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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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I am still learning could not work out if it was good or not?

It is very good if you compare it to the 12z

Steps forward again today.Carinthian will be happier.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011100/UW144-7.GIF?11-06

The blocking going nowhere soon

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011100/UN144-21.GIF?11-06

The ECM desperately trying to get energy south in to Europe

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011100/ECH1-216.GIF?11-12

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Ok it doesn't work out but I challenge anyone to tell me this is a set up we can't work with over the next few runs. I think this is very good progress.

 

ECM 144

 

Posted Image

 

 

Tempting fate but I have a really good feeling about the 12z runs this evening. I think things are turning back in our favour all be it gradually.

Edited by The Eagle
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Ok it doesn't work out but I challenge anyone to tell me this is a set up we can't work with over the next few runs. I think this is very good progress.

 

ECM 144

 

Posted Image

 

 

Tempting fate but I have a really good feeling about the 12z runs this evening. I think things are turning back in our favour all be it gradually.

 

 

Models really seem to progress that fairly promising chart quickly. At 144 the EC jet profile looks good. Very meridional out to our west, diving into North Africa. However, it seems like a split in that jet south of Greenland allows a depression to form there (with double jet structure - i.e. entrance and exit regions of separate streaks), which could be the spanner in the works.

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the met office have a nightmare trying to sort this mess out.

 

They must be tearing their hair out.

 

You've got very cold air trying to move in from the East,and low pressure trying to move in from the West with mild air.

 

Fascinating and some places may get buried by snow or suffer further flooding before this is sorted out.

 

 I defy anyone to try and make a forecast for 4-5 days out with any confidence at all.

 

Fl starts about Tuesday

Edited by SLEETY
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I don't think the met office will be struggling, they have mogreps plus all the other additional data not available in public domain. It's a potentially exciting outlook for coldies, certainly when compared to the dross so far. :-)

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Cant post charts,on mobile.But watch the vortex move away from greenland over the next wk or so.It will get sucked north west towards the main area of vortex!

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interesting offerings from the euros at day 6. I wonder if the ECM ens will develop more colder runs from there than yesterday's output. it seems the fat lady has a frog in her throat. she may get rid of it by this evening or it may take her a little longer. Sustained euro low heights - remember!

I would forget the strat for the time being. It will take care of itself. within a fortnight, there shuld be few strat affect reasons for HLB to be restricted. In the meantime, we have blocking trying to set up but it will struggle as the upper winds in the arctic become westerly. That should drop out in a couple of weeks.

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Looks like the earlier strat warming that will give us the lull in the Atlantic will not benefit the UK with respect to cold, cooler and drier yes, but nothing cold. It always looked to me like a small window of opportunity where we needed the lull to change the NH profile to maybe keep the UK in a colder flow before the PV got its mojo back.

 

All models are now showing around D10 the return of the Atlantic and some sort of zonal flow, though timing, latitude and ferocity vary, dependant on how the UK-sEuro upper trough is dealt with:

 

GEM: post-14819-0-77194600-1389428063_thumb.p ECMpost-14819-0-41327700-1389428070_thumb.g  GFSpost-14819-0-08165500-1389428089_thumb.p

 

We have to now await another slow down from the current projected strat warming or for the PV to blow itself out. Late Jan maybe? The returning Atlantic should not be as potent as December I would have thought (although initially when the gates open this may not be the case), so a greater chance for pressure to be higher in the south at least. The GEFS offer little in the way of cold:

 

post-14819-0-18355300-1389428389_thumb.g

 

Though more seasonal (not hard), but that is no surprise as this time of year is our best opportunity for sustained cold and snow. If the jet is further south, the north may have a better chance in FI for some temporary wintriness.

 

Fingers crossed for our next shot.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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ok so here we go again!

 

the models are slowly weakening the low pressure system from the alantic !

 

it then splits into two pieces of residual energy,

so one good thing its going to be less of a system so rain and wind not really a serious issue!

 

as yesterday it was looking rather likely another monsoon outbreak.

 

the other thing is the alantic slowing much more and the northern hemisphere charts on the ukmo are showing a slowdown in vortex energy to good sign.

 

the azores high at this moment could well be our saving grace as this ridge pushing nw could well be aiding is slowing low pressure systems helping to the scandi ridge to establish itself better.

 

the split low pressure situated over the uk is either going to hang around over us until it fizzles out or will send one part north and east over the top of the scandi heights or go south of coarse south would be better then we will have although nothing wintry as sorts but it would be cooler still.

