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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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whilst its quiet, it does need stating that we havent passed the tipping point quite yet. we do have a developing cold pool to our east in tandem with a scandi riidge.  it does take quite a turnaround to bring that to our shores (ie. a sustained euro trough) but it isnt yet impossible. yes, she is clearing her throat but the curtain hasnt yet gone up although gavin is tugging hard at the ropes !

I find it very strange you of all people are posting regarding the lady on the 10th of Jan BA
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Whoa... some folk interpreting a simple tweet to an anti-snow colleague in Glos way too deeply!!! Yes, UKMO view is for return to W/NW mobility into the 10-15d trend period BUT they stress "greater than average uncertainty" even by next weekend. Equally they note a "good signal" for return to the broadly westerly regime after a quieter interlude (with perhaps a slack broad easterly component at same phase) BUT again stress wide range of (currently minority) other outcomes into trend period. Indeed a senior colleague only yesterday cautioned how the failed easterly emerged v suddenly and against ongoing consensus; he advises that being too prescriptive looking ahead is currently "bonkers" given potential for further swings in output and the "ammo" of deep cold lurking out east. Much water still to go under bridge this winter.

once again we have some misinterpreted with one tweet. So its no wonder possibilities or otherwise are so misinterpreted at times! Optimism in to short currently.
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Mods, if you move this post to another thread can you PM and tell me where to so that I can check back for replies please.

 

Ok, genuine questions ...

 

Why do different models offer different solutions? Why do models rarely agree until almost T24? Why do they get so many details wrong the further out they go?

 

The reason I ask is that with modern technology these days it appears (to me anyway) that forecasting (certainly long range in Winter) is no further forward than it was say a decade or so ago.

 

Why do I not see any tangible improvement in forecasting the weather, particularly but not exclusively, during Winter (I must admit I only really have an interest in Winter or extreme weather). How can various models predict varying solutions until almost T24?

 

Is this an investment issue?

 

Furthermore, if FI is almost futile, why do the models go this far out? What is the point? Would it not be better to produce more accurate modelling say to 5/7 days rather than say 10 or more?

 

These questions aren't borne out of frustration at lack of cold/snow, more why do we seem to be no further forward on long range forecasting than I think we were roughly 10 years ago. Or are we further forward and if we are, then why do we see models flip about like a fish in hot water?

 

Thanks.

(purely biased towards MetO)For the Met Office, in terms of skill and verification improvements please consult these links;UK NWP Index - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/numerical-modelling/verification/uk-nwp-indexGlobal NWP Index - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/numerical-modelling/verification/global-nwp-indexForecast accuracy and how this is measured - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts & also http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/d/h/13_0068_Accuracy_v09.pdf This is not neccesarily the thread to discuss how models reach their solutions and the how the nature of NWP inevitably will result in greater degrees of uncertainty relating to certain synoptic setups. I'm sure there is an area of this forum where those topics can be discussed! (and would be more than happy to be directed there).Relating to the last decade, the Met Office have made huge advances in their forecasting skill (and are rightfully the joint best operational weather service globally!), and are regularly set targets to reach (achieved and tracked by using KPIs and BPMs to retain their world class status).Briefly in terms of investment, you may remember that even during government science budget freezes, MetO still gets a new supercomputer at the cost of tens of million, every few years!

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Sorry but if that CFS model was correct from what it was showing during most of Autumn we'd have had non stop northern blocking since December

 

I'm afraid CFS is no better or worse than any other model

Your right back in October/November i remember CC posting these charts and they were showing this kind of output back then for Feb,But these show just a likely trend and we are not talking about showing these as a likelihood like back in Oct, Its next month inwhich must have more potential as a trend that is =(Possessing or displaying the qualities or characteristics that make something probable)Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Whoa... some folk interpreting a simple tweet to an anti-snow colleague in Glos way too deeply!!!

Yes, UKMO view is for return to W/NW mobility into the 10-15d trend period BUT they stress "greater than average uncertainty" even by next weekend. Equally they note a "good signal" for return to the broadly westerly regime after a quieter interlude (with perhaps a slack broad easterly component at same phase) BUT again stress wide range of (currently minority) other outcomes into trend period. Indeed a senior colleague only yesterday cautioned how the failed easterly emerged v suddenly and against ongoing consensus; he advises that being too prescriptive looking ahead is currently "bonkers" given potential for further swings in output and the "ammo" of deep cold lurking out east. Much water still to go under bridge this winter.

