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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Weatherman said fog and frost early in week, rain midweek and then slowly turning colder. That is a good base to build from I think.

But please show me the charts to prove it ,Frosty? Nothing in the models to say anything but Atlantic dominatedPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

It is not for anyone to convince you but it has been said that the models will struggle with the current set up and it would be wise not take each run at face value at the moment.

Also nobody as far as I know has predicted a big freeze, all that has been said is that a pattern change is under way and there is potential for the UK to get its first cold shot toward the end of January. Of course things may not turn out that way and we may see something more like ECM than JMA but there is simply no way to call it at that moment.

 

What I can tell you for certain is that tomorrows charts 144/168h will look  different to those modelled today - isn't that good reason enough to not discount a cold shot later in the month?

I think the problem for many Mucka is that a pattern change has been touted for the last two weeks and all that has happened is that we have swopped vigorous zonal for less vigorous zonal, with a very real prospect of a return to a more vigorous zonal looming on the horizon, although somewhat more PM at times. I note IF again alluding to dear old Shannon E, however the output in high res looks pretty consistent to me at a time when I would be expecting to see more variation with Shannon in town and any pattern change to something colder seems to wither on the vine as soon as we get below 144hrs give or take a little, so it’s no surprise to see doubt creep in with regards to posts suggesting just wait a little longer.

I have to say to everyone that that’s all there is, model projections can never be trusted beyond 120hrs and its perfectly possible that a surprise gift is just around the corner or just another steaming pile of crud, only time will tell, fascinating isn’t it, least I find it so.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

But please show me the charts to prove it ,Frosty? Nothing in the models to say anything but Atlantic dominatedPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

the models show wet windy snow for higher hills and more flooding bit like the bbc news saying theres no more risk of flooding well almost tempted to drop an email to say have you seen the models lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

240 on ECM? most unreliable model chart ever! no break there, massivest straw clutch ever on here

 

It's on the GFS as well at a similar time frame. Not saying that it will happen or that it's our saviour, but it's there and therefore up for discussion :)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011912/gfs-0-264.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

But please show me the charts to prove it ,Frosty? Nothing in the models to say anything but Atlantic dominatedPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

BBC News 24 weather expert is good enough for me, mogreps must be looking better than the confused op runs.
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I am as frustrated as any other coldie out there but I am finding the model output to be extremely intriguing at the moment. ECM will struggle with this as much as any other model as the degree of amplification to our north west is all important here and I think many forum members now realise that ecm struggles in this area, especially to the south of Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The uncertainty in the outlook beyond 5 days maybe lies in the shape of the disruption to the vortex.

 

JMA suggests a wave 2 event-Atlantic ridging into the heart of the pv- as well as that American wave number 1.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014011912/JN192-21.GIF?19-12

 

dropping a lobe of the vortex down over the UK and opening the door for a ne flow.

 

On the face of it an outsider from this range but with zonal winds continuing to slow up above these continuing 2 pronged attacks on the pv are becoming more apparent in modeling.

A very tricky time for the daily operational runs to remain consistent run to run even in the shorter range.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Lookin forward to gibbys wintry update, come on gibby give us some snow or even a couple of wet flakes...:-)

 

Just read Gibby's update on his site nothing wintry on his latest update I'm afraid

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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

I'm wondering if there is much point in all the wealth of information and explanation being given on these pages from various members, not least the input of behind the scenes thoughts relayed from Exeter about the complexities that are going on in the pattern, when I read some of the knee jerk responses to every operational output, yet again in evidence, on this page....

I agree Tamara and a few others "J10Great Plumsnowking and 60 others like this"

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

With all this talk of bbc forecasts for the end of the week, it will be interesting to see how much the raw output is modified this evening on the 120 fax chart.

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

gfs ensembles

 

london

 

Posted Image

 

manchester

 

Posted Image

 

aberdeen

Posted Image

 

 

dublin

 

Posted Image

 

look at the spread on the 25th

 

with so much scatter there i am not looking any further

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

BBC News 24 weather expert is good enough for me, mogreps must be looking better than the confused op runs.

