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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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But its been well advertised that no cold pattern, if it was going to occur, was likely at all until at least the end period of January and more likely into February. I know I have said that myself countless times. 

 

The way I see it is completely the opposite  - it shouldn't be a surprise at all that we are still waiting and could well have to wait for a little longer. The period in question hasn't even arrived yet and I've considered the recent missed easterly and the borderline one under the microscope for potential snow next weekend a large bonus if they occured against the background pattern. I've said that so many times as well on this thread..

 

Its strange and rather a new experience to find myself seeing the model output meeting expectations whilst it seems to be frustrating and disappointing so many others. There may be no guarantees that the changes occuring will lead to snowflakes over the UK down the road, but whilst none of us are prophets, lets at least wait till the period in question before venting so much frustration and making so many snap decisions. Its only the weather !Posted Image

Great post Tamara, I just hope that people keep reading your posts and updates. The more who do, the less we will see over dramatic reactions to individual model runs and there will be a much better general understanding of the current situation. :)

I firmly believe that the strengthening Arctic High will at least lead to a weakening or relocating PV, which will have effects for us down the line. Whether those effects will result in cold and snow remains to be seen!

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But its been well advertised that no cold pattern, if it was going to occur, was likely at all until at least the end period of January and more likely into February. I know I have said that myself countless times. 

 

The way I see it is completely the opposite  - it shouldn't be a surprise at all that we are still waiting and could well have to wait for a little longer. The period in question hasn't even arrived yet and I've considered the recent missed easterly and the borderline one under the microscope for potential snow next weekend a large bonus if they occured against the background pattern. I've said that so many times as well on this thread..

 

Its strange and rather a new experience to find myself seeing the model output meeting expectations whilst it seems to be frustrating and disappointing so many others. There may be no guarantees that the changes occuring will lead to snowflakes over the UK down the road, but whilst none of us are prophets, lets at least wait till the period in question before venting so much frustration and making so many snap decisions. Its only the weather !Posted Image

Hi Tamara that may well be, only a fool writes of the rest of winter in mid Jan but I was only commenting of the model output we see from the main models for the next couple of weeks and the lack of any real pattern change we have seen over the last couple, despite being occasionally tantalised by the models. For myself I just enjoy model watching, cold and snow would just be a bonus, I certainly don’t often get sucked in by it.

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The Manchester ens paint a mixed picture - 850's looks uncertain past Friday so it could go either way, but there does seem do be a lot of rain spikes yet again, we do need a period of drying out now, it's soggy and muddy on grassy areas and not to forget those who have been flooded out - that in itself will take a while to clear even the sewerage smell out of homes.

 

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Edited by Gaz1985
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Just read Gibby's update on his site nothing wintry on his latest update I'm afraid

And why should their  be as I'm finding it increasingly difficult to make a case for a pattern change to anything cold, yes there is uncertainty in the model output from next weekend onwards, but that's all it is uncertainty and for me the form horse looks to be a continuation of an Atlantic driven pattern as we head into February and beyond, hopefully I'm wrong.

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Hi Ian, I would like to thank you for your invaluable contribution to this forum. I am intrigued by your post as it seems to me that there is model consensus for the weather next weekend, ie scandi high waning and easing back east and all eyes turning to the north west. Is this not cut and dried yet?

Note I'm not talking cold/snow prospects in my comment. I am utterly ambiguous on all that 'hunt for cold stuff'. I was more struck by the deep cyclonicity and the positioning/broadscale variance from other operational centre DET solutions.
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Trouble is low confidence does not mean cold and snow are hiding around the corner waiting to pounce and a spread ensemble suite also doesn’t mean that either, I wouldn’t mind a tenner for every time the ensembles had been touted as a savour on this thread, only for them to have no more meaning than just following the ops. Yes there is uncertainty, there is always uncertainty past 96hrs or 120-144hrs it can vary a bit and nobody should be giving up the winter or even the next couple of weeks based on any model projection that would be foolish, but I think its far to say that there is very little in the current modelling to suggest a major change is on the way, just a few hints that there is some possibilities. 

