Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[snowmadchrisuk]

Things look to be further west@144! is this better?

 

Id say in the 6z there is a growing signal for wintry showers next week even without the continental influence . At +180 it is a lot further West compared to 00z , just hope we start to see some Atlantic ridging in the Mid Atlantic between the gap . This is where I think upgrades will come from ... 

Edited January 13, 2014 by snowmadchrisuk

[Timmytour]

Colder air hanging on over Scandinavia....but PV not dropping into Russia like before

[snowmadchrisuk]

Colder air hanging on over Scandinavia....but PV not dropping into Russia like before

Looks like a model in the process of working out a new pattern change to me , Expect more changes this evening IMO. 

[bobbydog]

well, it doesn't quite manage the easterly but much closer to the ECM

 

[tight isobar]

6z gfs follows ECM (to an extent).albeit with variables, still think a colder incur will be modeled nearer time frame. Its a flip back of sort. And imo not where it will likely end.(upgrades? !).

[The Eagle]

Further slight weakening of the jet between 120 and 144 to the north is a little progress on the 6z. Let's hope that trend continues. Frustrating overall though.

[Dancerwithwings]

Well what kind of a week we are going to have this week regarding the models, folks. The ECM, JMA this morning are still holding on to thoughts of an Easterly and the rest are not having any of it.

My thoughts on this is that, It's messy and the models are really having problems dealing with the blocking/HP to the East and i still think there maybe a few surprises in store, Its either an Easterly or a Westerly, Which one i favor, Your guess is as good as mine .

My final thoughts on this is, If the ECM forgets the idea later, Well we'll be back to square one! But you never know the GFS/UKMO may do a you turn later when the 12z comes out,

Certainly interesting, But it's all in the hands of Mother nature her self and we all know how quickly she can change

Just looking at 06z GFS, Its showing hints towards the ECM already, The GFS is further west.... But i've always found the GFS to be too progressive, especially when there's blocking involved.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Troubleatmill]

well, it doesn't quite manage the easterly but much closer to the ECM

 

 

Just looking at that Northern Hemisphere chart Bobby makes me think that any block that sets up at the moment will be like a wall made out balsa wood trying to hold back a cannon ball. Really want cold, tired of this mild muddy rubbish, brings down your moral, but need bigger hits on the PV

Edited January 13, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Yarmy]

Well what kind of a week we are going to have this week regarding the models, folks. The ECM, JMA this morning are still holding on to thoughts of an Easterly and the rest are not having any of it.

My thoughts on this is that, It's messy and the models are really having problems dealing with the blocking/HP to the East and i still think there maybe a few surprises in store, Its either an Easter or a Westerly, Which one i favor, Your guess is as good as mine .

My final thoughts on this is, If the ECM forgets the idea later, Well we'll be back to square one! But you never know the GFS/UKMO may do a you turn later when the 12z comes out,

Certainly interesting, But it's all in the hands of Mother nature her self and we all know how quickly she can change

Just looking at 06z GFS, Its showing hints towards the ECM already, The GFS is further west.... But i've always found the GFS to be too progressive, especially when there's blocking involved.

 

JMA is stuck at T84 on Meteociel and Wetterzentrale this morning.

[Purga]

Heights just keep low over the usual place - Greenland.

 

Overall 06z continues the dismal picture. Best to be hoped for is 'average' temps and mostly unsettled.

[snowmadchrisuk]

JMA is stuck at T84 on Meteociel and Wetterzentrale this morning.

it only goes to T84 on the 6z, it will go to T192 on the 12z later .

[Man With Beard]

Can't post charts as on phone but GEFS mean at T120 is trying to rebuild a Scandi HP ala ECM, will be interesting to see if the mean tracks the ECM as far as T168

[ghrud]

Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly, lots of cold building for eastern and north eastern Europe now, for the UK its a mixed bag slightly below normal for the north and Ireland, but slightly above normal for the south, some western coasts and Wales

 

 

 

Gav, just to point out thats not above normal for the south - it's 0.2 - 2C mate, while the rest of the UK remains below.

