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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM T240 mean has the Scandi high disappearing east by D10:  Posted ImageEDM1-240 (4).gif

     

    Very consistent with the ops from the various models with PV reorganised to our NW, AH ridging NE and the UK somewhere in a zonal flow.

    Thats probably right unfortunately, the stalemate of last night was never going to last, either the block would win or the models would usher it east.

     

    All the models have been woeful in terms of the high to the ne, couldn't even model that correctly at just T96hrs! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well the ECM ens have flipped just like the op this morning, now favouring a return to a westerly set-up. I guess one could say that there is huge volatility in the output. On the other I just feel that this has been slipping away for days now. The models frankly have been dreadful and this latest tease will unbelievably mean that the ECM will be beaten in the 5 day verification stats by the lowly NAVGEM if the return to westerly scenario is correct.

    Can't just have a go at the ECM, it's ironic that the GFS also got seduced by a pattern, which the model rarely goes for and frequently has to backtrack to in embarrassing fashion.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The ECM T240 mean has the Scandi high disappearing east by D10:  Posted ImageEDM1-240 (4).gif

     

    Very consistent with the ops from the various models with PV reorganised to our NW, AH ridging NE and the UK somewhere in a zonal flow.

    The Ecm has again been a huge let down, like slowly releasing the air from a balloon it has gone from mega wintry charts to non descript. The Gfs is constantly slated on here which really makes me angry because it's the ecm which is the biggest con of them all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    just for any newer members who might have been worried by this post-

    The GFS is awful for coldies and for people flooded out of their houses, it continues to bring low after low after low.Posted Image

     

    thats not what the GFS is showing.

     

    this is a more accurate description-

     

    Looking ahead, there are no weather warnings so it looks like a more typical spell of gernerally unsettled weather with occasional drier and brighter days, there is a risk of snow on northern hills at times and some night frosts during the quieter interludes.

     

    what its actually showing during the low resolution part (the slightly more believable bit) is a slow moving trough to the west, bringing some rain next week, interspersed with drier, brighter spells. rainfall totals (whilst unwelcome to some) shouldn't be worrying amounts, with some snow on high ground in the north.

    its not showing mild either. it won't be siberia but it will be cold.

    it even ends up in FI with a feeble easterly which though not snowy would be very chilly

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    just for any newer members who might have been worried by this post-

     

    thats not what the GFS is showing.

     

     

     

    Yes not a zonal flow but still worrying bearing in mind the state of the ground for many in the west. A trough to the west can still bring in weather fronts and GFS total rainfall for the next 8 days:

     

    post-14819-0-88808800-1389517781_thumb.g

     

    To the west some areas getting over 60% of their monthly rainfall in just over a week.

     

    Fingers crossed that week 2 will bring some respite.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    ENS fully in accord with the Op runs so pretty much game over for any cold at all.

     

    ECM ensembles (Reading) showing a mild picture with median >10C

    Posted Image

    GFS loses any cold members

    Posted Image

     

    So zonal mild and wet is the best call for the foreseeable with some big precipitation spikes possible.

     

    Good old British winter - the eternal Autumn.Posted Image

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Yes not a zonal flow but still worrying bearing in mind the state of the ground for many in the west. A trough to the west can still bring in weather fronts and GFS total rainfall for the next 8 days:

     

    Posted Imagegfsopuktotpcp192 (1).gif

     

    To the west some areas getting over 60% of their monthly rainfall in just over a week.

     

    Fingers crossed that week 2 will bring some respite.

