Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Purga]

Before everyone starts polishing their sledges the ENS still look marginal for anything wintry in most of lowland Britain away from northern uplands

 

 

[bluearmy]

The point being that the longer the block holds, the better the chance for a solution which delivers something of note. yes, the renewed blast if northern arm could fly ne and sink it with a whimper but on the flip side, that could split and undercut with the continent by that time, coder than now.

Even a stand off is ok as it will create a strong southerly into the arctic and consequential wave 2 activity which could well be just at the right time to split a weakening strat vortex. the chances that this winter will deliver weeks of snow and ice are pretty well non existant. a two week cold period with snow is easily achievable. two winters ago, we were on the edge of the brutal european cold in feb. First two weeks returning a sub zero cet. no reason why we couldnt repeat that and even go a bit further re snowfall.

Purga- i doubt the gefs will help. If they catch on to a better pattern for us, likely to be quite sudden.

Edited January 16, 2014 by bluearmy

[Summer Sun]

Latest 8 day temperature anomaly from GFS shows most of England and Wales staying at or slightly above average, the exceptions are a small part of northern wales and possibly the far north of England. All of northern Ireland remains below average along with the bulk of mainland Scotland the main exception is the east and NE along with parts of SW Scotland

 

 

Across the pond parts of the US are entering another freeze

 

[hammy]

Latest 8 day temperature anomaly from GFS shows most of England and Wales staying at or slightly above average, the exceptions are a small part of northern wales and possibly the far north of England. All of northern Ireland remains below average along with the bulk of mainland Scotland the main exception is the east and NE along with parts of SW Scotland

 

 

Across the pond parts of the US are entering another freeze

 

 

I am very much the amateur and still learning, but one positive sure would be from this chart would be that Europe is getting colder?  so if an easterly flow did develop we could tap into that cold that is gradually building up?

 

as i said i am still learning and that is just an observation 

[nick sussex]

The ECM postage stamps show a variety of solutions at T120hrs, some much better than the operational run and also very underwhelming.

 

We need the ECM to be wrong at that timeframe and be nice and pick one of those more favourable outcomes for its output tonight!

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011600!!/

[TEITS]

Looks like the models has made those, and I include myself, look right fools saying no chance of an E,ly and a return to mild W,lys is a certainty.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

 

I should not be surprised though because after years of following the models its pretty obvious the models have a flaw in the programming when low pressure comes up against blocking to our NE. Nearly every time the models want to blast the block away to the E allowing this return to a W,ly pattern.

 

What is clearly happening is we are seeing the usual shift W of the pattern by the models and today/tomorrow we should keep an eye on this continuing especially around the +72 to +120 period. I still doubt a typical deep cold E,ly is likely simply because the main cold pool is so far away. However we could yet see a marginal snow event come from this.

 

 

Having said I got it wrong I did say this yesterday.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/page-43

[Troubleatmill]

I am very much the amateur and still learning, but one positive sure would be from this chart would be that Europe is getting colder?  so if an easterly flow did develop we could tap into that cold that is gradually building up?

 

as i said i am still learning and that is just an observation 

 

Cant be anything but a positive Hammy like you say mate

[nick sussex]

Interestingly the ECM mean looks better over the Arctic than the operational run, a lobe of high pressure seems to work its way perilously close to the Svalbard region!

 

The operational run also spills alot more energy east towards Europe, the suggestion from the mean is that the PV might be pulling nw again at T240hrs, hopefully this is its last hurrah and it will go and bug some other area,!

Edited January 16, 2014 by nick sussex

[winterof79]

Before everyone starts polishing their sledges the ENS still look marginal for anything wintry in most of lowland Britain away from northern uplands

 

 

The forgotten land "middle Earth" has potential too

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Decent clusters around -5 from the 21st.We are aware that most of Britain is lowland and requires better conditions.The point being raised today is that the output is trending colder.No one has to my knowledge even mentioned the key to the shed. let alone the sledges

[WhiteFox]

The point being that the longer the block holds, the better the chance for a solution which delivers something of note. yes, the renewed blast if northern arm could fly ne and sink it with a whimper but on the flip side, that could split and undercut with the continent by that time, coder than now. 