 

 "slightly below normal for the north and Ireland, but slightly above normal for the south" so the emphasis is average temps for now then.

[Tamara]

There is some evidence for sure of a window of opportunity for a surface cold advected easterly off the continent circa 20th Jan, or just after, as the trough extending from the main upper vortex over Greenland splits and sends some residual energy into Europe with the colder shot occuring in its wake. Due to the presence of the upper vorticity to the NW and the remaining too strong overall energy budget over the polar field there remains very very little, if any, chance of tapping into any of the deeper cold tucked up close to the High between Scandinavia and Russia. But this obviously isn't news by this time (and being the longer shot it was to begin with anyway) it has been well documented and processed into expectations over the weekend period.

 

This window of opportunity for maybe a couple of days or so around/just after 20th Jan represents the best outcome for something colder so far this winter and it should not be expected to deliver a great deal, that is if it does verify. There remains uncertainty in the modelling as there has been for days now over how amplified the pattern may get in terms of upstream developments as well documented by others on this thread.  But the placing of the upper troughing to the NW and the overall amount of energy still present in the NH atmosphere restricts how much amplification there is to play with anyway, and for the time being its about hoping to get the most from the relatively modest potential available

 

The initial amplification for the 'properly cold easterly' was clearly overcooked by the surface synoptic models but there is a better chance of mid latitude surface cold verifying this next time around on the basis that any northern blocking remains very unlikely till we get towards, more especially realistically into the early part of the last third of this winter.

 

After this possible window for a brief chilly easterly, as suggested recently I think that further energy transport is likely across our section of the NH and its worth already factoring in the likelihood (imo) of this in the modelling to come and not getting too frantic and writing winter off if/when this renewed mobility occurs. It is this evolution but more importantly what happens after it that could then lead to the ECM finally getting its more bullish amplification calculations correct.

 

That would make it a completely different matter to the present, but for now remains a case of watching and waiting 

[Blake]

This is how I see things potentially developing... any thoughts?

 

HP black, LP red and I suppose Purple would be the Jet? Jet would either sink south or become less intense.

 

[Troubleatmill]

This is how I see things potentially developing... any thoughts?

 

HP black, LP red and I suppose Purple would be the Jet? Jet would either sink south or become less intense.

 

A better effort than some of the Models we have been seeing i think Matey, cant see how that section of the PV would head North However? Generally once any energy gets south of the Tip of Greenland its one stop trip to Blighty, may split or see the formation of another low on its southern flank, but still be coming our way or Iceland, neither good news. Unfortunately currently the energy is just too strong to our our west for the block too our east, would be a great battle ground if already over us. Hey i hope you are right though, would be great! 

 

Helsinki ensembles showing a united warm up, window closing quickly on this one. Im with Tamara, not too dispondant, it didnt happen as we wanted, but as quickly as one possibility does our head in and dissappears another can open

Edited January 13, 2014 by Nicholas B

[Dancerwithwings]

This is how I see things potentially developing... any thoughts?

 

HP black, LP red and I suppose Purple would be the Jet? Jet would either sink south or become less intense.

 

 

Yeah! Do you have any Animation with that, lol! Joking apart, Theres alot going on there and i'm sure alot of people on here would love that scenario!

I would love to know your thoughts on how you came to this, Because it's certainly an interesting outcome

[nick sussex]

Just caught up with the GFS 06hrs run, that's now trended to the ECM and it looks like a good call by the NAM when it jumped off the faster evolution on its 06hrs run.

 

This really has been a strange week in the models, after the easterly imploded the models really wanted to push the high much further to the east and it was like Flash Gordon had finally met a grisly end, I think today he's landed on the ledge which just happened to be there over the cliff, you'll only get that if like me you were a big fan as a child especially at Xmas time when they often showed the repeats!