 

there still is not enough lower heights into Europe which would help a lot more but the split low over the uk if this does go south then there maybe enough energy to pull the scandi heights futher west.

 

im going to stick my neck on the line but as others have suggested this is nowhere near a done deal there is once again a flip rather than a flop this morning this model watching has absolutely shredded my nerves but im gaining confidence on what the more experienced posters have been suggesting in the last few days.

 

its by far still up for grabs but looking likely a much slower evolution towards anything colder.

until I see a dominating alantic like we have all witnessed just recently then I for one will back track in saying that feb is by no means out of the question for cold.

 

Posted Image

although the ecm last charts are absolutely not what we want to see but up until 192 they are pretty good and full of potential as nick sussex would say we need more engery going se now from my eyes theres only two ways in can all go south southeast north or ne its so finely balanced.

Posted Image

lose that bump of azores ridging into the mid alantic then we get energy going the right direction.

Posted Image

what we don't want is this then I will be thinking its game over.....

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Looking at the ECM postage stamps quite a variation in terms of that low to the west of the UK at T120hrs:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!

od!enfo!enplot!2014011100!!/

 

I think theres a chance of a cold undercut , you can see how low pressure is drawn like a magnet in to the UK and down towards Spain on the ECM operational, the one thing thats missing is the reluctance to take some energy se which would help tilt things towards a colder feed in from the se.

 

Thats still possible, the high though must maintain itself sufficiently north, we'll see whether theres any legs in this possible interest during the day.

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Looking at the ECM postage stamps quite a variation in terms of that low to the west of the UK at T120hrs:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!

od!enfo!enplot!2014011100!!/

 

I think theres a chance of a cold undercut , you can see how low pressure is drawn like a magnet in to the UK and down towards Spain on the ECM operational, the one thing thats missing is the reluctance to take some energy se which would help tilt things towards a colder feed in from the se.

 

Thats still possible, the high though must maintain itself sufficiently north, we'll see whether theres any legs in this possible interest during the day.

the ukmo aswell has potential to nick its so finely balanaced Posted Image

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Pretty much unanimous across the models this morning - no real cold spell anywhere within sight & probably unlikely this month.

 

Posted Image

 

A very zonal set of ENS average to mild temps and not quite so unsettled as has been. If very mediocre non eventful British winter weather floats your boat then it will be a good period coming up.

If not it's going to be pretty boring. ... Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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Just some early thoughts on the fickleness of the models!

 

In only a few days, we have seen a pretty good consensus on a blocking easterly, degenerate into a bit of a shambles, with the Atlantic flow ultimately winning again.

 

However, what strikes me most is that, even though we have the right combination of upper air factors already forming - upper high to the N, disrupting trough to the W, very cold air continuing to feed SW over Scandinavia - what seems to be lacking is a real and significant amplification of the upper flow, from N America all across to Europe.

 

Having said that, the GFS so far today, shows a very interesting potential development when it gets to T120, with a respectable HP over Scandinavia, and LP lining up over and to our W, giving every impression that the upper trough associated with it is going to disrupt, as earlier charts in this run have been predicting to keep on happening prior to that point. This is, I think, the pivotal time where the pattern could shift dramatically in favour of some real blocking plus cold continental flow.

 

But, as I say, not enough upper flow amplification showing for anything persistent - not yet at least. I still think it will, but the upstream flow especially needs to change in that regard.

 

As I said the other day, modelling this kind of development is not easy and changes can and do happen very quickly sometimes, catching the models off guard.

 

Later runs may give us a clearer picture, but it sure looks interesting!

I think the models do have a lot to deal with the azores high low pressure to our west of over us the scandi ridge which is not a regular feature in the models so I agree with your post makes perfect sense to me.

Pretty much unanimous across the models this morning - no real cold spell anywhere within sight & probably unlikely this month.

 

Posted Image

 

A very zonal set of ENS average to mild temps and not quite so unsettled as has been. If very mediocre non eventful British winter weather floats your boat then it will be a good period coming up.

If not it's going to be pretty boring. ... Posted Image

yes but look at the huge scatter around 20th of January....

and looking at the rain spikes around the 15th onwards would suggest the low pressure makes it in or around the uk.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 11th 2014.
 
