Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Joe Levy]

SSW anyone? I think that before we get excited about snowy synoptics and when they might appear, or equally get hung up on what seems to be eternal zonality, it is these sorts of charts we want to see repeated. The building blocks are more important than the specifics first and foremost. These can completely alter the model output over time so take nothing for granted beyond high resolution charts.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Joe Levy

[swfc]

well deep in fi -12 850s head for the med!!!!  The uk even misses out there

[TSNWK]

SSW anyone? I think that before we get excited about snowy synoptics and when they might appear, it is these sorts of charts we want to see repeated. The building blocks are more important than the specifics first and foremost.

Yes but that chart is 2 weeks away and then there is another week to 10 days before it might have an effect lower down..

[Joe Levy]

Yes but that chart is 2 weeks away and then there is another week to 10 days before it might have an effect lower down..

Yes I agree, but that wasn't my point. My point is that we need the building blocks to be in place and at the moment, they aren't. That chart may be two weeks away, but the weather doesn't have to follow the model output! The weather controls the output not the other way round. The Met Office have probably been expecting an SSW for a while now based on hints dropped by various members, so looking at a stratospheric chart two weeks away is not as futile as you might think!

[IDO]

Nice GFS FI synoptically:    

 

No surprise bearing in mind the PV fired up dramatically from D5, a lull would most likely follow. 

 

 

[karyo]

Yes but that chart is 2 weeks away and then there is another week to 10 days before it might have an effect lower down..

And that's if the effect is fast. If it is slow then it could be late February!

Good to see though.

 

Karyo

[mcweather]

The prospect of an easterly - albeit temporarily - from end of next weekend into following week can't be wholly discounted yet, albeit as of 00z output any support for such outcome sits at ca. 15% MOGREPS-15 and 10% EC. The key message from UKMO remains one of ongoing greater than average uncertainty beyond next weekend, with a wide range of possible synoptic outcomes. However, strongest signal ultimately is for some build of pressure to the south; northward bias to jet position and thus more unsettled to N/NW with rPm episodes introducing somewhat colder spells periodically. But the ongoing uncertainty remains a key message: this is something those who have "written-off" winter in a fit of pique might be advised to reflect on.

 

Hi Fergie

 

Thank you as ever for your much valued input to this thread.  I think what some of us find a little baffling is the fact that the despite the key message from the UKMO being. one of greater than average uncertainty beyond next weekend. This not reflected in the extended outlooks on the Meto site. 

For instance the extended outlook issued this afternoon makes no mention of uncertainty of outlook at all and merely reflects the strongest signal that you have mentioned in your post.  If the uncertainty is greater than average one wonders why it is not mentioned.

[IDO]

GEM 12z is more like the 0z runs rather than the more progressive GFS 12z:

 

T150:    T240:  

 

Though again the PV appears to be stronger thru the Atlantic than the 0z.

 

UKMO T144: 

Edited January 12, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[TSNWK]

Yes I agree, but that wasn't my point. My point is that we need the building blocks to be in place and at the moment, they aren't. That chart may be two weeks away, but the weather doesn't have to follow the model output! The weather controls the output not the other way round. The Met Office have probably been expecting an SSW for a while now based on hints dropped by various members, so looking at a stratospheric chart two weeks away is not as futile as you might think!

Many thanks for the above. I guess like many on here I'm getting a little impatient, just seems like more jam tomorrow..

[ghrud]

SSW anyone? I think that before we get excited about snowy synoptics and when they might appear, or equally get hung up on what seems to be eternal zonality, it is these sorts of charts we want to see repeated. The building blocks are more important than the specifics first and foremost. These can completely alter the model output over time so take nothing for granted beyond high resolution charts.

 

 

 

Yes but that chart is 2 weeks away and then there is another week to 10 days before it might have an effect lower down..

 

"Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) can take anything from a few days to a few weeks for this process to take place." Quote from metofficenews

 

In in which case an effect may take hold in 15 days from now if prediction verifies or well into March. The warming being model here is not in our half of the Northern Hemisphere... d'you think this would also be a negative?

Edited January 12, 2014 by ghrud

[Joe Levy]

"Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) can take anything from a few days to a few weeks for this process to take place." Quote from metofficenews

 

In in which case an effect may take hold in 15 days from now if prediction verifies or well into March. The warming being model here is not in our half of the Northern Hemisphere... d'you think this would also be a negative?

It's hard to tell, since we can't see the temperature profile after this point. It is obviously easier if the warming occurs just to our north, but if it weakens the vortex enough, then its position isn't the most important factor, its existence in the first place is more significant.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z 8 day temperature anomaly restricts the below average temperatures to Scotland, Northern Ireland

 

[DAVID SNOW]

SSW anyone? I think that before we get excited about snowy synoptics and when they might appear, or equally get hung up on what seems to be eternal zonality, it is these sorts of charts we want to see repeated. The building blocks are more important than the specifics first and foremost. These can completely alter the model output over time so take nothing for granted beyond high resolution charts.

 

Were we not looking at similar GFS 384hrs strat charts 2 weeks ago and here we are 2 weeks later seeing the same thing?

Maybe ive got the wrong end of the stick but to me as with the 'normal' models it seems any proper cold or a favourable strat chart is always in FI?

[Ali1977]

There is a bit of FI potential in the GEFS, courtesy of WAA up into Greenland...It is towards deepest FI though.

P11 is showing massive FI potential - clutching straws I know!

Edited January 12, 2014 by Ali1977

[johnholmes]

well yet another pdf, I promised one looking at where we are in terms of actual weather now and what they predicted along with some ideas on what their prediction may hold for the weather 6-15 days away.

 

The anomaly charts again on sunday 11 jan 14.pdf

[Captain Shortwave]

STOP IT ECM!!!!   

Edited January 12, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Stuie]

Well that is a larger chunk of colder air coming from the north huh?

[Panayiotis]

What is this from the ECM?

[Jonan92]

The t144 chart of the ECM makes nosense with the previous ones

[Purga]

Well an 'interesting' run from ECM

 

Another wind up or what?

[Stuie]

Well an 'interesting' run from ECM

 

Another wind up or what?

 The ECM can`t wind up any more as the key has snapped off. Super Russian high as well. Different.

[nick sussex]

For those who were reading my earlier update from NCEP this is what I was trying to get across re the same sort of upper pattern but the details on the ground changing, perhaps I didn't explain it clearly but tonights ECM is plausible, its not a big NH change but a few tweeks upstream with that gap opening up between the two lows.

 

Again though there are differences upstream between the models and I'll post some charts up later.

Edited January 12, 2014 by nick sussex

[winterof79]

What is this from the ECM?

 

 

That would probably be the greater uncertainty from next weekend

[Stuie]

Nick, your 2 lows just phased.

[john mac]

For those who were reading my earlier update from NCEP this is what I was trying to get across re the same sort of upper pattern but the details on the ground changing, perhaps I didn't explain it clearly but tonights ECM is plausible, its not a big NH change but a few tweeks upstream with that gap opening up between the two lows.

 

Again though there are differences upstream between the models and I'll post some charts up later.

I was just going to get someone to wake you up lol, keeps things interesting and its almost into the reliable timeframes!!. At least its something to keep us interested.