/se axis. the main difference between the 12z and the 00z is the atlantic ridge thrown ne which splits a fair amount of the jet well to our ne approaching day 10 and for a day or two beyond. i imagine that atlantic trough which comes in beyond day 10 would disrupt in our locale. west, east or over would dictate if snow or rain. a strange old day and naefs the reminder that such differing solutions remain feasible.

[Ali1977]

Will than Newfoundland low help get some WAA up towards Greenland, maybe help get a Northerly initially

[john mac]

Can anyone post some charts for the 18z as I'm on my phone so I can't see them. Cheers

[SMU]

Can anyone post some charts for the 18z as I'm on my phone so I can't see them. Cheers

 

There you go

 

its going to be sunny

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014011218/63-562.GIF?12-18

S

[Cloud 10]

Can anyone post some charts for the 18z as I'm on my phone so I can't see them. Cheers

 

18z charts..

 

72hrs..  96hrs..

 

120hrs..  144 hrs..

 

168 hrs..

 

 

A bonus chart from the NASA model...

 

Edited January 12, 2014 by Cloud 10

[john mac]

There you go its going to be sunnyhttp://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014011218/63-562.GIF?12-18S

Lol

[Tim Bland]

For people on phones Meteociel is easy to view on a smart phone

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=186&code=0&mode=0

18z slightly more amplified than 12z but nowhere near as good as ECM

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs run does look quite similar to the UKMO at T144hrs, upstream its chaos in all honesty with so many phasing and timing issues, NCEP were not keen on the ECM and UKMO for the ne USA at day 3. I've been following the NAM and I've never seen such huge changes between outputs, that's all over the place.

 

I think the issue of contention now is really how the jet will approach the UK later in the week and where the high will be in relation to this, so will the energy head se through the UK or to the west and will the ridge force more trough disruption.

 

The splitting of the trough like the ECM is one of two options I think, although the models have been all over the place I think its either that or what the GFS/UKMO trend is at T144hrs.

 

With uncertainties upstream re the amplification and the high position still liable to change then I think its a difficult forecast.

[Ali1977]

That's a wintery looking NW wind at T240