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Paul

Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

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The Cold uppers are coming from that chart , and having just seen the rest of the run they do come , -10's by +216 Uk wide . 

To be honest the 168h chart looked poor regarding 850hpa and i thought they would never make it, But like you said "-10's by +216 Uk wide"

But let's not get carried away, ....They haven't yet! .....Will be interesting to see what the GFS comes up with laterPosted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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ECM,please dont lead us up the garden path again.

Its such a lovely run with undercutting galore,im going to be sick in the morning if it does a huge backtrack,i really am.

Can it be right,thats the question!

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Well well well, Just when I thought it was safe to come out from behind the sofa, I find myself yet again looking through my fingers at the screen as another ECM easterly with some half decent uppers later on materialises before my eyes.

 

Can it be trusted? Can any model be trusted in these circumstances?

 

One thing that seems clear from the to and fro modelling over the last few days is that the various outputs have been struggling to get a handle on what would appear to have been (and suggested by Ian F) a very finely balanced situation.

 

Phil NW made avery valid point earlier in that the last 24 hours modelling from the ECM has seen an increasing reluctance to sink the block so in a way tonights 12z ECM does have some continuity and consistency of output to it.

 

However I think I would like to see a couple more runs confirming tonights output or something very close to it before I take it as a real goer.

 

Hopefully the tide is turning.

Edited by mcweather
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As I mentioned earlier over weekend: with cold reservoir to NE and 15% MOGREPS offering colder easterly at surface into trend period, it remains the minority likely outcome but can't be discounted.

As the phrase goes: The models are never wrong. Only the weather is.

In other words, even the 12z ECM DET cannot be wholly discounted and not least at this tentative range.

Yep, Quite right! Most people on here, know that this synoptic situation, is fraught with avid frustration ! There does however  as you say, at least some ECM output to resemble something Wintry for the Uk.....Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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I should add those NCEP discussions were done before the ECM and UKMO 12hrs outputs, they used the ECM/UKMO 00hrs outputs upstream so tonights ECM indeed really just follows their overall broader pattern discussion.

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As I mentioned earlier over weekend: with cold reservoir to NE and 15% MOGREPS offering colder easterly at surface into trend period, it remains the minority likely outcome but can't be discounted.As the phrase goes: The models are never wrong. Only the weather is.In other words, even the 12z ECM DET cannot be wholly discounted and not least at this tentative range.

So Mogreps has remained consistent in still being only 15% for the last 3 days haha, Have any runs upped this a little to something like 25% ?  

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I should add those NCEP discussions were done before the ECM and UKMO 12hrs outputs, they used the ECM/UKMO 00hrs outputs upstream so tonights ECM indeed really just follows their overall broader pattern discussion.

 

What is quite interesting is that JMA came up with the same solution as ECM except it was fast and flat upstream so it may be that the ECM solution isn't quite as improbable as some imagine even if it is still a bit of an underdog. 

If GEM, GFS or UKMO come on board tomorrow and split energy in a similar way then we may well be onto something and if the upstream pattern is going to be much more amplified than recent output has suggested then we can expect more ECM type Easterlies to be modelled. 

Phew, only 2 "ifs" in that last sentence, must be a certainty!

It would be fun if the pub run went for it though, lots of blurry eyes peering into monitors tomorrow morning. Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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When we get to +48 I'll believe it until then I sense another huge disappointment from the ECM again, for me the GFS will be nearer the mark as it's been throughout this winter.

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I know I really shouldn't say this because il give myself a stroke at the age of 30 lol . . . But that chart there you feel if the ECM carried on , you would get the vortex drop down the eastern edge of the high , bringing brutally cold uppers with it , once that low drops into Eastern Europe/Russia , you would see very very cold uppers (talking -20 850's!!!) move along the bottom of the high pressure , with ? You've guessed it . . . Our name on it !!

Ok just for fun Iv attached the northern hemisphere charts for 192 and 240hrs , post-9095-0-51136300-1389642672_thumb.jppost-9095-0-76455800-1389642761_thumb.jpand it's quite easy to see the vortex and it's deep cold moving south , associated with it obviously is the low pressure that gets ejected off the main vortex southwards .post-9095-0-57446200-1389642920_thumb.jppost-9095-0-59917100-1389642501_thumb.jpI'm not suggesting for one minute this is how it will go , but it's very easy to see what CAN happen given the right Synoptics , we will know a bit more once the ens come out :)Edit : sorry i messed up the first post dam iPad !!

post-9095-0-41763900-1389643066_thumb.jp

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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Reading Tamara's post was scary as I'd just been thinking exactly the same thing. Ie ECM shows the very top end of what's achievable at present. Ironically as Severe Siberian commented it would likely evolve into something quite hard hitting further down the line.

I can see that we could get some lovely looking Synoptics quite easily, the problem is that there is just so much warmth around Europe. One thing I suppose that is in our favour is that its mid jan and not mid feb and the way the uppers cool quickly later in the ECM run reflects that.

