Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Bristawl Si]

 

The much maligned CFSv2 has been consistently predicting a milder and wetter than average January and February.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece1Mon.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

I thought the other day CFS was predicting a cold, snowy spell for next week and into the following week, along with the other duff model runs.

[MPG]

Why would we be looking for the next opportunity when this one is still unfolding? Learned members of this forum have said there will be lots of solutions so I am not panicking yet.

 

The low and its orientation will change right up to 24hrs before so IMO nothing is a done deal yet and to quote my favourite phrase from last winter 'Shannon entropy ensues'.

There has to be a massive turn around in the current output to see the sort of models we had on wednesday. Next week looks very wet, the ensemble shows nothing below -5 for london until after the 17th, a massive week away.

Edited January 10, 2014 by MPG

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

 I thought the other day CFS was predicting a cold, snowy spell for next week and into the following week, along with the other duff model runs.

CFS is an absolute joke.

Tea leaves spring to mind.

Anyway,06z is another dreadful run for coldies with a series of stalling fronts on our doorstep and a very mobile setup with the high just to far away to influence the UK but close enough to slow the depressions down right where we dont want them to slow down!

There just seems to be no end to that awful profile to the north west.

Oh to see some yellows and oranges there.

[MPG]

 I thought the other day CFS was predicting a cold, snowy spell for next week and into the following week, along with the other duff model runs.

The cfs WAS showing Jan and Feb with massive northern blocking from Octobler last year, now its flipped. By what Nick had to say about changing upstream patterns could be key to what happens the end of next week.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is far from settled, general pattern is playing out but the detail is far from settled.  For me I have strong signal that coinciding with full moon [16th] will be another important weather period and this LP will be a big player.  I think this LP to our west will cause us more problems, will it be rain all the way, will it be rain and turn to snow, will it disrupt and slide or sit there and drench us.  Lots to play out yet and we may not really know until its within t72.  I anticipate as is getting shown the jet disrupted and bcome meridional.  Projection shows it diving to Africa!!!

A scandi HP for me is a pleasant appearance as I thought the main block would be further S and E and that this LP would cross the UK with the block gradually moving W NW over the rest of Jan.  Well the block is much further north so I am hopeful that this will still progres ever so slowly W...and a much better starting point for me.

I see the GEM still plays ball, yes less clean but still very good, fascinating to see that it sees any SW off west coast of Norway as a much smaller issue than the others and slides the LPs into Europe.  the fact it still hasn't flipped for me means I'm sticking with it....the LP will disrupt and slide under.

UKMO 120 to 144 shows the LP moving SSE......THAT WILL DO FOR ME.

As per lrf I too have warming progged for end of month hence why I think blocking will be shifting to our NW slowly as we get to end of Jan.

I want to add that just because a quick real cold thrust has been removed we are still talking t120-144 timescale, the broader pattern of block to NE and split jet remain.  We haven't lost anything yet because we haven't got there yet.  Adjustments on each run continue which IMO should lessen an individuals confidence in a particular run's outcome.

 

 

 

BFTP 

Edited January 10, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

Right back from the bakery! So much for my new healthy eating resolution, that lasted all of a week!

 

So the GFS 06hrs run backs the ECM 00hrs in terms of the NH pattern. However the models are still making a mess IMO of the pattern over western Europe, the funny thing is that the overall pattern continues to improve whilst the UK still seems to have its cold force field in place!

 

The orientation of the PV at 180hrs is really very good for bringing cold to the UK, so I've decided to just use my own experience here and I simply do not see how cold won't get to the UK, you  would need every possible drama going to not get something good for coldies out of the upstream pattern, especially with the blocking signal still evident to the east.

 

People can possibly think I'm in denial which is fair enough but I do feel the models are making a complete hash of the set up and would rather just go on past experience of these set ups and also that PV orientation, it simply screams cold for the UK!

[Tim Bland]

looks as though the US continues to steal our winter!  Some real desperation in here today with the chinese and indian models being dragged out and desperate calls for Steve or Ian to give us some nuggets of comfort! I personlay feel we will have at least 1 cold spell in Feb but overall this winter is a dissapointing one. We should remember though that we have been spoilt in recent winters and for most 3 days of lying snow per year is the average.  

