Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[nick sussex]

I'd be interested to see what the numbers are re the AO and NAO, is this the biggest disconnect ever?

 

The ECM now seems to want to take the PV eastwards, finally clearing Canada but for how long, and is this the correct signal? Overall I think its down to the 168hrs chart for changes, if the energy phases then that's it for another week at least, if not then perhaps something like the JMA could occur, overall a disappointing evening in the outputs, we couldn't even scrape a little interest with the Scandi high and then now have to sit and hope for some good luck at T168hrs.

 

The only crumb of comfort is that the GFS is unlikely to verify and the Arctic high is still there and hasn't  gone to the lifeboats to leave what is fast turning into the SS Crxp Winter!

[fergieweather]

Even taking the 12z JMA at face value (T+192) is sufficient demonstration of how uncertain the post-weekend period becomes. Nothing beyond even Friday holds particularly high confidence.

[Stuie]

Even taking the 12z JMA at face value (T+192) is sufficient demonstration of how uncertain the post-weekend period becomes. Nothing beyond even Friday holds particularly high confidence.

Ian, you may of just saved the Prozac. 

[TSNWK]

Even taking the 12z JMA at face value (T+192) is sufficient demonstration of how uncertain the post-weekend period becomes. Nothing beyond even Friday holds particularly high confidence.[/

Well I guess that's something, if Shannon is around then we might still be in game with this scandi high next weekend onwards..

[MR EXTREMES]

No it could be worse buddy, its just that limpet like pv over Quebec, its just gonna keep firing up the jet and flattening it all, major amplification in the northern pacific cancelled out by that PV monster, really starting to hate it with a passion

you and me both but the mjo projections and the ecm was no surprise to me I think really its all about basic common sense you don't need to be an expert to voice what you see from the models.

 

a good point made earlier by someone who suggested that us that are frustrated need something more substantial to go on and it is correct everything has backed of teleconnections do not favour anything dramatic in regards to cold.

 

although a tiny risk of something wintry in the southeast at the end of the week,

but even with this im very sceptical so at least now we can scan the models for how wet and windy its going to be I be glad when the winter is over.

 

and indeed we need the pv to our east but its very unlikely.

Edited January 19, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM 240 : Not the first chart today that suggests that the PV may be relocating East. Could this be the break we need, especially if it means that it has moved from Greenland?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011912/ECM1-240.GIF?19-0

 

240 on ECM? most unreliable model chart ever! no break there, massivest straw clutch ever on here

[Mucka]

This is a serious question. This evening all 3 major models have continued to back away from the arctic high option a trend which has been in progress since Saturday mornings runs.Earlier this afternoon there were remarks that some posters were over reacting to one run being flat with no sign of cold, ok I say to the experienced posters who remarked, please try to convince me and others that there is way to decent cold and it's associated risk of snow. I for one can only go with what is offered to me by the models..

 

It is not for anyone to convince you but it has been said that the models will struggle with the current set up and it would be wise not take each run at face value at the moment.

Also nobody as far as I know has predicted a big freeze, all that has been said is that a pattern change is under way and there is potential for the UK to get its first cold shot toward the end of January. Of course things may not turn out that way and we may see something more like ECM than JMA but there is simply no way to call it at that moment.

 

What I can tell you for certain is that tomorrows charts 144/168h will look  different to those modelled today - isn't that good reason enough to not discount a cold shot later in the month?

[TSNWK]

Ian, you may of just saved the Prozac.

Ian's post is in my view the only ray of light from this afternoons/evenings runs..

[KyleHenry]

[quote name="emotional rollercoaster" post="2900364"

as I said earlier lows and azores interacting to give a total flat zonal with jet screaming at us with low pressure steam rolling through into ne Europe.

Azores is looking for the GIN

Edited January 19, 2014 by KyleHenry

[Frosty.]

Lookin forward to gibbys wintry update, come on gibby give us some snow or even a couple of wet flakes...:-)

[bradymk]

Yes, the ECM 240 chart may not be as good as previous days outputs however the artic high is STILL present even on a poorer run. People above have posted the 240 chart from european view only, its much better from hemispherical point of view. Anyway, still all too far away to get hung up about. Big warming still present on GFS and as Ian said above, JMA showing that the possible outcomes are still very varied.

[Stuie]

What an interesting chart from the ECM, 2 nasty looking storms mixed in with the PV located in the North Atlantic, whereas the other PV has a laid back all expenses paid holiday look to it.

[karlos1983]

Lookin forward to gibbys wintry update, come on gibby give us some snow or even a couple of wet flakes...:-)

 

If it's not shown, don't bank on it lol

 

Well it's been an emotional rollercoaster on here today, I'm off for a rest lol 

 

Back to see if the 18z GFS sorts the Pacific Ridge out later

[Weather-history]

Better than the GFS 12hrs run, so we should be thankful for small  mercies, this will develop differently from the GFS because the ECM  hasn't broken down  the Pacific Ridge, the ECM and UKMO are similar over the USA, the GFS given NCEP comments re that ridge won't verify.

You say it is better than GFS 12z run, I think it's worse in as much as that at least GFS gives a cold blast of uppers, so at least someone can get something wintry out of it. ECM 12z has the cold uppers mixed out and nothing unless you are on high ground.

[MR EXTREMES]

im sorry but im taking the models at face value and if the jma is even close then we might as well bin the rest. 

its clear to see from the last two days of model outputs were this is all heading.

