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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Model Q&As:

     

    Are tonight's models rubbish for cold next week? : Yes

     

    Are they definitely correct about that? : No, not yet

     

    Could they be underestimating the strength of the block to the North East? : Yes

     

    Is the GFS zonal in low res? : Of course

     

    Will someone dig out the Bolivian model later, which shows a raging Easterly for next Wednesday? : Highly likely

     

    WIll someone, based on this set of 12z models, write off the rest of winter? : Without a doubt

     

     

    Posted Image

    Ha! Funny. Remember that when the happy pills run out, people lose it big time!

    I'm with Tamara et al, whom are not convinced that the models have this situation worked out correctly at all. IMHO we could well be in for some nice surprises over the next couple of weeks. Winter not over yet by a long shot.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    You get the feeling the ECM is on a wind up by dangling the carrot so to speak. Looking at the UKMOand GFS you think that is it games up then out comes the ECM again and backs everything furtherwest again plus the Scandi high looks a lot stronger and better shape at t120-t144 regardless of where the run goes after that.I see even at the end of the run its hinting their may be a second bite of the cherry. Of course the ECM is a NWP model the same as the rest and may have picked up on something the other modelshaven't due to its higher resolution. Then again the adjustments west could be gone on the next run.

    all current models CROSS will struggle with thermodynamics. Until such computer is inventory its 90% guess 10% skill.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    And there you have it, The Shows over for now for the holy grail in cold, or perhaps the likes of! But and there is a But, its just as likely the models will flip again in another day or twos time. Ive seen this many time before , where the models progg a very cold spell ,drop the idea for some days and then bring it back on!!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Ive not posted any charts because I don't want you good coldies out there to get even more depressed!Posted Image  Be Patient ,your time will comePosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Was the strat not forecasted to undergo a warning around now (2 weeks ago) seems those forecasts are as fickle as the others!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Maybe, just maybe we need Arnie on the case.post-15503-0-33938000-1389383016_thumb.pBut seriously, the models are all over the place at +120h, all of them show something different at that time frame. It could still swing the other way. 

    Edited by PerfectStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

    NW/WNW/N flow towards end of run with low heights to north. Average temps in anomalies. But given high Shannon Entropy even by end next week, very low confidence second half Jan. MOGREPS call to spike any cold chance next week appears to have been well-founded... it was the only model keen on mobile, less cold outcome.

    The most important post of this evening in my book, basically the outlook is not great for cold but the cards are in flux and its a case of waiting to see what side is facing up once they fall.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The most important post of this evening in my book, basically the outlook is not great for cold but the cards are in flux and its a case of waiting to see what side is facing up once they fall.

    basically yes .but more importantly is your OWN interpretation of what's in front of you!.
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Maybe, just maybe we need Arnie on the case.

    Posted Imagelol2.png

    But seriously, the models are all over the place at +120h, all of them show something different at that time frame. It could still swing the other way.

    love this.:-)
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    Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

    Sorry but saying it again .

    If Greenland heights don't exist ,it's very difficult to bring cold eastwards .

    Shortwaves appear closer to the time and those are hurdles models don't detect to nearer off the time .

    Next week not just going be not as cold here ,central Europe also missing a eastward push .

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Knife edge situation still. The models have not got a clue. However, there is still ample time left, the rest of January and the whole of February, which is no stranger to some severe snowstorms and ice days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I've become a bit obsessed with the ECM ensemble mean this week (perhaps because it's been the only hope for cold since yesterday!) - the following link has a really useful comparison of the ENS means over the past few days: 

     

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=all&VAR=pslv&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

     

    The charts in the link are for Sunday 00Z (so T48). You'd wouldn't think they could change that much between T120 and T48! At the start of this week, Norway were expecting westerlies for Sunday - now they're expecting easterlies!

     

    A little reminder, which I shouldn't really need, of how models struggle with pattern changes even inside T120. Perhaps I have been guilty of expecting too much consistency from T120/T144/T168 charts this week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    look at these at just t96 the differences are HUGE.....

    four models same timeframe from the 12z

    at t72 they all look like for like ,(just about)  just 12 hours later not one model agrees with the other.

    loads to play for yetPosted Image as they all seem to struggle with that low in the atlantic and shape, big variences in the hlb north, position and strength...then there are variences with the flow,intensity of jet stream and track along with amplification going on over the states... jees what a jumble.