     

    of course, there will be the odd bout of heavier rain which won't help those in the worst hit areas but it won't be relentless like it has been. also as you say, week 2 looks much calmer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Today's ECM mean for this Wednesday:

    Posted Image

    This is what it was showing for Wednesday 72 hours ago

    Posted Image

    Calling a spade a spade, it was a mile off. 72 hours ago, the chart was showing an easterly certainly midlands north, but today the easterly is over Iceland!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    My last post for a while

    Rjbw ^^^^ scandi shortwave

    Other than that the h5 anomalies are the same

    Confidence today

    80% mobility from the atlantic

    20% something less mobile from the east

    People slating the ECM are only looking at the UK under the microscope

    If your going to do that you may as well only go to t 60 on the models

    All models came up with the same solution then once the scandi shortwave was 'seen' it was game over as there was no infill of pressure moving west to force the atlantic low south

    Simple as really -

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

    My last post for a whileRjbw ^^^^ scandi shortwaveOther than that the h5 anomalies are the sameConfidence today80% mobility from the atlantic20% something less mobile from the eastS

    I think this sums up the mood perfectly......over and out...........
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Yes, it's not looking great across the board for coldies, the 00z runs appeared to have been fed data that suggests even more energy in the upper flow coming out of NE N America. 

     

    You may have seen John Holmes mention the spacing between the Rossby Waves, which is too wide by t+144 over the N Atlantic sector between the eastern NOAM trough and the European trough:

     

    Posted Imagewwjet_144.png

     

    Ideally need to see the gap close between the Euro and eastern N American trough. Unfortunately the American trough flattens out as it enters the N Atlantic on the 00z - so not the amplification that's needed to get an easterly.

     

    Not a great deal of joy from the 00Z GEFS either ...

     

    regarding this spacing the output from ECMWF-GFS this morning continues with something they, rather more so than NOAA (althoug the chart projection on this makes it less easy to see) had started a day or so ago, see below. That is the major trough pattern is almost just 3! The European one is more just an extension, not very stron at that this morning, of the eastern arm of the Canadian vortex/trough. If this warming out of that trough continues then a 500mb westerly flow MIGHT rebuild. It needs watching on these outputs to see if that does occur.

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Today's ECM mean for this Wednesday:

    Posted Image

    This is what it was showing for Wednesday 72 hours ago

    Posted Image

    Calling a spade a spade, it was a mile off. 72 hours ago, the chart was showing an easterly certainly midlands north, but today the easterly is over Iceland!

    Quite a few hundred of them to be precise. Well the hunt for cold continues but this is shaping up to be a nineties, noughties type winter with promises of cold in FI that never come to fruition.  Hopefully February will bring us a change of fortunes but for now the winds may have slackened but the rain looks like intensifying over the coming weeks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Well the ECM ens have flipped just like the op this morning, now favouring a return to a westerly set-up. I guess one could say that there is huge volatility in the output. On the other I just feel that this has been slipping away for days now. The models frankly have been dreadful and this latest tease will unbelievably mean that the ECM will be beaten in the 5 day verification stats by the lowly NAVGEM if the return to westerly scenario is correct.Can't just have a go at the ECM, it's ironic that the GFS also got seduced by a pattern, which the model rarely goes for and frequently has to backtrack to in embarrassing fashion.

    Well we have been here many times over the years, and this year is no exception! The very cold block does not go anywhere in a hurry and the problem is that the models are not correctly modelling the energy from the Atlantic correctly,hence weaker Atlantic, and a model output showing much colder contions from the East etc.it may be a little while yet to see if the models handle the energy correctly from what has been an unusually strong jet stream this year.Dont discount the cold because its not what the models are showing at the moment,there will be a lot of swapping and changing this coming week.... Edited by ANYWEATHER
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    Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
    Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 12th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
     
    All models show another period of unsettled weather knocking on the door of the West as I type with a trough of Low pressure moving East across the UK later today and tonight with a spell of rain moving over all areas with clear spells and showers overnight. Tomorrow shows another trough moving East through the day with more extensive showers crossing most areas perhaps heavy with hail and thunder in the SW. By Tuesday a weak ridge is shown to cross Eastwards with sunshine and a largely dry window of weather through the day. However, by midweek Low pressure deepens to the NW and brings strong winds and rain NE across all areas through the day. Throughout this period temperatures will be close to average but cold enough at times for some snow over Northern high hills and mountains.
     