 

"Bonkers", "Ammo"? He really should be posting on here.Posted Image

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I find it very strange you of all people are posting regarding the lady on the 10th of Jan BA

 

regarding this particular easterly .....................   i dont doubt she'll be off on her jollys in the next 7 weeks !

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Gotto agree with Gavin D on this one, CFS is shocking, was showing cold fantasy charts through Nov to Jan, as though James Madden had plotted the damn thing

You're over exaggerating more than the CFS does.

 

When the CFS builds a block it likes to destroy faster than the GFS, it was showing a 6-7 days wintry period tops after that I re-introduced the PV to Greenland and caused a spalsh of purples scattered across the Atlantic.

 

Before people go bashing another model maybe you should look into what it was actually displaying first. Plus whenever me or anyone else brings up the CFS its usually just one of seven runs displaying cold the others likely to be zonal and normal weather conditions for the time of the year. 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Be nice to start getting some FI eye candy on the go, something to focus on and put the failed Easterly behind us...It's only a matter of time before we get a proper cold spell surely.

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Regarding an ever weakening Vortex looking at this it seems to be going that way Posted Image

 

Posted Image

What's this? - I presume this anomaly chart has come from just one chosen run? - unfortunately people should follow the CFS 1/9 months runs regularly and judge for themselves, this model has come in for unfair criticism this winter as people 'chose' preferred runs to post such charts. 

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When the CFS pressure anomalies chart shows a lovely big red azores high, that has potential for lots of warmth over the uk, Well put it this way, Persons that search for a mild/warm set up.... say now't!

It seems to me they only give it criticism when it shows a cold set up.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Be nice to start getting some FI eye candy on the go, something to focus on and put the failed Easterly behind us...It's only a matter of time before we get a proper cold spell surely.

OK here's some eye candy

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

There's a lot of scatter after the 20th & at least a straggler has appeared. Some of the GEFS are still showing an easterly trying to make its way to us.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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What's this? - I presume this anomaly chart has come from just one chosen run? - unfortunately people should follow the CFS 1/9 months runs regularly and judge for themselves, this model has come in for unfair criticism this winter as people 'chose' preferred runs to post such charts. 

 

Here's the latest.

 

Posted Image

 

 

I know people say you should look for broad trends, runs averaged, etc but personally I'm not convinced there's any value there either. To me it's just experimental.

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Looking at the ECM 00z run it is clear that Scandi-Russian high is going to be another of many players in the next few weeks and possibly beyond.  Scandinavia and Russia are going to cool down rapidly in the next few days.  Any disruption in the Atlantic will significantly raise our chances of tapping into that frigid continental cold.

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; he advises that being too prescriptive looking ahead is currently "bonkers" given potential for further swings in output and the "ammo" of deep cold lurking out east. Much water still to go under bridge this winter.

yes excellent point,If you look how close the deep cold  air gets at t+120 this morning it really is too early to predict the final outcome.

 

have the models really nailed the pattern towards the end of next week?I have lost count the number of times the pattern has looked completely different at the end of the week than what was shown when viewing the week ahead forecast on Countryfile

 

And i'm very surprised that some of the more senior posters here in the forum "appear" to have written off this cold-spell so soon.

 

All to play for folks,

 

Roll-on the 12's Posted Image

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So rollin', rollin', rollin', GFS! out to 84h  marginal improvement over the 06z with a little more energy going SE and pressure thus a little lower to the South, Also a tad more amplification upstream. Can we get some sort of frontal snow event later as per Nick's wishes?

 

Edit

 

108h the low is over Ireland instead of NW of Scotalnd on the 06z, quite a difference at this range but definitely in our favour.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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At 108 and the 0c 850 uppers are a couple of hundred miles further west than the 6z.  From tiny acorns and all that!!!!

 

12z

Posted Image

 

6z

Posted Image

Edited by Ice Day
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