Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[stratty]

Welcome to the mad house

 

First post so please don't shoot me down - I'm new to all this 

 

Seen this JMA +192, is it any good cold wise? What's the JMA like for reliability? 

 

 

 

The uncertainty in the outlook beyond 5 days maybe lies in the shape of the disruption to the vortex.

 

JMA suggests a wave 2 event-Atlantic ridging into the heart of the pv- as well as that American wave number 1.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014011912/JN192-21.GIF?19-12

 

dropping a lobe of the vortex down over the UK and opening the door for a ne flow.

 

On the face of it an outsider from this range but with zonal winds continuing to slow up above these continuing 2 pronged attacks on the pv are becoming more apparent in modeling.

A very tricky time for the daily operational runs to remain consistent run to run even in the shorter range.

 

see Phils post a couple of pages ago

Edited January 19, 2014 by stratty

[Long haul to mild]

First post so please don't shoot me down - I'm new to all this 

 

Seen this JMA +192, is it any good cold wise? What's the JMA like for reliability? 

 

Sadly the JMA is not normally considered to be one of the top models, but we could certainly do with it being correct tonight, because that's a good chart, and certainly better than anything else on offer at present!

[weather eater]

 

 

ultimately, the mean drives the vortex lobe into the n atlantic as per the op.  not sure the mean is going to be too useful over the next fortnight. one of the clusterings is probably right. which bloody one ?????

And that sums up the ensembles for me, one clustering may be right, but it might not the largest or even one of them and sometimes it’s none of them. Trouble with the ensembles is you need to be a skilled and dispassionate reader of them to make the best call and even then you are as like as not to be wrong.

 

 

 

s4lancia re your last post, that's as good an assessment as I’ve seen this evening.

Edited January 19, 2014 by weather eater

[UV-RAY]

The only thing I see is PV stayingvto NW and very little change to overall pattern. I think we may see low heights to NW lift a touch as we enter Feb allowing HP be more dominant. But mid lat HP and not Arctic. Until then more of the same......and longer term? No major flip in my mind. I mentioned other day the HP to our SW is a major cold pain.BFTP

Much as I see the way forward Fred, silk purse. sows ear springs to mind. At least next weekend gives some of us the opportunity of seeing something wintry  possibly, but I still can't see anything in any output I've seen to get excited about.

[near northampton]

SS This is the model discussion thread, not the Cut and Paste thread, For such a prolific poster some discussion of the multitude of charts you post would be welcome. 

 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2014 by Osbourne One-Nil

[SouthernSaint]

Welcome to the mad house

 

 

 

 

see Phils post a couple of pages ago

 

Thanks. 

 

Sorry, didn't notice that post. I'm trying to keep up with it all the moment! 

[Duane S.]

Well it looks like the jet firing up again at end of the week bringing more heavy just what we don't need really. And as gibby has said very little signs of anything cold in next 10 days.

Well, that's that then. More 'heavy just' and gibby has said no cold in 10 days. Good grief...

[Mucka]

First post so please don't shoot me down - I'm new to all this 

 

Seen this JMA +192, is it any good cold wise? What's the JMA like for reliability? 

 

 

 

Hi and welcome.

That particular wouldn't be cold but as the low moved away SE we would drag cold air in from the north and if there were a next chart we would be in Arctic air and likely we would have a cold spell because the Atlantic ridge does not look like a simple toppler.

All the models are unreliable at that sort of range which is why they all show something different but overall the JMA ranks somewhere close to GFS I believe.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Mucka

[Purga]

First post so please don't shoot me down - I'm new to all this 

 

Seen this JMA +192, is it any good cold wise? What's the JMA like for reliability? 

 

Yes that is a great chart for cold potential, thanks for posting it. Without referring you to model reliability statistics (I'm sure others can) I would say the jma is a respectable model to consider but not quite up there in the same league as say ECM / UKMO / GFS.

Keep posting it's great to have fresh input and just ignore it if anyone 'shoots you down in flames' the mods will / should handle this.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Purga

[tight isobar]

Sadly the JMA is not normally considered to be one of the top models, but we could certainly do with it being correct tonight, because that's a good chart, and certainly better than anything else on offer at present!

there are some that recognise the Japanese model with reasonable high regard. But anyway atm I hold no mod nearer nor neither, its I think going to take a little more time for a clear solutions to be formidably reached.we have after all at stages had cross mod agree of sorts, and then been slapped in the face with AGAIN where we are again, in truth absolutely nobody (to my mind) is aware of consequences of current.output is in distress , and understandably so. However on a personal view the pv has reigned ultimate for some time. ?..time for a new challenger.

[ARNOTT ad]

But its been well advertised that no cold pattern, if it was going to occur, was likely at all until at least the end period of January and more likely into February. I know I have said that myself countless times. 

 

The way I see it is completely the opposite  - it shouldn't be a surprise at all that we are still waiting and could well have to wait for a little longer. The period in question hasn't even arrived yet and I've considered the recent missed easterly and the borderline one under the microscope for potential snow next weekend a large bonus if they occured against the background pattern. I've said that so many times as well on this thread..

 

Its strange and rather a new experience to find myself seeing the model output meeting expectations whilst it seems to be frustrating and disappointing so many others. There may be no guarantees that the changes occuring will lead to snowflakes over the UK down the road, but whilst none of us are prophets, lets at least wait till the period in question before venting so much frustration and making so many snap decisions. Its only the weather !

It's not only the weather when your starved of snow in 'season winter'. !!

[Cloud 10]

An interesting read here about the performance of the 4 GFS daily runs.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pdf

Edited January 19, 2014 by Cloud 10

[The Northern Ramper]

As a coldie I hate to say this but 2013/14 is heading towards as poor a winter as anything to rival the 90's, I hope that certain posters in this thread are very happy with their flooding and Zonal mush........strange.

[NickR]

Note I'm not talking cold/snow prospects in my comment. I am utterly ambiguous on all that 'hunt for cold stuff'. I was more struck by the deep cyclonicity and the positioning/broadscale variance from other operational centre DET solutions.

Do you mean "ambivalent"?

[phil nw.]

Ok by popular request i am locking this thread and opening a new one shortly so finish any posts now and then give me a couple of minutes.

Cheers.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As a coldie I hate to say this but 2013/14 is heading towards as poor a winter as anything to rival the 90's, I hope that certain posters in this thread are very happy with their flooding and Zonal mush........strange.

 

Yeah, they will think again if the flooding affects them! Richie V, get flooded!!!!!!!

[phil nw.]

OK locking this now.

New thread here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/