All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing slowly East across the UK today and tonight with fine and sunny weather following any early rain clearing the SE. Also the showers in the NW, wintry in hills will also clear later. Through tomorrow the models show the approach of a trough of Low pressure from a mid Atlantic depression bringing increasing Southerly winds and rain across Western districts first and Eastern areas overnight Sunday to be followed by a showery SW flow for Monday. The showers may be heavy and thundery in the SW but more scattered elsewhere. Through Monday night a further trough crosses all areas with further heavy rain with a return to showery weather on Tuesday. By Wednesday Low pressure is shown in close proximity to the UK from all models with further rain and showers a risk for all especially in the South and West. Temperatures towards midweek look like staying largely close to average with any slightly below average values restricted to the far North and NE.
 
GFS shows a UK trough continuing in situ for the rest of the week. However, the Azores High will become very strong later and gradually the influence from Low pressure will become more restricted towards Northern areas as the Jet Stream shifts North again where rain at times will continue in strong Westerly winds while Southern areas see longer drier spells and rather cloudy weather also under Westerly breezes with temperatures close to or somewhat above average for late January.
 
The GFS Ensembles reflect the above picture quite well with some wet weather for many next week giving way to somewhat drier weather with less rainfall especially across the South as High pressure to the South gives relatively mild weather given the time of year.
 
UKMO closes it's run on Friday with a large and complex Low structure across the UK and away to the North of the UK too maintaining the rainfall issues for many areas on a regular basis through the end of next week in average temperatures and winds that will be fresh but not troubling.
 
GEM today keeps Low pressure over or near the UK throughout next week with plenty of wind and rain at times. Very late in the run the balance of pressure rises somewhat from the SW but insufficiently so to prevent cloud and rain from Atlantic troughs to continue to move in on Westerly breezes and average temperatures at the end of the run.
 
NAVGEM this morning shows Low pressure somewhat further North as early as later next week but the weather would remain no less unsettled with rain at times from active weather systems moving East over the UK in strong winds at times too and once more very average temperatures for January.
 
ECM today also show all of next week and weekend as very unsettled as Low pressure remains close by over or just to the South or West of the UK. This means these areas will see the wettest conditions with further flooding issues likely later next week. In the far reaches of the run this model too shows signs of rising pressure from the SW and while changeable weather looks likely to persist the weather would warm up as Atlantic Westerlies between High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North looks like developing in response to a Jet stream moving back North.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows a trend for the UK trough over next week to move away slowly East with the Azores High likely to become a major player in the UK weather at the end of the month as it gradually pushes Low pressure further North and brings mild Atlantic air and some rain at times across the UK with most of the rain likely in the North later with at last some drier and benign conditions in the South hinted at.
 
 
The GFS Jet Stream forecast is for the flow to continue to flow East at fairly low latitudes currently in a poorly defined state before it strengthens over the Atlantic next week and on across Southern Europe through next week. Longer term it is shown to move North over the Atlantic around an Azores High while splitting with one arm staying over Southern Europe while a Northern arm sets up across the Northern Atlantic and over to Scandinavia later.
 
In Summary today the weather typified of Winter 2013/14 so far continues on this morning for another week to 10 days. While the stormy weather of the Christmas and New Year period looks less likely there will still be a lot of rain for some areas, especially in the South and West as Low pressure remains in close proximity to the UK over the next week to 10 days. Longer term the trend is shown for the Jet flow to shift North as the Azores High becomes a strong feature with a Westerly flow shown later by some output. Depressions are then shown to be sent further North with something of a North/South split possible with the most rain returning to the North while mild weather looks like being the order of the day everywhere later under Westerly breezes. Any chances of significant cold anytime within the next two weeks anywhere look very slim this morning and with an Azores High very strong in two weeks time I would suggest this could be extended even longer.
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Pretty much unanimous across the models this morning - no real cold spell anywhere within sight & probably unlikely this month.

 

Posted Image

 

A very zonal set of ENS average to mild temps and not quite so unsettled as has been. If very mediocre non eventful British winter weather floats your boat then it will be a good period coming up.

If not it's going to be pretty boring. ... Posted Image

Yes on the face of it not up to much, but those ensembles are not giving a picture of the synoptics, with the block to the east  if you look at the individual members nearly half have a continental flow, with some of those backing  the trend of the ECM.

 

I think being realistic I'm not sure we can attain a clean easterly here unless theres alot more energy going se and some changes near Greenland however a cold undercut and some frontal snow does have a chance, remember here you will not need the depth of cold for that.

 

Looking at the ECM De Bilt ensembles and following on from the postage stamps, the split is around 15 for and 35 against a more favourable disruption of that troughing, essentially if the low is too far east and positively tilted its game over.

 

This is a good test now for the operationals in this set up, do they lead or follow?