Whilst the block holds there is always a chance of cold reaching the UK. However, we see a period just about every winter in January or February where there is blocking over Europe which delivers cold tantalisingly close to the UK but never actually reaches us. Whilst we have a PV of any strength in the current position then we are always relying on perfect timing of trough disruption and jetstream angles. It does happen, but the majority of the time it does not and the colder air stays to the East. FOr as long as I've been viewing the charts there has been a period where the Siberian high ridges west but just cannot reach us. Granted it's a Scandinavian high at the moment, but the principle remains the same: with a strong Polar Vortex in situ we need a healthy dose of luck wrt timing to achieve cold...

[snowbob]

Lots of positives this morning

Which is a far cry from most recent mornings

The 120 fax last night was actually a bit better than the ukmo 12z regarding the low moving se so with that in mind plenty of time to upgrade cold potential IMO

Sorry can't post it on phone.

With regards to your post yesterday TEITS think that was a very good call considering the outputs this morning,

Edited January 16, 2014 by snowbob

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Here is the first of my twice daily reports on the current state of the outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 16th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show the UK under the influence of a large depression to the west of the UK with a showery SSW flow across the UK, not very strong but providing the catalyst for a lot of heavy showers across Southern and Western Britain with far fewer elsewhere. This pattern remains in place for the next 24-36 hours with the showers if anything becoming more frequent and widespread as Low pressure draws into UK air space. On Saturday a new Low will push rain North across the UK and this could prove quite persistent and heavy in places before clearing to showers on Sunday. By Monday pressure will have slackened across the UK and while still quite Low with light winds the day could well end up dry for many and rather chilly with some frost and freezing fog patches possible in places. By Tuesday the next Low pressure will be knocking on the door of western Britain with strengthening winds and rain by Tuesday.

 

GFS shows this Low moving ESE over the North sea and Europe turning winds towards the North for a time soon after midweek with a drier period developing with night frosts next weekend. this doesn't last long though before a rinse and repeat pattern of what's gone before develops with some wintry showers on the Western flank of the exiting Low in generally cold conditions at the end of the run before winds swing Easterly at the end of the run giving some sleet or snow over Southern and Eastern Britain.

 

The GFS Ensembles show the pattern that we currently have seen of late generally maintained with the added conditions of somewhat colder conditions at times as Low pressure cross ESE down the north Sea giving the UK something of a swipe at colder NW winds on the rear f departing depressions. The operationals wintry end to it's run was not well supported with most members keeping a much more moderate reduction in overall temperatures values and with the incidence of rain still all too frequent.

 

UKMO this morning closes it's morning run next Wednesday with a shallow Low pressure near SW England moving SE. An area of rain will be lying across the UK in association with this and this could well result in some snowfall in the North and East as colder air is drawn in from Europe undercutting the feature.

 

GEM shows Low pressure slipping down over the UK later next week as a much deeper feature than UKMO and as a result bringing yet another spell of wind and rain followed by showers across all districts with little respite beyond a window of drier weather shown on Day 10.

 

NAVGEM is broadly similar in format to GEM with a belt of Low pressure down the North Sea at the end of the run with a chilly and showery NW feed across the UK.

 

ECM follows the general trend of this new Low pressure feeding SE later next week with rain and showers in tow for all before it clears away to the SE allowing a temporary cold incursion of air on a ridge of High pressure to make it's presence felt later with frost and fog patches before further Atlantic fronts move in again from the NW by Day 10.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts this morning reveal the status-quo persists from earlier versions of these charts in that the favoured option between members of it's ensemble group show a trough down across the North sea with the UK lying in a West or NW flow between Low pressure to the NW and High over the Azores. One can deduce from this that the current changeable pattern persists over the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream forecast this morning shows the flow largely maintaining it's current pattern for the reliable future with longer term indications suggesting no meaningful change other than a short migration NE of the flow further across Northern Britain for a time later next week before resetting back further South later.

