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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Cold at 168hrs, with rain/snow showers in the north. Under clear skies at night, places in the south likely to see temps below -3C/-4C:

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters
  • Location: Huddersfield

    Evening all just departing for leeds so will be able to do a detailed post on the wayVery nice 144 ECM look at norway close and you will see the shortwave lifting out to the northThat 1 single thing will support the westerly progression of the high much better now as it doesnt look like a beat up coke canI would say as it stands tonight we are at where we were 3 days ago again with the models with a scandi high threatening from the eastThis time there will be no scandi shortwave ...S

    Hi Steve I also like the ECM 168 chart it looks to me like quite a lot of energy drops well south of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    That elongated troughing is like a cold force field, the high is doing its best to ridge in but the brick wall says no.

     

    We should be grateful that the ECM hasn't followed the UKMO but that model hangs over tonights model outputs, I can't see anyway to cold from its T144hrs output, we can just hope that its horror show tonight doesn't verify.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    The scandi high proving very resilient on the ECM this evening.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The ECM has really beefed up the ridging from both the Scandi and Western US sides. Is the ECM going OTT again or has it spotted that the Polar vortex is still vulnerable.

    Unless the high manages the back westwards the outlook is very wet for the UK as Atlantic lows topple into the Abyss now known as Spain.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    There is only one place the high is going at t192 and that is south unless their

    is some major undercutting from the Atlantic.

     

    t192 very underwhelming whens the 18z out lol.

    Edited by cooling climate
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    There is only one place the high is going at t192 and that is south unless their

    is some major undercutting from the Atlantic.

     

    t192 very underwhelming whens the 18z out lol.

    At least we are getting some chilly Atlantic air and a few frosts when skies clear.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GFS and ECM are broadly similar in their evolutions, the question at this range is whether that troughing will shear apart allowing the high to ridge west.We do need some help from upstream here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    There is only one place the high is going at t192 and that is south unless theiris some major undercutting from the Atlantic. t192 very underwhelming whens the 18z out lol.

    Oh I don't know.. 216 looks like we do have some energy to stop the scandi high sinking.. Seen worse..
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Well after the promise of the GFS 12hrs run it all goes pear shaped with a very underwhelming UKMO output, the pattern is much further east than the GFS and its pretty dire in terms of rainfall. Parcels of low heights get thrown nw and stop any forcing from the block, that model is seriously beginning to get on my wick! I know its just a bunch of mathematical equations but it really is the misery model, it never goes out far enough to get a slating because it promised cold which it didn't deliver, it just sits there telling you to eat your sprouts!

    I also dislike the model for that reason. Cautious mild ramper. Sadly it has been the form horse this winter!
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well the ECM splits the trough which does give a chilly easterly

    Posted Image

    The Scandi high is sinking at a rate which makes a snail look like Usain Bolt!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem

    Cold at 168hrs, with rain/snow showers in the north. Under clear skies at night, places in the south likely to see temps below -3C/-4C:

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    The BI seems to be getting squeezed from the NW and from the NE by 15 850hPa air around that timeframe too. You get the feeling that something has to give and we will get some winteryness from one side or'tother. My feeling is that this cold spell isn't quite as dead as it seemed yesterday......

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Big question is, will the heights actually sink at the rate the models are predicting. God why do they have so much trouble dealing with this, yet with the Atlantic, they are never far out at all. Frustrating!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    The GFS and ECM are broadly similar in their evolutions, the question at this range is whether that troughing will shear apart allowing the high to ridge west.We do need some help from upstream here.

     

    Yes, we really need some amplification to work downstream across the Atlantic from eastern N America - which will allow a closed low to form over Sern Europe and pressure to rise to north of this low over the UK - and, hey bingo, that's just what's happening on 12z ECM by t+216!

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    It seems that the models haven't yet got a handle on the speed at which the high sinks and how resistant it is to the Atlantic. There is still time and potential for changes that might aid the westward advance of cold air. Whilst deep cold seems unlikely in the short term, we do not need deep cold for snow, especially if low thicknesses are involved and, as on the ECM at 216 hours, an Easterly flow which would bring lower dewpoints. Yet in spite of all this, I think for many the biggest concern is how much dry weather we have. The 240 hours chart on the ECM, though far away, would at least bring some respite to flood hit areas. 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ignoring 850hpa s for a moment. Evolution is as some could have perceived, ecm has wobbled vastly recently, but will soon become form horse.and befofe anyone quotes,, yes the models ARE like horses if you know the trainer and animal, you can gage a better perception of possible outcomes( prognosis) the flip is imenent, , imo!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Sorry, meant for the regional.

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    High pressure starting to build at t240 as it turns colder

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Wish it was only from the Scandi side. Wish that azores high would just do one. All it has done is poke its snout in all winter and stopped any kind of cold forming. Look at how its stopping the NW/SE alignment of the jet which supply's energy to form the lows in the Med. Want to just nuke that azores high! 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I think its unlikely we're going to see the stalemate as shown by the ECM,I think we will  in future model outputs show one giving way sooner.

     

    Lets hope its that troughing! this is a very complex situation for the modelling as they weigh up the block versus the Atlantic, I think this can be resolved quicker with a westwards correction and those more positive anomalies getting further nw into  eastern Greenland, that may well tip the balance but we have to factor in tonights UKMO raw output which is too far east and already past the point of no return at T144hrs.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Great ecm,the building blocks are there,not perfect but the best output in the last 3days...let the battle begin!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

    edit, will re-post. 

     

    Edited by Barking_Mad
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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
    I dont know if this is of interest...
     

    The Siberian high has awakened! With Aleutian troughing, pattrn favors future displacement of Strat Polar Vortex

     

    Posted Image

     
     

    This year's PV has been diligent, but Cohen's research shows Sib High/Aleutian Low ptrn can precede a SSWE by 4-5 wks

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Barking_Mad
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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    It does seem that something is about to give in this display of bravado between East and West.

     

    Perhaps low pressure forecast near the Aleutian Islands and a fairly positive PNA profile as a result could be the upstream ammo we need to tip things in our favour?

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Nicely surprised with today's runs in general, we have most certainly stopped the backwards trend we have had to endure since Thursday morning and which ended with a shocking set of 12Zs on Friday.

    I noted this morning that ECM had moved in the right direction and would be paying close attention to this evening runs, and yes it has continued the postive steps towards cold and that scandi high is putting up some fight. If similar size steps in the right direction continued over the next couple of runs then heck why should we not expect some nice charts for the back end of next week.

    In addition to the above GFS edged in the right direction and I have read that it's ensembles were more easy on the eye this evening as well, shame about UKMO but hey ho and I might just take a peep of tonight's pub run.

    Ps here in north west Kent it is already 1.3 and a frost is forming on my car, so could be worse even now.

    Have a nice evening.

    Edited by TSNWK
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