     

    post-18134-0-46057200-1389383741_thumb.ppost-18134-0-34632700-1389383797_thumb.gpost-18134-0-39132000-1389383891_thumb.ppost-18134-0-28933300-1389383907_thumb.g

     

     

    the big fat question is are which is most likely ? 

     

    no definitve , looking through the frames at just 96hrs  it is impossible to say which one is!!!...Shannon entropy in full effect... brilliant model viewing at the moment though , turmoil is a word to describe it... very interesting twists and turns to come yet ...!!

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Sorry but saying it again .If Greenland heights don't exist ,it's very difficult to bring cold eastwards .Shortwaves appear closer to the time and those are hurdles models don't detect to nearer off the time .Next week not just going be not as cold here ,central Europe also missing a eastward push .

    no.thats not the case.heights north/ north east are favourite. Check 1947 archive meteocial .but given lots of other factors play part. Greenland heights are favour for sustained cold .
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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    Was the strat not forecasted to undergo a warning around now (2 weeks ago) seems those forecasts are as fickle as the others!

    Sore point. Indeed it was Jan 1st strat charts showed a very strong warming at the 10mb level and

    split vortexes down through all levels. We would almost certainly have been looking at different

    synoptic charts to the ones on view now with a complete turn around of fortunes. Unfortunately this

    was to be a big red herring.

    Below is the 10mb temperature chart I saved from the 1st of Jan.

    post-10506-0-82795500-1389385077_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    look at these at just t96 the differences are HUGE.....

    four models same timeframe from the 12z

    at t72 they all look like for like ,(just about) just 12 hours later not one model agrees with the other.

    loads to play for yetPosted Image as they all seem to struggle with that low in the atlantic and shape, big variences in the hlb north, position and strength...then there are variences with the flow,intensity of jet stream and track along with amplification going on over the states... jees what a jumble.

    Posted Imagegemnh-0-96.pngPosted ImageECH1-96.gifPosted Imagegfsnh-0-96.pngPosted ImageUN96-21.gif

    the big fat question is are which is most likely ?

    no definitve , looking through the frames at just 96hrs it is impossible to say which one is!!!...Shannon entropy in full effect... brilliant model viewing at the moment though , turmoil is a word to describe it... very interesting twists and turns to come yet ...!!

    Yes there might be differences at 96 but sadly not one run went on to develope a decent cold spell. So you could argue that dispite these variations at 96 the overriding signals for no decent cold are strong. Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    In all seriousness though, I think we could see some surprise model outputs this weekend. The ECM may be onto something by keeping the block hanging around, and while it's there, we could still find a way to cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    no.thats not the case.heights north/ north east are favourite. Check 1947 archive meteocial .but given lots of other factors play part. Greenland heights are favour for sustained cold .

    thars not at all pulling the blinkers over your eyes. NE block are mostly as substantial. Once in place. And thats the difficulty, coming to fruition in such circumstances.
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I think the kind of set up at the moment is very susceptible to the flapping of a butterfly's wings with a slightly vigorous flap enough to bring about a flip!The switch to a cold outlook was one such flip. The flip to a considerable downgrade of that outlook was another.the last few runs have shown differences run on run but not so much to completely change the outlook. But I still think we are close to a tipping point outlook where slight changes can push us down a different slope.  it would not surprise me at all if the butterfly has been flapping its wings sufficiently to tip us once more over to the wintry outlook  and we see a flip from the good old 18z from GFS pub run.So stand by your trawlers laden with sardines that the seagulls are following :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Fog, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)

    Thought this was interesting as it's the 60th anniversary of BBC weather: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25669649 

    Gives a little insight into the BBC's approach to the models at the end of the video and then right at the very end, a slight slip of the tongue by Darren Bett? or just nothing at all... I'll let you decide Posted Image 

     

    Either way, the warming up in the stratosphere showing up nicely on the GFS 12Z. 

     

    Posted Image

     

    Some interesting wave 1 activity popping up on the models over the coming fortnight.

     

    Let's just hope this one isn't a red herring too... Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 34m/112ft ASL

    Yes there might be differences at 96 but sadly not one run went on to develope a decent cold spell. So you could argue that dispite these variations at 96 the overriding signals for no decent cold are strong.