Except frosty there are no confused op runs, least wise no more confused than they are any other day of the week, in fact I would say the ops are pretty steady in high res and low res is irrelevant, as we have seen a number of time already this winter and we can only report on the models we can view.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Just read Gibby's update on his site nothing wintry on his latest update I'm afraid

yes, hardly surprising, given the output tonight. I don't believe gibby comments on the jma, so its the Atlantic in the driving seat!
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Weatherman said fog and frost early in week, rain midweek and then slowly turning colder. That is a good base to build from I think.

I'm pretty certain those turning colder at the end of the week forecasts were made prior to the 12z.
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

gfs ensembles

 

london

 

Posted Image

 

manchester

 

Posted Image

 

aberdeen

Posted Image

 

 

dublin

 

Posted Image

 

look at the spread on the 25th

 

with so much scatter there i am not looking any further

indeed plenty of wet weather in there to which would show low pressure dominated over the uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

gfs ensembles

 

london

 

Posted Image

 

manchester

 

Posted Image

 

aberdeen

Posted Image

 

 

dublin

 

Posted Image

 

look at the spread on the 25th

 

with so much scatter there i am not looking any further

Hi

That spread to me only looks to be with respect to the timing of when the next warm sector pushes in from the west. With the pattern too Far East this timing issue does not appear to have ramifications with regard to the milder air arriving or not. Most members are showing the sine wave pattern of transient ridge/trough, the scatter makes it look uncertain but again the timing is the main cause of this. There are about three members that are synoptically outliers, they maintain the cold uppers for several days.

Strangely I was thinking inter and cross model, we are as close as we have been to clarity for sometime!

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

But its been well advestised that no cold pattern, if it was going to occur, was likely at all until at least the end period of January and more likely into February. I know I have said that myself countless times. 

 

The way I see it is completely the opposite  - it shouldn't be a surprise at all that we are still waiting and could well have to wait for a little longer. The period in question hasn't even arrived yet and I've considered the recent missed easterly and the borderline one under the microscope for potential snow next weekend a large bonus if they occured against the background pattern. I've said that so many times as well on this thread..

 

Its strange and rather a new experience to find myself seeing the model output meeting expectations whilst it seems to be frustrating and disappointing so many others. There may be no guarantees that the changes occuring will lead to snowflakes over the UK down the road, but whilst none of us are prophets, lets at least wait till the period in question before venting so much frustration and making so many snap decisions. Its only the weather !Posted Image

Thank you Tamara-Yet another impartial and honest assessment of what this winter has bought/may well give us this winter. The next 7-10 days is a very important period and may well determine what Feb holds for us. If just for a change, lets hope it's not the same weather that the last 7-8 weeks has given us!!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I'm pretty certain those turning colder at the end of the week forecasts were made prior to the 12z.

Thats a good point. I have noticed quite a few times how the bbc forecasts seem to be 6 to 12 hours behind the latest model runs. It makes sense really as it will take time to filter the latest model runs into the tv forecasts.
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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Hmm, seems to be a real 'slash the wrists' type reaction by some in this thread this evening......When you have a met office pro in Ian F and not to mention Steve Murr, Tamara, John Holmes and numerous others stating that there is low confidence in any output post T96 and also the very fact that there is a big spread on the GEFS ensemble suite, well, that should be telling you all something!........I know we've had a horrible winter in terms of cold and snowfall so far, but the model output across the board makes for fascinating watching with constant swings in synoptics and intriguing hints of what may evolve so please no more 'emotional' outpourings (or stick them in the moaning/ramping thread) look a the evolving much bigger picture, and have patience! Posted Image

Trouble is low confidence does not mean cold and snow are hiding around the corner waiting to pounce and a spread ensemble suite also doesn’t mean that either, I wouldn’t mind a tenner for every time the ensembles had been touted as a savour on this thread, only for them to have no more meaning than just following the ops. Yes there is uncertainty, there is always uncertainty past 96hrs or 120-144hrs it can vary a bit and nobody should be giving up the winter or even the next couple of weeks based on any model projection that would be foolish, but I think its far to say that there is very little in the current modelling to suggest a major change is on the way, just a few hints that there is some possibilities. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Not picking on anyone specifically but a number of views posted in here are more in hope than supported by any outputs.

 

Please try and keep those to the other thread here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

otherwise it makes things even more difficult for newcomers especially to understand what the model runs are actually showing.

 

Thanks everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Why are the 12z op runs taken as gospel? I will stick to what the experts are saying thank u.

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