 

I think an analogy here would be the boat has hit the rocks , it was taking on water but we've managed to plug the leak for the timebeing!

 

The ECM De Bilt ensembles almost mirror the emotions in here in terms of their cold for Holland, basically up, down and all over the place!

 

The last few runs here, I had been saving them every day but when the easterly debacle really started gathering pace it was just too traumatic!

 

ECM 12hrs

 

 

ECM 00hrs

 

 

De Bilt is often a good bellwether in this type of set up, although of course you can get cold there and the UK can still miss out but at least this shows us how far west the deeper cold has gotten in those ensembles.

Edited January 13, 2014 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

as far as the initial period of troughing is concerned nick, the ecm op has it holding west of the ens which want to trend over holland/w germany. clearly, we will be colder under the trough initially as the warmer uppers are thrown ahead of it. the ecm solution currently seems quite reasonable though at the moment. the ens want to take that trough to our east leaving us under a mean lee norwester until the stronger jet comes blasting across (which has been progged for days now but isnt really getting that much closer). there seems little point in dissecting the next 2 weeks because the initial trough disruption remains unclear, both in its evolution and location and the upstream is also uncertain re its timing and amplification. thinking back to saturday night and the points i mentioned remain valid :

quote:

the blocking is nearly always stronger than modelled. the jet seems keen to head se rather than ne. the upstream pattern of repeating deep troughs should continue to supply a more meridional pattern than gfs will show, especially in low res. i suspect we will see more of that colder air seeping west over the next 10/14 days than the nwp currently shows. whether it gets this far is questionable.

nearly 48 hours later - have we moved on at all ??

[nick sussex]

as far as the initial period of troughing is concerned nick, the ecm op has it holding west of the ens which want to trend over holland/w germany. clearly, we will be colder under the trough initially as the warmer uppers are thrown ahead of it. the ecm solution currently seems quite reasonable though at the moment. the ens want to take that trough to our east leaving us under a mean lee norwester until the stronger jet comes blasting across (which has been progged for days now but isnt really getting that much closer). there seems little point in dissecting the next 2 weeks because the initial trough disruption remains unclear, both in its evolution and location and the upstream is also uncertain re its timing and amplification. thinking back to saturday night and the points i mentioned remain valid :quote:the blocking is nearly always stronger than modelled. the jet seems keen to head se rather than ne. the upstream pattern of repeating deep troughs should continue to supply a more meridional pattern than gfs will show, especially in low res. i suspect we will see more of that colder air seeping west over the next 10/14 days than the nwp currently shows. whether it gets this far is questionable.nearly 48 hours later - have we moved on at all ??

BA do you remember when we had that day when there was a sudden change in the outputs in terms of the high and negative AO going quickly positive and the models really wanted to finish off any lingering hopes of something colder. Any ideas as to what happened, rogue output, poor data inclusion in the Arctic oceans, the models over reacting to an upstream signal?

[Nick F]

00z ECMWF London op close to the EPS average for day time temps but slightlly above average for night time temps for the timeframe of the potential disruption shown by the 00z op, so not too shabby support for a colder evolution. Though it's difficult to work out where the flows from to bring the lower temps, could be a NW'erly equally as an easterly to bring the colder air.

 

 

It's a shame that the bods at ECMWF pulled the plug on the postage stamps out to t+168, as this is the timeframe that we start to see the disruption occur.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Nick F

[MR EXTREMES]

From what I can see and herd from Tamara I think it's safe to say there really is nothing favourable from a colder outlook cooler yes colder no.

Its to complicated and favourable reconnection are not on our side.

The models have no clue and the best we can hope for is perhaps a lull and mid lat block and or a return to a vortex dominated outlook.

January a certain right of.

Although mild does not feature cool ish.