    I agree with you there any day... the thing is though  no output past t72/96  can be construed as reliable.....nothing at all is on the table yet despite what the trend is showing...plenty of time for upgrades... the models are just running through a variety of possible solutions ( toying with a very huge complex equation)  within all their variety of bias`s , hence , the chops and changes to keep us all glued , interested and plenty to discuss .

    Edited by bryan629
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    Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
    Good evening. Here is this evening's report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 10th 2014 lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
     
    All models show a weakening cold front crossing the UK with patchy rain continuing to push East across remaining Southern and Eastern areas followed by clearing skies and colder but light NW winds head of a stronger ridge of High pressure than we have seen for quite some time. This brings a dry weekend for many with a frost on Saturday night. However, the pattern remains fluid and further Low pressure troughs move in from the West later on Sunday and extends East to Eastern areas too by Monday with rain followed by showers for many. On Tuesday further Low pressure out to the West sends frontal troughs East again over the South and West in particular with other areas too seeing rain at times.
     
    GFS shows the midweek period with deep Low pressure slow moving across the UK with rain and showers encircling the UK some of it heavy and prolonged in very average temperatures for mid January. Later in the run the Azores High becomes a large feature down to the SW with the Jet Stream rounding the Northern flank of the High across the UK and down over Southern Europe. With time the weather would become less wet but mild for all with Westerly winds bringing a lot of cloud across the UK from the Atlantic with any rain from troughs restricted to Northernmost parts.
     
    The GFS Ensembles have shelved the cold spell now with virtually all members maintaining generally changeable conditions with rain at times in temperatures close to average over all areas in brisk winds at times.
     
    UKMO tonight shows Thursday afternoon's chart with Low pressure positioned near NW Britain with a cyclonic South or SW flow over the UK with rain at times, some heavy being experienced by most if not all areas with temperatures close to average.
     
    GEM keeps Low pressure close to Southern Britain through the middle and end of next week with a continuing risk of heavy rain and showers almost anywhere but more likely in the South as temperatures hold up to average reasonably well. By the end of the run Low pressure remains in control close to the NW with unstable West or NW winds quite strong at times and temperatures close to average though perhaps rather colder later under the NW flow.
     
    NAVGEM shows Low pressure receding away North later leaving a mild and fresh Atlantic Westerly flow across the UK with some rain at times still chiefly in the North and West.
     
    ECM today looks quite different in it's later stages to this morning's run with Low pressure slipping away South after giving us a wet and unsettled week next week only to be replaced by another deep Low sliding East past Northern Scotland towards the end of the run and sending an interval of colder NNW winds and wintry showers down over the UK by the end of next weekend.
     
    The ECM 9 and 10 day Mean Chart suggests a biased suggestion of a trough near the UK with unsettled weather likely in association with it the most likely weather type through this period. A strong Azores High is once more a significant feature with any cold weather nowhere to be seen at this juncture.
     
     
    The Jet Stream remains in a confused and indeterminate mode over the coming few days before it settles over Southern Europe for a time next week. Later on it is shown to reset North to the North of the UK and towards Northern Europe following a more active Azores Anticyclone through Week 2.
     
    In Summary tonight the dying embers of the projected cold weather has been completely removed tonight with a cocktail of models that all show different synoptics within the same changeable pattern with more unwanted rain at times for all with some short and drier interludes at times too with temperatures never far from average.
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    Sore point. Indeed it was Jan 1st strat charts showed a very strong warming at the 10mb level and

    split vortexes down through all levels. We would almost certainly have been looking at different

    synoptic charts to the ones on view now with a complete turn around of fortunes. Unfortunately this

    was to be a big red herring.

    Below is the 10mb temperature chart I saved from the 1st of Jan.

    Posted Image10mb 384 01.01.14 w.gif

    My knowledge of strat thread is very "threadbare" (pardon the poor pun) so to speak - but I thought that the charts are a lot more stable and accurate higher up in the atmosphere, and I seem to recall other warming events in other years being predicted at 300+ hours and working their way down to T0 quite often. It just seems that every time there is a glimmer of hope this year, the models find a newer way to to smash each and every cold chance to smithereens, and then dance on the grave for good measure!
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