hmm....you've misread me there, I didn't infer that snow and cold were around the corner as such, or by the ensemble suite....My point was that there is a large spread at a fairly short time scale and as such this is indicative of that the output is 'up in the air' (pardon the pun) so notHing is written in stone and anything can and probably will happen. The operationals at face value don't look great (or bad, depending on your synoptic 'leanings') but the ensemble spread is large enough to make the operationals almost irrelevant post T96-120 Posted Image

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Thank the lord the Countryfile extended forecast has put an end to all this uncertainty...

ha! Funniest 2 mins of forecasting I've seen in years. Very honest though..basically all detail confidence falls apart 72 hours plus.Speaks volumes really...

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Very flat & mobile output from the ECM with the jet stream powering back up, storm ravaged UK round two looking very likely. Just no end in sight this winter! Further misery and flooding for many coupled with severe gales at times.

Yes very accurate assessment of the ECM output - not a pretty sight.

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Thank the lord the Countryfile extended forecast has put an end to all this uncertainty...ha! Funniest 2 mins of forecasting I've seen in years. Very honest though..basically all detail confidence falls apart 72 hours plus.Speaks volumes really...

all i  say even if  you look deep into fantasy world the  only places  which might see snow any  time soon is Scotland, and  the  high  parts  of  north of  england from  about jan 30 the  rest of  us  is more  rain from  the  west

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 19th 2014.
 
All models show the coming week as another changeable one as further troughs move in from the West and NW through the week with a band of rain moving East on Tuesday replacing the quiet and chilly weather of tomorrow when sunny spells will be plentiful away from any persistent fog. By Wednesday the trough is shown to of made it's way across to Eastern Britain where it could stay wet and chilly for a while into the day. The West will become drier and brighter with scattered showers in a chilly NW breeze. Later in the week a ridge of High pressure moves across Britain lingering over the South into the start of the weekend before strengthening Westerly winds take over by Saturday. Throughout the week all models suggest nothing particularly wet or cold though frosts will be more frequent than of late both early and late in the week.
 
GFS then shows the second half of the run with a notable Azores High sometimes displaced closer to the British Isles, certainly more than of late. This coupled with a strong Jet Stream powering over the Atlantic sets up a strong Westerly flow across Britain veering towards the NW on occasion. Rainfall will be much reduced to that of late, especially over the South while northern areas in particular will see some strong winds at times in temperatures never far from the seasonal average.
 
The GFS Ensembles are another indifferent set, basically showing that there is a lot of mileage left in an Atlantic based pattern fuelled by an active Jet stream with rain at times for all throughout the run and temperatures close to or a little below the average at times. The operational was a warmer outlier regularly in the second half.
 
UKMO tonight shows Low pressure near Iceland with strong Westerly breezes over the UK with a trough crossing East through Saturday with some rain for all, heaviest in the North.
 
GEM shows changeable weather persisting over next weekend and start to the new week as more disturbances run SE across the UK bringing rain followed by clearer and more showery weather at the same time as it becomes a little colder through the showery phases.
 
NAVGEM closes it's run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with a broad flow of Westerly winds with troughs blowing through in the breeze delivering rain at times in average temperatures.
 
ECM tonight shows much stronger winds from next weekend with strong Westerly winds with rain at times with Low pressure areas passing across to the North. Some clearer and slightly colder more showery interludes are likely at times too with some sunshine but nothing remotely wintry.
 
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight show no overall change in the pattern with the main features likely to be present in 9 and 10 days time according to their ensembles is a strong Azores High, Low pressure near Iceland and a trough slow moving down the North Sea. High pressure is shown still over NE Europe though and no doubt some members promote this in a bigger way but the bias still remains for a West or NW flow most likely over the UK with rain or showers at times in temperatures near to or a little below average.
 