[Tamara]

as far as the initial period of troughing is concerned nick, the ecm op has it holding west of the ens which want to trend over holland/w germany. clearly, we will be colder under the trough initially as the warmer uppers are thrown ahead of it. the ecm solution currently seems quite reasonable though at the moment. the ens want to take that trough to our east leaving us under a mean lee norwester until the stronger jet comes blasting across (which has been progged for days now but isnt really getting that much closer). there seems little point in dissecting the next 2 weeks because the initial trough disruption remains unclear, both in its evolution and location and the upstream is also uncertain re its timing and amplification. thinking back to saturday night and the points i mentioned remain valid :

quote:

the blocking is nearly always stronger than modelled. the jet seems keen to head se rather than ne. the upstream pattern of repeating deep troughs should continue to supply a more meridional pattern than gfs will show, especially in low res. i suspect we will see more of that colder air seeping west over the next 10/14 days than the nwp currently shows. whether it gets this far is questionable.

nearly 48 hours later - have we moved on at all ??

The block to the NE is indeed proving stronger than suggested by the models, and that has been the thinking anyway of various members who have posted on here  The point is though that although there is a possible easterly modelled for that short period in a week or so time, the overall background pattern at presents makes, imo, any of the deeper cold to our east arriving here a longer shot.  The blocking to the NE may, as anticipated be proving to be more resilient but we are unlikely to fully benefit from this until the overall system loses vorticity energy within it to the NW and the block is then able to head west. The method this might happen could be via a burst of westerlies (which I think are likely, irrespective of the block staying some way to the NE) followed by an amplified atlantic ridge on the back of trough disruption then linking to the heights to the NE, and hopefully, finally pulling them westwards. That is of course rather speculative at this distance I know - but it might fit in with the provisionally forecasted wave activity on the vortex. This is of course a forecast and, obviously, a little way out.

 

In the meantime, the uncertainties, which of course exist within the next two weeks and might well provide something colder (which is to be welcomed) are still unlikely to lead to anything signficant until the potential warming happens further down the line. We have to wait and watch on this for some time - but my own opinion is that expectations should not be too high to get the core of any deeper cold this far west before then. Delighted of course as ever to be proved wrong.

 

@ emotional rollercoaster - there are plenty of other opinions that could be correct and are very valuable

Edited January 13, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[nick sussex]

00z ECMWF London op close to the EPS average for day time temps but slightlly above average for night time temps for the timeframe of the potential disruption shown by the 00z op, so not too shabby support for a colder evolution. Though it's difficult to work out where the flows from to bring the lower temps, could be a NW'erly equally as an easterly to bring the colder air.:

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

It's a shame that the bods at ECMWF pulled the plug on the postage stamps out to t+168, as this is the timeframe that we start to see the disruption occur.

Yes they're being such a tease by just giving them upto 120hrs. In terms of those postage stamps  its clear that those graphical ones I posted would look a lot better if the majority of the ensembles were on board with the operational run,the positive tilt ones that generally have the pattern too far east already to be saved in terms of the colder evolution.

 

Do we trust the ECM operational at T120hrs given recent events? if the solution is no worse than that at T120hrs or one of those ensembles with the better negative tilt and further west then those ensembles could change markedly in a short space of time.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011300!!/

Edited January 13, 2014 by Nick F

[nick sussex]

I'm trying to remain as reserved as possible here re any colder weather because we've all been put through the mill over the last week. But the early timeframe here is so crucial to how the pattern could develop, for newbies I'd advise you to keep a close eye on this area circled red:

 

 

As you can see on this chart you've got the darker blues , so you lose some of the forcing on the low, essentially here we're trying to get that low further south and west.

 

So we would need to see the high further nw and extending a ridge into that area this acts like a weight pressing down on the low and increasing the chance of it disrupting sooner.

 

If you look at those ECM postage stamps you will likely find a strong correlation between where the high is and how it ridges across to that area with the colder outcome, of course we also have upstream changes we'd like to see but in terms of the early part of the outputs that circled red area is certainly very important.