[Troubleatmill]

The jet really isnt doing us any favours here either, the way it drops off to our southwest toward north africa, gives the low no reason to go eastwards, its not being pushed that way so stays put, maybe to our south but no further east, sods law, really need an injection to get it through to drag in colder uppers 

 

 

[nick sussex]

looks as though the US continues to steal our winter!  Some real desperation in here today with the chinese and indian models being dragged out and desperate calls for Steve or Ian to give us some nuggets of comfort! I personlay feel we will have at least 1 cold spell in Feb but overall this winter is a dissapointing one. We should remember though that we have been spoilt in recent winters and for most 3 days of lying snow per year is the average.  

Tim I think you're worrying too much about it being cold in the ne USA, that's not a problem if you have blocking to help split the jet as it comes out of there.

 

The problem wasn't so much the cold over there but the lack of blocking to deflect it more favourably, but I agree the Chinese and Indian models are garbage and shouldn't see the light of day!

[warrenb]

I think the best way to explain what is happening is the following

To much amplification: Say you are a scalectrix car and you approach a sharp turn with a wall behind it, you will come off the track but can't move forward because of the wall.

When the jet is to amplified, this is exactly what happens, the low charges across on the jet, hits the turn to fast and becomes cut off. The wall is the blocking high to the east so the low just sits in situ.

 

So typically, we have a jet that is to amplified and a blocking high that is just to far east.

[Purga]

Tim I think you're worrying too much about it being cold in the ne USA, that's not a problem if you have blocking to help split the jet as it comes out of there.

 

The problem wasn't so much the cold over there but the lack of blocking to deflect it more favourably, but I agree the Chinese and Indian models are garbage and shouldn't see the light of day!

1947 had record cold in the USA in fact i believe their all time low temp was recorded then. No comment needed on what happen here!

[Cloud 10]

Tim I think you're worrying too much about it being cold in the ne USA, that's not a problem if you have blocking to help split the jet as it comes out of there.

 

The problem wasn't so much the cold over there but the lack of blocking to deflect it more favourably, but I agree the Chinese and Indian models are garbage and shouldn't see the light of day!

 

I take it there's no love for the NASA model either Nick? 

 

[iamgazza]

Well the latest gfs charts are shocking to say the least. Plenty more flooding to come next week i feel.Think any hope of cold next week is now dead. Hopefully we will see at least one cold blast feb time. But until then the charts just keep us in the unsettled spell for the next 10 days at least. Not good for the areas down south at all.

I'm reserving judgement until saturday nightsunday morning's runs. A lot to play for currently and I feel the models aren't coping very well at the moment. Edited January 10, 2014 by iamgazza

[nick sussex]

I think the best way to explain what is happening is the following

To much amplification: Say you are a scalectrix car and you approach a sharp turn with a wall behind it, you will come off the track but can't move forward because of the wall.

When the jet is to amplified, this is exactly what happens, the low charges across on the jet, hits the turn to fast and becomes cut off. The wall is the blocking high to the east so the low just sits in situ.

 

So typically, we have a jet that is to amplified and a blocking high that is just to far east.

That's a good point Warren but  its to do with timing also, there is still room for changes especially when you see how close the cold air is to the east on the ECM, and also the models may well move things further west because of that renewed amplification over the USA.

Edited January 10, 2014 by nick sussex

[winterof79]

Any one feel GFS is being too progressive with the atlantic air at 144?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011006/gfs-0-144.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011006/gfs-1-144.png?6

 

Nearly every other model has the atlantic held further west hence colder 850s

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011000/ECM1-144.GIF?10-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011000/ECM0-144.GIF?10-12

UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011000/UW144-21.GIF?10-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011000/UW144-7.GIF?10-06

GEM and CMA and NCMRWF better orientation too

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011000/gem-0-144.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011000/gem-1-144.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2014011000/cma-0-144.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2014011000/cma-1-144.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwf/runs/2014011000/ncmrwf-0-144.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwf/runs/2014011000/ncmrwf-1-144.png?00

 

I hope it corrects s/e on the 12z

[nick sussex]

I take it there's no love for the NASA model either Nick? 

 

geosnh-0-120.png

Yes sorry Cloud that goes in the trash aswell! NASA should stick to space! I think the Chinese, Indians, NASA, NAVGEM should spend their time and money on other things because they're useless at NWP.

 

Just to clarify I'm talking about weather prediction and not the people! I really don't know why other organisations bother with the NWP if its so unreliable, better off just paying the ECM for their data!