 

In Summary this morning we have little overall change in the pattern of unsettled weather under a UK trough. With cold air to the NE we have to be mindful of what could happen if the synoptic pattern falls our way and UKMO shows some degree of that this morning giving an interesting chart for next Wednesday which with a few tweaks could be a good chart for coldies. however, the general consensus remains that the underlying feeling remains for the cold to stay the other side of the North Sea while we continue to suffer from troughs of Low pressure running in off the Atlantic with rain and showers and occasional hill snow largely in the North at times with short transitory colder interludes with frost.

[tight isobar]

Ecm is upto what was feasibly in front of all imo.getting a grip firmly on synoptics, personaly after both witnessing and perseving recent synoptics with the initial easterl being progged, and appearing at the drop a a hat then the mods chucking it , then non decipher with windowed euro developments, im not ar all surprised and was expecting this to a large degree. And as for again the form horse maybe sailing to the finish line.while some watch and wish ed they would have gone for a win. ?.rather than an each way bet.

.this was never a done deal imo from the off.as TEITS suggests some fell firm in believe of 100% zonal takeover.when it comes east north east blocks its most likely 99% model coverage will struggle. Anyway some reason to be optimistic once more , even for the nervous amongst us!

[Troubleatmill]

Looks like the models has made those, and I include myself, look right fools saying no chance of an E,ly and a return to mild W,lys is a certainty.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

 

I should not be surprised though because after years of following the models its pretty obvious the models have a flaw in the programming when low pressure comes up against blocking to our NE. Nearly every time the models want to blast the block away to the E allowing this return to a W,ly pattern.

 

What is clearly happening is we are seeing the usual shift W of the pattern by the models and today/tomorrow we should keep an eye on this continuing especially around the +72 to +120 period. I still doubt a typical deep cold E,ly is likely simply because the main cold pool is so far away. However we could yet see a marginal snow event come from this.

 

 

Having said I got it wrong I did say this yesterday.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/page-43

 

 Worth keeping an eye on that one Dave, Northest England could get a fair amout off that chart for the ECM

Edited January 16, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Chris K]

Before everyone starts polishing their sledges the ENS still look marginal for anything wintry in most of lowland Britain away from northern uplands

 

 

 

I don't think anyone are 'polishing their sledges', especially after the frustrating (although still interesting) model watching these past couple of weeks. However, considering some were saying (including myself) that a return to a more zonal spell looked most likely, thing aren't looking quite that simple (as usual!) and actually looking a bit more positive this morning. Just have to wait and see if it carries on as the time gets ever closer!

 

Yes we aren't going to get a widespread, prolonged, snowy spell....but some people could get a few surprises if these improvements continue.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well its more finely balanced than i thought!

Having said that,we are still going to need further shifts west in the pattern to get any real benefit from the block to the North East.

Im still favouring a westerly regime down the line but events a little closer may well spring a suprise or two for upland parts of Nortern England/Scotland.

To sum up my feeling im still downbeat about the outlook but hopeful that we might see further adjustments west,the meto update will be more revealing....

[SMU]

Morning All-

 

Sounding like arkwright out of open all hours- its been a funny old week.....

 

Rubbish charts at 72-96, Something exciting but borderline at 120-168 & then a swift return of the atlantic post that- seemingly the outputs bar a few have been like that for 7 days with the UK chasing that elusive undercut.

 

What has been consistent though is the cold has never really made it into the uk, with at best the westerly push stopping in its tracks over the North sea.

 

Well, subtle changes today-  remember each day usually sees a new trend-

 

The Models, more particular the UKMO begin to see some snow develop in an undercut scenario at day 4, I commented on this last night & the signal is there again today-

Its manifesting firstly in the extreme NE, but spreads SE to central + Northern areas with time.- At this is stage this risk is still low, however maybe a risk up to 50% into the NE is the first landmark we have overcome.

 

Here is the 72 + 96 Chart-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011600/UN72-21.GIF?16-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011600/UN96-21.GIF?16-06

 

& the 850 Charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011600/UN96-7.GIF?16-06

 

Its very borderline, thicknesses probably 1300 DAM - but potential at least-  These lowering further still into the 120 timeframe.

After that the cold is still building over to the East & another shallow low traverses the UK which represents the risk of some wintry weather further South & west.

