Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Recommended Posts

we're not really in "the bad old days" though. getting snow in this country is like the lottery- the jackpot would be 1962/63.

watching the models is like watching the lottery numbers roll out. you hope but in reality, you know you're going to be at work on monday.

 

the occasional tenner would be nice though!

I know where Tim is coming from as December and the first 11 days of this month are following a similar path, what we did see in the bad old days was a block to our East wit sub zero temps whilst we where on the outside looking in. Of course there's still plenty of time for things to change and as others have posted the upstream pattern is far more favourable now that what it was, for me though we need to see this taking effect by the months end or we maybe looking at continuous FI charts showing the next close but no cigar scenario.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Out to day 6 and all models forecast a firmly cyclonic, maritime pattern which will see the first 18 days of January written off.

 

Division at day 10 but nothing indicating anything stellar.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Early differences in the early frames of the 18z which might become significant further down the line.BTW anyone know how i change my viewing of it on netweather?  I'm looking at the SLP and the 850pa maps, but instead of being side-by-side, my second choice is below my first choice

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a quick question...Does this type of 'energy' have units?

For what it's worth, OldMetMan used the term in an analysis yesterday. Maybe he picked it up here :-) Edited by Yarmy
Link to post
Share on other sites

I know where Tim is coming from as December and the first 11 days of this month are following a similar path, what we did see in the bad old days was a block to our East wit sub zero temps whilst we where on the outside looking in. Of course there's still plenty of time for things to change and as others have posted the upstream pattern is far more favourable now that what it was, for me though we need to see this taking effect by the months end or we maybe looking at continuous FI charts showing the next close but no cigar scenario.

 

yep, i agree. we've been seeing "potential" in the charts for weeks now. there is apparently an SSW brewing in possibly a week or maybe two. by the time its effects filter down to real time, (which could be another two weeks later) we are looking at the end of february. even then it might not fall favourably. by the time the ideal winter synoptics appear, it could be june at this rate!.

 

still, we're not even half way into winter yet and as we all know, the models try to predict what might happen, not what actually will happen.

what does happen is often a completely different story.......

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted Image

Previous run

Posted Image

Right

Bad - The core of the Scandi high is slightly further away from the UK

That's it

Good

-Deeper low over Russia supporting the high

-Better westwards push of WAA from the main area of heights

- Deeper low exiting Newfoundland = more amplified Atlantic ridge

 

Result - more energy going south east into Europe

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

and for those of you watching in black and white, the pink is next to the green..........Posted Image

Posted Image Posted Image post of the day for me!!!Anyway 18z looks like the low at 120 hrs  is further south ie 12 z.will it move south east and disrupt ???

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Chance of a decent easterly on the 18z if the azores and scandi high link at a higher lattitude.

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-132.png

not on the first attempt but that low over Southern Greenland should drop into the Iberian trough, the Steve Murr antichrist shortwave is also pulling away, so it might take a second bite of the cherry to get this.

Posted Image

Off course what are the chances of the GFS ballsing this up :p

 

I will however be interested to see if any ensembles go for a stronger Atlantic ridge at day 5 by deepening that low coming off Newfoundland.

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

What I have observed over the past 2 days is remarkable consistency (in relative cross-model terms) of the outer extent of the westward ridging of the Scandi high, sitting smack off the coast of Norway for around the 17th. Almost too consistent in line with extent of the chopping and changing we have seen

 

[post-5114-0-21432700-1389479045_thumb.pn

post-5114-0-89194600-1389479500_thumb.pn

post-5114-0-15891600-1389479505_thumb.pn

post-5114-0-03069400-1389479521_thumb.pn

Edited by s4lancia
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

ZZZZZZZ!!!!

 

Jeez I'm beginning to wonder whether theres a conspiracy between the global NWP to just deliver every possible roadblock to the high moving west, the trough takes so long to disrupt and then just when you think the high might split it and ridge over the top the next low moves in and phases with the limpet trough!

 

You need it ridging over the top before the next low, that would then force more energy to head se.

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

What I have observed over the past 2 days is remarkable consistency (in relative cross-model terms) of the outer extent of the westward ridging of the Scandi high, sitting smack off the coast of Norway for around the 17th. Almost too consistent in line with extent of the chopping and changing we have seen

 

Posted ImageRecm1441.gif

Posted ImageRgem1321.gif

Posted ImageRjma1201.gif

Posted ImageRtavn1261.png

 

Yes!

 

Its most noticeable on the ECM 12z,

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP

 

Looks like groundhog day for Norway from 72-240 hrs!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

After a ropey start the GFS got the high into a good position facing head on to the limpet trough, this is what we wanted, at least this didn't follow the UKMO raw output which is a crumb of comfort, I may have lost it completely had that been the case.

 

I may for the next few runs just post from the moan thread because this is turning into an incredibly frustrating model watch, and I'm fast losing my patience with proceedings!

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

ZZZZZZZ!!!!

 

Jeez I'm beginning to wonder whether theres a conspiracy between the global NWP to just deliver every possible roadblock to the high moving west, the trough takes so long to disrupt and then just when you think the high might split it and ridge over the top the next low moves in and phases with the limpet trough!

 

You need it ridging over the top before the next low, that would then force more energy to head se.

It is very frustrating, though with the GFS it is to be expected. There is hope and it could develop at around 5 days away. More amplification needed. 

Standard low resolution output resulting in my desk being karate chopped by my face.

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

ZZZZZZZ!!!!

 

Jeez I'm beginning to wonder whether theres a conspiracy between the global NWP to just deliver every possible roadblock to the high moving west, the trough takes so long to disrupt and then just when you think the high might split it and ridge over the top the next low moves in and phases with the limpet trough!

 

You need it ridging over the top before the next low, that would then force more energy to head se.

 

Might be that HAARP weather control. Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...