    GFS then shows the latter end of the week remaining unsettled and sometimes wet as the model shows Low pressure persisting over or near the UK in largely Westerly winds never too strong but never too warm either. In the second half of the run today the weather still remains unsettled as further Low pressure moves ESE across the North before a system moves more directly SE across Britain and into Europe with pressure rising from the NW with a cold NE flow developing in the South at the end of the run with wintry showers and sharp frosts over the North.
     
    The GFS Ensembles show the wet January persisting with Low pressure after Low pressure continuing to flow across the Atlantic and the UK maintaining the very tight and average range between the members with regard to uppers and offering little chance of cold and snow.
     
    UKMO closes it's run on Day 6 with Low pressure slow moving and straddled down over Western Britain with a Southerly drift for many and troughs also embedded in the flow with rain, heavy at times commonplace especially towards the South and West, just where it is not needed.
     
    GEM today shows the unsettled flow persisting over the UK under Low pressure or a Westerly flow in association with Low pressure to the North. This would mean a continuation of wet and sometimes windy weather throughout the latter section of the run.
     
    NAVGEM today shows the UK as still the home to troughs of Low pressure ambling in from the Atlantic and stalling somewhat with rain at times in temperatures close to or perhaps a little below average, the latter more likely over the North and NE.
     
    ECM today also shows changeable weather with rain at times in temperatures close to average under a persistent trough of Low pressure lying down over the UK. A window of drier weather is shown towards Day 10 as a ridge crosses East but the next trough is shown crossing the Atlantic to reach the  West and NW of the UK soon after the term of the run.
     
    The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart today have declined away from last night's ridging with both charts indicating the most likely option being generally a Westerly flow with a continuation of rain at times for all.
     
     
    The Jet Stream remains the reason for this continued unsettled pattern as it continues to pump across the Atlantic firstly to the South of the UK and Southern Europe before moving North to cross the UK later in the output.
     
    In Summary today the weather looks almost certain to stay unsettled for the foreseeable future and sometimes thoroughly wet as Low pressure areas become strung out over the UK later this week before we probably drift into a more mobile Atlantic Westerly flow later in the run. As a result temperatures never look like being far from the seasonal average though it may feel somewhat chilly at times in the breeze and rain. There remains very little scope in the synoptic patterns as shown this morning for any drift into anything remotely very cold and wintry anytime soon and certainly not within the next 10-14 days.
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The Dutch ECM extended ens:  post-14819-0-97672400-1389519787_thumb.p  post-14819-0-75677500-1389519799_thumb.p

     

    For mid/end Jan they are hard to take; very poor.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    Awesome summary Martin; your analysis is always spot on and balanced , not getting suckered in by cold charts that are in the minority.

    It does seem likely that the next week will be unsettled and wet, following that I fear Azores high ridging pushing in. If this happens could be the pattern into February.

    It really does seem that snow is highly unlikely in the next fortnight and probably longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Yes Frosty very true,here are my own,and it has to be said very technical ratings of the model's at forecasting the non Easterly, using a range of smiley's :-

     

    GFS-Posted Image Posted Image

    UKMO-Posted Image  Posted Image

    ECM-  Posted Image   Posted ImagePosted Image  Posted Image

    BOM- Posted Image  Posted Image

    The best model summary there snowmut, all we can do is laugh at this joke of a winterPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    [quote name="SLEETY" post="2893516" timestamp="1389515064"

     

    so just forget this week and move on,as it looks like this winter will eventually turn very cold into feb,and it's been a very long time that we have had a severe feb.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    ......over and out...........

    rogerPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The GFS ensembles have very little scatter now out to the 27th, rainfall doesn't look as bad as it was during December but none the less it won't be welcome

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

    Just a quick look back in time. Older EC run valid for Tuesday:

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    FAX:

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    This, for Thursday, shows the EC perhaps 10C out in 850hPa temperatures:

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by forecaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    well i don't.

     

    we've gone from elation to despondency in just 3 days. considering there's 47 days left of winter (over half),

     

    i think i'll give it a chance....

     

    Yes some very knee jerk reactions this morning, the models are still very volatile and nothing is set in stone.

     

    It's that which makes Winter model watching in the UK so exiting.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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