 

The UKMO & ECM are good today but just need a nudge still in the right direction- but we are heading the right way-

S

Edited January 16, 2014 by Steve Murr

[johnholmes]

like that first line Steve-it has indeed

 

It is a fascinating situation and as always with cold blocks, both human and models always struggle to get the balance correctly.

I am again going to adopt my fence sitting, at least for the 6-15 day period for a day or so again. Over the past 48 hours the anomaly charts are fairly consistent in that time and with one another. The problem is I am unsure just what they are trying to do!

NOAA and EC-GFS are below and I will leave it for you to have a go at deciphering their next move?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I'll have another look at the outputs over the last few days later today to see if it looks any more obvious

[The PIT]

And the Atlantic under the the trainer never wrong ECM delivers what could be a knock out blow right at the end of the round. Will Scandi came back or will it throw in the towel.

Just looking at FI land for next week and we're going to need some evaporate cooling to get some snow away from the high ground. At the moment it looks like may actually feel a little like winter next week. However so far this winter cold/cool spells by the time they have got to reliable time frame have been a lot higher and normally have been average to above average.

[Yarmy]

There's no way this will happen, but it's interesting to me because it's the first time I've seen any Greenland heights (even in FI) this winter.

 

 

In the sensible timeframe, the Scandi block is proving more robust than previously modelled, but the net result is still that we end up in a no-man's land col. Things are going to get more interesting, I think.

[492]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

The upper high over northern Scandinavia has intensified slightly over night and the surface high is elongating NNE - SSW. Dewpoints are falling over parts of Northern Europe and Poland has now got a renewed snow cover. The Low to the west is elongating, gradually filling and slipping SSE. All in all a good start to the day along with the westerly correction on UKMO output at around T+84.

[Summer Sun]

Here is 3 8 day temperature anomlay charts from GFS I saved these 3 on the 14th, 15th and this mornings 00z

 

14th 12z

 

 

15th 00z

 

 

This mornings 00z

 

Edited January 16, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Purga]

Whilst the block holds there is always a chance of cold reaching the UK. However, we see a period just about every winter in January or February where there is blocking over Europe which delivers cold tantalisingly close to the UK but never actually reaches us. Whilst we have a PV of any strength in the current position then we are always relying on perfect timing of trough disruption and jetstream angles. It does happen, but the majority of the time it does not and the colder air stays to the East. FOr as long as I've been viewing the charts there has been a period where the Siberian high ridges west but just cannot reach us. Granted it's a Scandinavian high at the moment, but the principle remains the same: with a strong Polar Vortex in situ we need a healthy dose of luck wrt timing to achieve cold...

Agree this! that is why I'm keeping my powder dry and not getting suckered into too much false optimism. METO reckon there is less than 10% chance of a cold shot from the east so whilst there is a vague chance the odds are well against it.

[mcweather]

Depending on your outlook the current modelling is either mind numbingly boring or incredibly fascinating, perhaps due to having had to learn patience through the mainly atrocious winters of the 1990's, I now fall into the latter category.

 

To my mind the most important feature of the the models at the moment is that none of them, ( even the normally ultra progressive GFS) want to remove the the block to our east. Sure they play about with the exact positioning but in the end they all keep it there and as others have pointed out any progged returns to zonality have been continually put back.

 

Having done an immense amount of model watching over the years, this suggests to me that longer term it is the block which will have more influence on our weather.  It is a case at the moment of very very slowly slowly catchey monkey, but I do think at some point we will see a quite sudden movement in the model output towards outcomes favouring the block to our east. The other option in which the block takes control would be some kind of retrogression towards Greenland.

Edited January 16, 2014 by mcweather

[TEITS]

Agree this! that is why I'm keeping my powder dry and not getting suckered into too much false optimism. METO reckon there is less than 10% chance of a cold shot from the east so whilst there is a vague chance the odds are well against it.

Don't forget the 10% chance that the Met O mention is based on previous days outputs. At the moment 24hrs is a very long time and this is especially true with this current pattern.

 

Personally the chance of marginal snow fall via a relatively cool E,ly flow has increased somewhat this morning. I still believe the last week of Jan/ 1st week of Feb is when winter will properly arrive from the E.