Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Iceni]

It might be worth reading ian f's earlier posts re the high uncertainty beyond this week let alone the rest of the month.

 

Don't care what IF says. He saying there's uncertainty. No _____ Sherlock?

 

On Thursday, the MetO said that Cameron's statement that the flooding was due to climate change was mistaken, the very next day they supported his comment. Do I feel lucky? Well do I?

 

 

Nope.

[weatherguy]

Hideous Jet Stream pattern over the next couple of weeks… look at 180hrs to the lo-res…

 

 

That's it! I've had enough! We're moving to Canada.

 

It must be said that, based on the fellas in the strat thread, the super-PV is returning to "average" strength, while continued strat warming looks like it could finally start to dismantle the damned thing!  One could be hopeful that the strength of the jet starts to recede soon

[Purga]

Zonal

 

METO calling potential heavy rain in the west & south after next week.

[Catacol]

It must be said that, based on the fellas in the strat thread, the super-PV is returning to "average" strength, while continued strat warming looks like it could finally start to dismantle the damned thing!  One could be hopeful that the strength of the jet starts to recede soon

 

Yep - this is a slow process and it is easy to forget that it is only Jan 12 today. More than half of winter left even though the often stormy and almost exclusively westerly regime seems to have been around for ever. In chart searching terms we do feel stuck in a rut.

 

Strat processes are ongoing, but unlikely to produce an immediate quick fix. As Jan turns to Feb was always the call of the NetW forecast, and many wise old heads in the strat thread still see more time needed before we can disrupt the vortex enough to produce something different. I had hoped for an easterly element in the flow by 15th Jan - 4 days ago that looked spot on... now it looks unlikely. But the key is - there is time yet for strat disruption to have an impact.

[IDO]

Don't care what IF says. He saying there's uncertainty. No _____ Sherlock?

 

 

 

Nope.

 

 

Yes 10% EC go for an easterly; to me I would need 150% at T01 before I would get excited about our elusive friend from the east. 10% is worthless IMHO when we are talking about an easterly. The "great uncertainty" as Nick S, and others hint at is what follows with relation to the trough, and this looks to only be for about 2-3 days after the mid-week non-easterly (may get lucky with a quasi easterly flow from a cut off low). From D10 it looks like a return to Azores High -v- Atlantic.

 

The D6-10 update from the Met does not indicate any great uncertainty, their phrasing would usually be flush with a lot more caveats if indeed we were heading for a more fluid setup. 

 

The London ECM ens for the 0z: 

 

The op was in the colder cluster of its members from D6.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Don't care what IF says. He saying there's uncertainty. No _____ Sherlock?On Thursday, the MetO said that Cameron's statement that the flooding was due to climate change was mistaken, the very next day they supported his comment. Do I feel lucky? Well do I?

Nope.

Great post, What is that all about? Shocking reallyBFTP Edited January 12, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

Nick, I detect a touch of techiness in your reply but I am asking genuine questions because I am simply not quite sure of just what you mean. If the upper flow remains much as before, the anomaly charts suggest this and NOAA comments seem to agree with what they show, just what effect can the surface low have on the UK and when is what I am trying to find out from you.

I have no problem with us disagreeing but it would help the discussion if you could answer my question - please?

 

I have taken a very close look at the anomaly charts NOAA issued last night covering the 6-14 day periods and it is open to discussion just what is going to happen to the upper air pattern just SW of the Uk and into western Europe. I copy the link for you and others to be able to see and I am more than happy to discuss what you/I or others feel they show and what may develop from them. That is assuming they are close to the mark anyway. Who knows when we see the upper air by t00 on day 14 they may be quite wrong?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

I'm not getting tetchie but you seemed to ignore what NCEP themselves said on both their diagnostic and extended discussions, they suggest that the ECM ensembles are too quick across the USA and expected this evenings mean to move towards the 00hrs operational run, and also they expect the pattern over the USA to show less eastwwards progression as well as a more western track of LP which I quoted in my earlier post.