 
The Jet Stream remains very active and will become more so later in the period as the current position of the flow to the South of the UK changes to a more direct passage Eastwards over the UK to Europe as the block to the NE declines.
 
In Summary the pattern remains a very Atlantic driven show with a strengthening of the Jet Stream developing deeper depressions to the North of the UK from next weekend and dragging stronger Westerly winds across the UK with rain at times. However, this becomes much more focused on the North rather than the South with little in the way of disruption caused by any weather events over the coming two weeks as the charts stand tonight.
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The only thing I see is PV stayingvto NW and very little change to overall pattern. I think we may see low heights to NW lift a touch as we enter Feb allowing HP be more dominant. But mid lat HP and not Arctic. Until then more of the same......and longer term? No major flip in my mind. I mentioned other day the HP to our SW is a major cold pain.

BFTP

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hmm....you've misread me there, I didn't infer that snow and cold were around the corner as such, or by the ensemble suite....My point was that there is a large spread at a fairly short time scale and as such this is indicative of that the output is 'up in the air' (pardon the pun) so notHing is written in stone and anything can and probably will happen. The operationals at face value don't look great (or bad, depending on your synoptic 'leanings') but the ensemble spread is large enough to make the operationals almost irrelevant post T96-120 Posted Image

No I know you didn't I didn’t mean to sound like I was pinpointing you, but I think plenty do or at least they pin their hopes on it, despite being a coldie I try to view things dispassionately I don’t try to read into model projections what I want to see as I can’t see the point, Cold and snow even in winter are the exception not the rule in the UK, so viewing model outputs by a what I hope will happen method seems to me to be pretty futile, rather like spending your whole life rejecting what’s right in front of you trying to look for the absolute perfect soul mate and finding yourself still single and a pensioner 65 years down the line.

And right now what’s in front of us is a return to full on zonal, given that the Scandia high is now not going to be of any use to us, that maybe the best thing to force a pattern change, or it may be that the models will return to the mid Atlantic ridge there were showing a couple of days ago, I wouldn’t rule it out completely, although it seems very unlikely to my eyes.

Edited by weather eater
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Quite a spread of solutions on the ECM De Bilt short ensembles, the operational at the top end for the second half of its output:

 

post-1206-0-94626200-1390164183_thumb.pn

 

The ECM postage stamps show good agreement on the overall pattern at day 5 with troughing to the west and high to the east but there are detail differences in terms of how much energy is heading ne versus se:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011912!!/

 

That will impact the later output to an extent, the problem at the moment is the reluctance of the ECM operationals to go with one of those colder solutions, I generally have a 3 strikes and you're out rule here, eventually unless the ECM goes with the colder option the ensembles will start to jump across to support it, we're on two strikes at the moment, tomorrow we don't want to see a third!

Edited by nick sussex
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Another 24 hours I guess until I need to take the Scandi high outside (shotgun in hand) and cast that aside. The next moment of opportunity will be at around day 6-8, the ECM ens show some level of amplification in the Atlantic, we need an inland runner up the East coast of Canada to get the Atlantic ridge north enough to meet the Arctic high. 

Sigh when will we get some luck with the upstream pattern.

I guess I could be wrong about the Scandi high again, it does seem to have a charmed life.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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*pattern* change: Yes it would seem to be upon us, we are now losing the high pressure over scandi as it either sinks south or moves back east, to be replaced by an invigorated jet(again)putting us back into a very mobile W/NW pattern, after that we are looking for the *next* pattern change........

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Whilst as usual there will be uncertainty, I think its looking more and more likely the Atlantic will power up and we will see the Azores high coming into play although I would not rule out a brief flirtation with cold from the East but its not going to bring any snowfall and the reality is, if your looking for any set ups which will deliver the goods, the models look miles off from this happening and nothing has changed in my eyes really. 

 

We may see some polar airmasses from a NW'ly and I'll still stand by thats our best hope for some places recieving some snow but with the air being modified over the Atlantic then it has to be a potant NW'ly to deliver the goods. 