Edited by nick sussex
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the ukmo aswell has potential to nick its so finely balanced.

Pretty much unanimous across the models this morning - no real cold spell anywhere within sight & probably unlikely this month.

So which is it, cold potential or no signs of cold? They can't both be right?
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Yes on the face of it not up to much, but those ensembles are not giving a picture of the synoptics, with the block to the east  if you look at the individual members nearly half have a continental flow, with some of those backing  the trend of the ECM.

 

I think being realistic I'm not sure we can attain a clean easterly here unless theres alot more energy going se and some changes near Greenland however a cold undercut and some frontal snow does have a chance, remember here you will not need the depth of cold for that.

or maybe the other option is for the azores heights to settle over the uk like it did around the end of November start of December this also started out as a easterly onslaught.

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So which is it, cold potential or no signs of cold? They can't both be right?

Looks to me that the models have moved back towards more of an easterly influence if that continues today then the charts we were drooling over 2/3 days ago could be back in with a chance of verifying.
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the gem has gone from hero to zero

Posted Image

yesterdays jma hero to zero

Posted Image

ukmo 50/50

Posted Image

gfs up until t144 50/50 but later looks messy

Posted Image

navgem awfull

Posted Image

 

I said in an earlier post about the azores high positive statement I take it back and all the models show this azores  its a pain in the ass.

with low pressure systems to out northwest and high pressure to our southwest its a nightmare but I still feel there is hope for feb.

I just hope the alantic onslaught don't win out again because flooding really is a massive issue right now.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Looks like the Brazillian model is giving us what we wantPosted Image

I think that may just be a little daydream you have just before going off to sleep.

 

 

On a serious note some, interesting modelling this morning from both the GFS and ECM, the GEM also, the whole will it, won’t it easterly is as usual, an evolving situation and as far as I can see what we want is to see Stella charts pop up at 72-96hrs. Stella charts at 144hrs plus will fall over 90% of the time, my advice at the moment (actually at anytime) is to view anything post 96hrs with a large pinch of salt.

Edited by weather eater
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Morning folks. Any news on the ECM ensembles, I actually thought the ECM showed a little potential around144 to 192 and be interested if this was backed up.

Cheers.

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The reason IMHO why the Scandi High didn't take hold is the pesky Euro upper ridge, highlighted on the ECM mean at T168:

 

post-14819-0-08916600-1389430968_thumb.g

 

This merges with the Scandi high and we then get a large Euro/Scandi conjoined block (high). This prevents the LP systems from undercutting the Scandi high. All models are showing this to an extent. Several days ago when the models were undercutting there was this ridge but the sustained flow from the Atlantic over rode that signal. More recent runs have cut off the undercutting low from its rear flowing phased siblings and allowed the AH to ridge in the Atlantic; the slacker flow of lower height enabling the Euro upper ridge to freely stretch to Scandi.

 

And we lose.

 

Interestingly, and that is why the ECM has some hope, where GFS continues with the disconnect with the potential undercutting low and the upper trough gets cut off, ECM renews the connect allowing for some feed into the trough (T192):

 

GFS:   post-14819-0-70177600-1389431641_thumb.p  ECM:  post-14819-0-57075800-1389431582_thumb.g

 

Knowing the ECM tendency to over egg its op after T168 I have only a residue hope that will come to anything.

 

The Dutch extended ens are poor: post-14819-0-21036200-1389431753_thumb.p

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Pretty much unanimous across the models this morning - no real cold spell anywhere within sight & probably unlikely this month.

Posted Image

A very zonal set of ENS average to mild temps and not quite so unsettled as has been. If very mediocre non eventful British winter weather floats your boat then it will be a good period coming up.

If not it's going to be pretty boring. ... Posted Image

Still three weeks of January left so a bit early to be calling the weather for such a long period, Yes, IF you take this morning's models at face value it doesn't look great, but remember that these models only three days ago were convinced about an Easterly next week, so why should we believe them any more now than we did then?

There is potential at mid range, and FI is very early at the moment.

Edited by Chalk Serpent
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Not great at reading the models and nothing scientific or meteorological here but,

I really feel this is a classic case of all models dropping the idea of cold to pick it up again 3 or 4 days later.

The only factor I can use with this statement is experience of reading and learning all the dramas unfold over the years on here and fantastic posts from far more experienced posters.

It's already starting to look a bit better for coldies this morning so let's see what today brings.

As I say just my opinion

But if I'm wrong then no real problem there's always feb

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