 

And for the last time I'm not disagreeing with the overall upper pattern but you're obsessed with those anomaly maps! I was simply saying that the detail re the trough disruption may be open to revision and hence whether we see a split in that and how much eastwards/westwards progress it makes, those maps give an approximation of the anomalies they're not correct to the mile.

Edited January 12, 2014 by nick sussex

[johnholmes]

thanks Nick, I am no more obsessed with the anomaly charts than you are at insisting the surface pattern is going to hold the key at the 6-10 day time scale. Different ways of looking at things and perfectly acceptable. I leave it to other folk to decide which one is more scientific. I will come back to them rest assured. Indeed I intend to do another pdf looking at how they compare to the current upper air pattern, how they have changed over the past week and what may happen to the upper trough (which incidentally allows the surface feature to be where it is) predicted to be close by the UK in the 6-15 day time scale. Using a pdf format allows folk to either read or ignore and I find it easier to construct what I want to say that way showing charts as well as text.

Edited January 12, 2014 by johnholmes

[nick sussex]

thanks Nick, I am no more obsessed with the anomaly charts than you are at insisting the surface pattern is going to hold the key at the 6-10 day time scale. Different ways of looking at things and perfectly acceptable. I leave it to other folk to decide which one is more scientific. I will come back to them rest assured. Indeed I intend to do another pdf looking at how they compare to the current upper air pattern, how they have changed over the past week and what may happen to the upper trough (which incidentally allows the surface feature to be where it is) predicted to be close by the UK in the 6-15 day time scale. Using a pdf format allows folk to either read or ignore and I find it easier to construct what I want to say that way showing charts as well as text.

Lol! I never said that the surface pattern holds the key I was simply saying that within that upper pattern you can have some uncertainties at ground level, so we know the troughing will be in a certain approximate area, given the block to the ne a hundred miles either way can make a difference at ground level, those anomaly maps are a guide to what can be achieved within the overall pattern. You have got completely the wrong end of the stick of my posts and I think we should just leave it and move on.

Edited January 12, 2014 by nick sussex

[cooling climate]

Lol! I never said that the surface pattern holds the key I was simply saying that within that upper pattern you can have some uncertainties at ground level, so we know the troughing will be in a certain approximate area, given the block to the ne a hundred miles either way can make a difference at ground level, those anomaly maps are a guide to what can be achieved within the overall pattern. You have got completely the wrong end of the stick of my posts and I think we should just leave it and move on.

Quite agree with this. You can look back through anomaly H5 patterns or composites of years

gone by showing the H5 anomaly pattern which at times would suggest the UK in the grip of bitterly

cold weather etc when in fact it was not the case at all.

In fact I would not mind betting that the anomaly charts over the last week would show a much

higher chance of cold affecting the UK than they do now. Thus making them no better for forcasting

and at times worse especially when a pattern is about to break down or change.

[cooling climate]

GFS 12z out to t132 and as I said yesterday there is only one way the high to the east

is going and that is south.

[john mac]

Anyway lets see what the gfs has in store for us this afternoon.

[Chris K]

Without wanting to sound like a debate moderator, everyone has their own preferred methods and I am sure each have their flaws and advantages.

 

Most of us are continuously learning from each other, which is why I find resources such as online forums so useful at times.

 

Nothing wrong with a bit of debate and questioning  Keep up the good work, as learners like me find people with knowledge and understanding from many posters here very valuable.

[IDO]

Looks like the models really under-estimated the flow from the PV. Even more energy going over the top on the 12z. The Scandi high sinking more than it did on the 06z:

 

12z:   06z: 

 

= even flatter surface flow on 12z.

[johnholmes]

Quite agree with this. You can look back through anomaly H5 patterns or composites of years

gone by showing the H5 anomaly pattern which at times would suggest the UK in the grip of bitterly

cold weather etc when in fact it was not the case at all.

In fact I would not mind betting that the anomaly charts over the last week would show a much

higher chance of cold affecting the UK than they do now. Thus making them no better for forcasting

and at times worse especially when a pattern is about to break down or change.

that last comment is not true CC, as per a post I made earlier that they along with Exeter never went for an easterly. It does need a lot of practice to get the correct idea of just what they are showing and what that may mean for the surface. Particularly difficult is how much use can be made of the anomalies shown. Easier to use and understand are the contour lines the models predict. 