 

Winter is far from over mind but latest trends suggests that January could well end up being snowless for many. 

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Any chance we can start a new thread as this one is getting very long and tedious. Getting a bit bored of the moaners etc

A new MOD thread was always started when an old one reached 40 pages roughly, why did this change? 130 pages for a thread is too long in my opinion. In terms of the models, the ECM looks increasingly flat and just more of what we have seen this winter. The GFS is little better and the UKMO had shifted things more to the east compared to this morning. As long as that PV remains over eastern Greenland and Canada I just cannot see anything changing..... It will always just serve to fire up the jet stream.
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Note I'm not talking cold/snow prospects in my comment. I am utterly ambiguous on all that 'hunt for cold stuff'. I was more struck by the deep cyclonicity and the positioning/broadscale variance from other operational centre DET solutions.

Thank you Ian
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points from the ecm ens - well the continental feed into the e of the uk on friday shows well on the uppers spreads and looking through the postage stamps, this theme has become as likely as the other two clusterings. still looks messy but given that it has gone from being the smallest cluster on the 00z run to the same level as the others on the 12z, i suspect you can work out where the momentum is.  seems to revolve around a more definitive n italian circulation which advects the colder air west.

 

there were a few gefs 12z members in that area and quite a few canadian ones this morning.

 

thereafter the arctic high creates a split across the pole and joins with the east scandi ridging northwest. the systems keep on coming towards us from the west though the spreads say that several tracks are possible. the mean takes them to our east and drops them into eastern europe.  its quite possible that they could drop to our west. infact the spread on uppers reveals a solution as per yesterdays 12z is still showing on a cluster of runs.  given the range of options on the gefs, are you getting the picture here?

 

ultimately, the mean drives the vortex lobe into the n atlantic as per the op.  not sure the mean is going to be too useful over the next fortnight. one of the clusterings is probably right. which bloody one ?????

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Finding a genuine trend to show we are heading away from our predominately westerly influenced weather that we have been enduring all winter has been and continues to be the problem.

A sign here, an upstream signal there but sat there to our northwest, running the show the whole time has been a very powerful polar vortex. Even with a decent block to our ne and strong pacific ridging over the pole, the ops have, on the whole, been underwhelming. Why? The vortex. To that effect The GEFS have (for all their faults) been telling upto now. Putting aside absolute accuracy issues of the gefs members, there have been few, if any, occasions when we have seen wholescale low 850s forecast, even in far fi. This normally does happen in the lead up to an actual cold spell.

However it is far far far from all doom and gloom as behind the scenes as it were, constant, if not massive, pressure has been, is being and will continue to be put on the raging vortex in the guise of minor warnings and waves. I think one trend that could well occur is for the vortex to edge away from Greenland, probably eastwards towards Scandinavia towards the end of the month. With some decent upstream amplification and the mjo looking good, we could see that Azores ridging in behind favourably. That arctic high as well should not be underestimated, it is a bit of a wildcard but if we were to get lucky and throw a double six with that lurking, things could change very rapidly indeed in our favour.

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all i  say even if  you look deep into fantasy world the  only places  which might see snow any  time soon is Scotland, and  the  high  parts  of  north of  england from  about jan 30 the  rest of  us  is more  rain from  the  westhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Six mornings here hills are covered in5cm snow plus but wet here and 1-2c no snow seen falling at 300m here but one evening in mottram saw heavy huge flakes for 20minutes.....laid on car/roof but not road
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The latest NAM increases the amplitude upstream at T84hrs compared to the GFS 12hrs run, it takes the jet further to the se at that time  which might help bring the Scandi high a bit further west. Just a little good news perhaps, of course the GFS 18hrs run might still not follow this but given the timeframes lets hope its on to something.

Edited by nick sussex
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Well it looks like the jet firing up again at end of the week bringing more heavy just what we don't need really. And as gibby has said very little signs of anything cold in next 10 days.

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