Love it to be correct, but in truth I expect it will be gone by the morning.

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For all those bashing ECM tonight and making out that GFS is the dogs have you got any stats to back this claim up?

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When we get to +48 I'll believe it until then I sense another huge disappointment from the ECM again, for me the GFS will be nearer the mark as it's been throughout this winter.

 

The GFS will always be nearer the mark in zonal dross conditions because that is its default setting. The real test of a model  in our part of the world is how it handles a situation that isn't westerly based,

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SOME VERY GOOD NEWS FROM NCEP!

 

Well I have some good news from upstream and this is perhaps even better than tonights ECM output because it gives us a broader picture of what solutions we can put faith in, of course if NCEP are right!

 

LATER UPSTREAM...NOAM FLOW AMPLIFCATION HEADING INTO AND THROUGH

NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS WELL SUPPORTED AS A STEADY FLOW OF LIFTING

ERN/NERN PACIFIC LOWS ACTS TO BUILD A DOWNSTREAM WRN NOAM RIDGE

ALOFT.  THIS SEEMS TO FAVOR NOAM SOLUTIONS INCREASINGLY ON THE

MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT WITH A WARMING MEAN WRN NOAM

RIDGE AND COOLING ERN NOAM TROUGH COUPLET.

 

And this:

 

THIS WPC

SOLUTION LEADS TO A MAIN WEATHER FOCUS/LIMITED PCPN POTENTIAL AS

PER SEWD DIGGING IMPULSES INTO AN EMERGING ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH POSITION..

 

That's important because as these shortwaves dig se into the trough this will help to keep it further to the nw.

 

The full discussion is here:

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

 

They aslo mention that they think the GFS is too fast aswell as its GEFS, they think the ECM might be a bit too slow and were happy to go with the ECM/UKMO blend for upstream, thats fine especially as the Euros have cemented the slower trend.

 

Some on twitter excited about the below image. Just wondered Nick if your NCEP post relates to this in anyway. If im wrong I apologise

 

NOAA height anom also going for easterly /SEasterly

Posted Image

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If the ECM was to verify look how cold it gets in Canada and parts of the US!!.Boy they are getting clobbered this winter,lucky buggers!!

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Some on twitter excited about the below image. Just wondered Nick if your NCEP post relates to this in anyway. If im wrong I apologise

 

NOAA height anom also going for easterly /SEasterly

Posted Image

Intrigued too. Have no idea how to read that but at least know where the UK is!

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Some lovely output, not unexpected, but I was reading this last week when things looked bright. From TWS (6th Jan 2013)

"The GFS is all over the place at the moment, so I don't think too much should be read into it at this stage, but I retain a view that snow lovers should not get too excited, particularly as far as snowy easterlies or north-easterlies are concerned, unless they appear inside T+72."

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75464-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-12z-060113/page-6#entry2466592

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This period reminds me of late Jan early Feb 2009.

WIth heights to our north east as Blue Army alluded to earlier and  low heights moving in and eventually filling.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archivesnh-2009-1-31-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archivesnh-2009-2-1-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archivesnh-2009-2-4-0-0.png

 

Lots of snow up here from that development.Snow streamers off the irish sea alsorts in that cold snap.

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For all those bashing ECM tonight and making out that GFS is the dogs have you got any stats to back this claim up?

The latest stats show a drop of all models GFS and UKMO dropping the most while ECM comes top of the group however even that's been out performed by the cmc what ever that is. Ahhh it's the Canadian one.

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Some on twitter excited about the below image. Just wondered Nick if your NCEP post relates to this in anyway. If im wrong I apologise

 

NOAA height anom also going for easterly /SEasterly

Posted Image

We're still waiting for the updated one which will be out shortly, but the key thing about those NCEP discussions is that their suggested pattern for the USA does support what the ECM does in its operational run over there.

 

If you actually follow the ECM operational from the NH perspective you'll see the amplified west coast ridge and the eastern USA troughing with shortwaves dropping se into it.

 

So they expect the dig of the jet to take those in that direction, this has the effect of they hit the troughing and the troughing then gets pulled a bit to the nw, Of course even though NCEP agree with the upstream ECM operational run we still have to see things fall into place over Europe but at least theres a chance for that given the pattern over in the USA.

Edited by nick sussex
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Tonight's GEM though not as good as the ECMWF has potentially another route to cold after day 10.  The day 10 chart is not a million miles away from the day 10 0z ECM ens mean chart.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by mulzy

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The latest stats show a drop of all models GFS and UKMO dropping the most while ECM comes top of the group however even that's been out performed by the cmc what ever that is. Ahhh it's the Canadian one.

CMC is something to do with the GEM Ensembles I heard. 

 

be interesting later to see if this set from the 00z improves a little especially on 850's ..

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/graphe_ens3.php?x=&y=&run=0&lat=52.5910931174089&lon=-1.5094339622641506

Edited by snowmadchrisuk

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