But if it offends folk me using them to try and help on the model thread then I will simply post them as a pdf then folk can either read or ignore, copying them into the technical area so I can find them more easily.

[Cloud 10]

Cross polar flow on the gfs 12z at 144 hrs.

 

 

 

Shame its going south to north. 

[IDO]

Next Sunday we are back to square one: 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[tight isobar]

Looks like the models really under-estimated the flow from the PV. Even more energy going over the top on the 12z. The Scandi high sinking more than it did on the 06z:

 

12z: gfs-0-132 (1).png  06z: gfs-0-138 (2).png

 

= even flatter surface flow on 12z.

good points.and yes the models have struggled emensly, with the energy gradients and track. Still something tells me as sudden drama may unfold within nxt 24hrs. If not then even my optimisation will fold. ?.

[swfc]

Any talk of a colder drier spell of weather looks to all but have slipped away on the 12z and a return to the wind and rain set back in.God what a terrible outlook and thought!!!

[Jason M]

Next Sunday we are back to square one: gfsnh-0-162 (1).png gfs-0-168.png

Yup, all aboard the train to zonalville.

I think Crewe Colds January forecast might be in trouble :-)

In fairness this has been on the cards for the last week really. The ensembles have been all over the place but almost without exception they have ended up at 'zonal' regardless of whether they were picking up the short easterly spell or not.

[Bobby]

Next Sunday we are back to square one: gfsnh-0-162 (1).png gfs-0-168.png

 

 

That's one organised, angry looking Polar Vortex and with signs of high pressure building from the south it's looking grim for any cold spell in January you have to say.

[draztik]

Yup, all aboard the train to zonalville.I think Crewe Colds January forecast might be in trouble :-)In fairness this has been on the cards for the last week really. The ensembles have been all over the place but almost without exception they have ended up at 'zonal' regardless of whether they were picking up the short easterly spell or not.

nail on head. While we have seen fluctuations within the ens, the trend has been for a return to a more mobile flow. This now seems inevitable, as unfortunate as that may sound. Edited January 12, 2014 by draztik

[IDO]

D10 GFS:  

 

The mean for Feb from CFS is interesting (FWIW):    

 

So late Jan may start to get interesting.

[TSNWK]

That's one organised, angry looking Polar Vortex and with signs of high pressure building from the south it's looking grim for any cold spell in January you have to say.

Yep looking that way. We are now at least 2 weeks away from anything decent, this week is pretty much sorted with the scandi hgh drifting away, lowering heights to our north west and the Azores high giving us a nudge. It therefore stands to reason that it would take a week or so to unpick all that..I noticed a comment from Fergie that there was still a little uncertainly on what happens next weekend and beyond, well from the info we have to hand I would say its getting more and more certain that the outlook for coldies ain't good. Edited January 12, 2014 by TSNWK

[Man With Beard]

that last comment is not true CC, as per a post I made earlier that they along with Exeter never went for an easterly. It does need a lot of practice to get the correct idea of just what they are showing and what that may mean for the surface. Particularly difficult is how much use can be made of the anomalies shown. Easier to use and understand are the contour lines the models predict. But if it offends folk me using them to try and help on the model thread then I will simply post them as a pdf then folk can either read or ignore, copying them into the technical area so I can find them more easily.

Your posts definitely don't offend me, John. I think we all benefit from forum users who specialize in differing methods for forecasting, it helps everyone else see the whole picture and not just get sucked in by the ECM op! People may disagree with you but that's absolutely fine, often these disagreements and subsequent debates are what help us forum readers work out what is useful to look at and what isn't. This week I thought it was useful to document the progress of the ECM mean and I hope that has helped some people here to build a picture of what can reasonably be expected from the ECM mean as a measure - as steve murr quite rightly pointed out, the mean hadnt picked up a shortwave and subsequently got the UK completely wrong even if many other things were right. Sorry for off topic (slightly) but don't want to lose John Holmes' input from this thread!