Edited January 10, 2014 by nick sussex

[winterof79]

Tim I think you're worrying too much about it being cold in the ne USA, that's not a problem if you have blocking to help split the jet as it comes out of there.

 

The problem wasn't so much the cold over there but the lack of blocking to deflect it more favourably, but I agree the Chinese and Indian models are garbage and shouldn't see the light of day!

They may be cannon fodder Nick but they do show the same set up as the GEM at 144 ....today and it is worth a mention

Edited January 10, 2014 by winterof79

[nick sussex]

They may be cannon fodder Nick but they do show the same set up as the GEM at 144 ....today and it is worth a mention

Okay, lets hope the Chinese and Indian models have finally thrown two sixes after about a thousand attempts!

[legritter]

Yes would not be surprised to see a potential flooding risk setting up again .and something to take note of ,those cold charts of two days ago were Modeled by Ecm GEM and GFS for a while ,they certainly latched on to something and could quite easily again .So some interesting model watching coming up folks .

[Ali1977]

I have a feeling a new trend is about to show up over the next 36 hours, maybe starting with WAA into Greenland producing a Northerly, eventually an easterly and Scandy high. Not much vortex over USA into FI, and the strat also moving towards Russia May help with this.

Maybe wishing this though, although cryptic messages from Ian F have gave an impression of possible changes later Jan.

[Weathizard]

Just had a look through the GEFS 6z ensembles and it's a pretty miserable looking lot! Can't see one that brings in an particularly cold air in the next 7 days, disappointing output this morning for me but it's swings and roundabouts, unfortunately looking like we may be at the mercy of a cut of low, which means more dreary wet weather.

Could still change though, of course.

[Panayiotis]

The Chinese model was awful compared to the rest of the models yesterday, flip today though!

[snowice]

That's a good point Warren but  its to do with timing also, there is still room for changes especially when you see how close the cold air is to the east on the ECM, and also the models may well move things further west because of that renewed amplification over the USA.

 

HI Nick,

 

what time frame do you think renewed amplification over the USA might take place?

[Mucka]

Right back from the bakery! So much for my new healthy eating resolution, that lasted all of a week!

 

So the GFS 06hrs run backs the ECM 00hrs in terms of the NH pattern. However the models are still making a mess IMO of the pattern over western Europe, the funny thing is that the overall pattern continues to improve whilst the UK still seems to have its cold force field in place!

 

The orientation of the PV at 180hrs is really very good for bringing cold to the UK, so I've decided to just use my own experience here and I simply do not see how cold won't get to the UK, you  would need every possible drama going to not get something good for coldies out of the upstream pattern, especially with the blocking signal still evident to the east.

 

People can possibly think I'm in denial which is fair enough but I do feel the models are making a complete hash of the set up and would rather just go on past experience of these set ups and also that PV orientation, it simply screams cold for the UK!

 

No doubt about that Nick. Not often you see low pressure do two U-turns!

 

That said it does seem certain that low pressure is still forcing the pattern and high pressure will be too far East to bring in any cold mid month as previously hoped.

We are then looking for another attempt just after mid month to get the desired undercut and if everything went our way we could still pull some cold air in from around the 18th so we are long way back from where we were a couple of days ago and still drifting the wrong way.

 

You are certainly not in denial but the reality is that none of the models bring in cold air for the next 10 days and the ensembles are less than inspiring as well so my expectations are we have probably missed the boat though I wouldn't write off colder weather later for the reasons you state.

I sincerely hope this dreadful winter does not throw up the worse case scenario it is currently modelling, lots more rain for the west, only feeling cold as well.

Swapping cold and wet for mild and wet at this stage of the Winter when we were so close to an exciting change would be a kick in the teeth.

 

Here's to optimism over pessimism though.

 

Talking of which. A very weak signal for pressure rises to the NW end of Jan. No charts as usual for these long range signals of pressure rises because they are simply what I extrapolate from pouring over ensemble charts. Sometimes they disappear quickly so hardly worth a mention for now, just sewing the seed.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Mucka

[johnholmes]

maybe the link below to the US area on GFS will show you where the amplification is being shown on the latest GFS, although if you follow my pdf it is quite clearly part of the pattern that the anomaly charts have been shoing for several days, best you read the longish one I did yesterday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnam.html

Do NOT expect to see surface detail in this area though prior to about 96h if you want to see a realistic chart.