Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[bluearmy]

afraid this is not plausible at day 8. to our east and northeast - i can buy that but to our nw, nope, heights just too high. as much as the 00z op looked wrong yesterday morning, so this does also. great run, but too much difference from the previous suite to currently be taken seriously.

[yorkieblade]

Don't be drawn in ......Garden & Path spring to mind .... You could'nt make this up !

[scottishandy]

 

Is that a retrogressing high with some "energy" heading under to the SE?

[mulzy]

I disagree, UKMO at 144

ECM at 144

Not massively different

 

 

Yep - they are similar especially (as others have stated) with regards the upstream low coming off the eastern seaboard. GFS is much faster.

[Stuie]

Yet again the whole of Europe could be under high pressure. Merging the Russian high with the Scandi high could take some shifting?

[Gaz1985]

Might as well play along with the run for a while longer. The t192 chart is a beaut pity that

a chart such as that can only offer us 850's of -4cto -5c in the third week of January.

 

Dew points off the continent are lower so uppers are not as much an issue if you want snow from the east. It can snow with -4 uppers off a continental feed.

[nick sussex]

You can see a problem even with the better synoptics is that the cold hasn't got into most of Europe so that se flow although cold at the surface isn't going to deliver colder uppers at this stage before more energy heads se.

 

An easy way of judging where the cold is being held given the set up is the point at which you see the change in the isobars near the red line , over southern Denmark, then  further north with the black line is where the deep cold is.

 

 

So if the ECM corrects sw with the pattern then this will bring the deeper cold sw with it and then as the energy disrupts and supports the high that moves into the UK, as we can see now from the ECM later stages we get a clearance of energy to the nw and then as the next  low comes in the energy heads se rather ne.

Edited January 13, 2014 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

Where is Steve "Boom" Murr tonight? Blue army - surely if it's shown by a model then it must be possible? Maybe unlikely but not impossible?

[Downpour]

850s look a bit meh towards the end of what ought to be a promising run. The mild mush over Western Europe and the warm seas are probably to blame, despite cold pooling over Scandi. Still we live in hope that an easterly flow establishes and we see those drop away.

But a long way off. I think we have all semi-retired hurt after last week's fiasco.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Downpour

[Ali1977]

Atlantic stopped in its tracks....from nothing this is amazing, just not going to happen...let's see how the ECM ens/GEFS/ and METO say..

[bluearmy]

the NH pattern on 12z is very similar to 00z but about 800 miles further west. given the strength of the jet off the eastern seaboard at the time that the ridge makes its push west, thats quite a leap of faith. carinthian at the controls ?

[snowmadchrisuk]

 Looks good, but no real cold air over the continent to make a difference.

The Cold uppers are coming from that chart , and having just seen the rest of the run they do come , -10's by +216 Uk wide . 

[Long haul to mild]

Put it this way; after the trials and tribulations of last week, I am going to have to see a lot more cross-model support at a much closer time frame before I am buying into what the ECM has offered tonight!

[Summer Sun]

Yesterday Steve Murr said he wouldn't be posting again for a while tonight's ECM may just bring him back

 

[Ali1977]

Ian F just said some models show cold next week- mmmm maybe the ECM is onto something.

[Hotspur62]

Latest ECM run looks very promising BUT it is only 1 run and after false dawn last week not getting carried away. Would love it to verify as really would love a cold spell but until others are on board I am taking it as a rogue run.If this time tomorrow it still shows potential and UKMO and GFS are on board then maybe,just maybe... lol 

[terrier]

I would advise we ignore the ECM tonight. It just doesn't look feesable to me. Think it's gone off on one again. Only 2 words for this run tonight garden and path.

[Downpour]

Atlantic stopped in its tracks....from nothing this is amazing, just not going to happen...let's see how the ECM ens/GEFS/ and METO say..

Agreed. It barely seems plausible. Looks like a run fit for the shredder but I hope I am wrong.

[Cloud 10]

Where is Steve "Boom" Murr tonight? Blue army - surely if it's shown by a model then it must be possible? Maybe unlikely but not impossible?

 

He should be ready shortly. 

 

[Bristawl Si]

A few experienced posters on here mentioned last week that a second bite of the cherry might be required - maybe what the ECM is showing tonite, for next week, is it?

[bluearmy]

 

Where is Steve "Boom" Murr tonight? Blue army - surely if it's shown by a model then it must be possible? Maybe unlikely but not impossible?

 of course its possible tim but the question we have to ask ourselves is 'looking at all the other models, and the previous run of the ecm, is it likely'? by tomorrow, the other modelling may have changed in which case our viewpoint might also. i did say it is not plausible. that is in the context of all the nwp at 7pm on the 13th jan. the best news tonight is the ukmo at day 6. the ecm latter stages are just another variation from the wide spread avilable in the ensembles over the past few days. good that it sort of follows the trends from the previous two runs but surely it takes them a step too far with its modelling of the atlantic profile post day 6 ?i hope that come tomorrow, i am signing a different tune and perhaps after the ens i might also !! Edited January 13, 2014 by bluearmy

[BristolBaggie]

Oh here we go again... ECM screams potential at 144... I almost don't want to look at the rest of the run because I don't want to get my hopes up AGAIN.Energy headed south east, high being pumped up..,

I think Ian F must have had a quick peek at the ECM before going live on air. He just mentioned the chopping and changing of the models and next week could be either cold or mild

[karlos1983]

If I was a betting man, this will be branded an outlier later, but lovely viewing. Who knows, if it wasn't a possibility it wouldn't be shown 

[nick sussex]

So there we have tonights ECM, welcome to winter at last! However the early timeframes are crucial to build the foundation for that and at T96hrs they've already started but after the last week we need to remain cautious and there are still differences across the models at  early timeframes.

 

I know everyone can't help but feel a little excited myself included but we have learnt a salutary lesson over the last week and thats the models have a problem with modelling high pressure to the ne and for this reason we need to see cross model support for the key early triggers at T72hrs.

[Long haul to mild]

I would advise we ignore the ECM tonight. It just doesn't look feesable to me. Think it's gone off on one again. Only 2 words for this run tonight garden and path.

 

It certainly is  feasible, in that it could occur.

 

Whether it is LIKELY to happen is another matter.