 

the ecm does have the artic heights but in its excitement to come and help the net weather cold crew ramp its not far enough in truth its made less progress than yesterday and its at 240 again this has been the theme for most of this winter.

 

azores high,

European heights,

extra strong pv,

and super powered jet stream stuck to the north!

 

 but the only blocking going on apart from the useless scandi high is low pressure blocking just about every route to cold.

[ANYWEATHER]

Dare I post any charts this evening?? Think not!!  If nothing else the models are stepping up a gear with a very strong jet stream making a "b" line for the Uk, from the Atlantic .Some cold incursions courtesy of rPM air but fleeting glances for snow mainly for upland areas of the Uk, Looks like the next ten days will once again see more stormy weather developing across the nation.....  

[snow mad]

I hope the ecm is right about the pv draining away as shown, this will be the best thing that has happened this winter for our cold prospects! I'm sure we had a period of waiting last year after the SSW had happened where we were seeing the pv drain away east making us endure a couple of weeks of crxp weather which seemed to go on a bit and people getting impatient then! It seems to me this year because of the stronger vortex we are just a little further down the road this year... but with the forecast strat warmings and on going ones we will have our cold but it's probably going to be the second week of feb leading to a long cold spring 

[Tamara]

I agree with quite a few on here. Tamara I'm afraid we can't all think positive, we've done that since November! The models are absolutely rubbish right now for snow chances. I just can't believe how poor this winter has been! It's quite frankly unbelievable! Can anyone believe how the AO has just gone from mega neutral to mega positive! Typical. I too think that's at least half of fen gone now. We're guaranteed nothing from a warming!! Sad times

Its about being thinking realistically and objectively   If I may say so, since back in December when it was clear that the vortex was going to be stronger than anticipated and redeploy itself back to Greenland and Canada and that opportunities for colder weather were unlikely till the last third of the winter on the basis that a strong and very stable vortex would be hard to break down. That is and has been proven to be the case. I have never bought into any of the fleeting teases up until this time... when the arctic pressure profile is finally starting to change

 

 I think that bluearmy and nick and latterly Ian F have said all there is to say about the here and now and I have said more than enough of late myself anyway to keep repeating myself Some forcing help from the MJO to buttress up the retrogression of the atlantic/Azores High and amplify the pattern in the atlantic sector towards those lovely arctic heights would be very ideal.

 

However in terms of the broad theme of pressure build over the arctic - the theme is entirely consistent once more in the ECM

[Hotspur62]

Apart from JMA not a lot to shout about from a cold/snow perspective for UK for next 10 days but still so much variance on each model run there is still hope. Whilst I feel Zonal is favourite it would not take a lot for JMA to come off as others have said. Tamara has said it all eloquently over last few days and as Ian F has said there is very little confidence post 96-120hrs atm. All good things that come to those that wait!!(There you go I said it without using "that" word)

[nick sussex]

You say it is better than GFS 12z run, I think it's worse in as much as that at least GFS gives a cold blast of uppers, so at least someone can get something wintry out of it. ECM 12z has the cold uppers mixed out and nothing unless you are on high ground.

Yes but at this time if we lose the Arctic high then its hard to see any route to decent cold, a few hours of slush off a modified nw flow is really scant reward for waiting two months for something.

 

The GFS anyway overdoes the cold at that timeframe and that will get shunted north so I'd rather take the chance with at least the Arctic high holding, we don't really have many options, either the high holds or I fear the worst.

 

The next strat warming may well be better at weakening the PV but at this rate we'll be discussing it over the Easter Eggs!

[blizzard81]

Even taking the 12z JMA at face value (T+192) is sufficient demonstration of how uncertain the post-weekend period becomes. Nothing beyond even Friday holds particularly high confidence.

Hi Ian, I would like to thank you for your invaluable contribution to this forum. I am intrigued by your post as it seems to me that there is model consensus for the weather next weekend, ie scandi high waning and easing back east and all eyes turning to the north west. Is this not cut and dried yet?

[legritter]

Model watching is always and as been always highly frustrating and subject to change every day if not twice daily .currently with super computers i would say at about 6 days apart from small details [its these small details that give us our weather ] ,they arent that wrong ,but 8/10 days we enter unknown territory, 10/15 days calculated ,[with many questions more than answers ]so come on gang plenty of winter left and plenty of chances left ,ok the atlantic may come bulldozing in it may then get Frozen in its tracks ,tomorrow is another Dawn ,bring it on .

[IDO]

well done karlos - double points. TSNWK, the arctic high has not gone? the huge bright yellow thing nw of greenland ? as i wondered earlier, the split vortex seems to be encouraging the canadian segment to scarper to our side of the NH. no way of avoiding a strong zonal few days on that one. the medicine should be worth it though in the end. (jma seems to be a day behind ecm with its option but its still feasible)

HiWith the PV on the move eastwards on the ECM, very similar to the GFS except the latter has no strong Arctic Heights, surely the PV will, like the GFS, hit the block to our east (Siberia) and be sent back west. That is what happens on the GFS, so by D15 we have the PV back over Canada/Greenland? We can already see at T240 on the ECM, in response to this movement the Arctic high being pushed towards the west conus:To me the PV is still the main driver and with (ECM) or without ridging (GFS) we will end up no nearer prolonged cold for our region. Strong confidence for none in the next 10 days and IMHO nothing before D16. We await the strat warming and hope it hits the trop quicker than its normal 2 week hiatus. So maybe mid Feb if we have a seven day response. Edited January 19, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

Weatherman said fog and frost early in week, rain midweek and then slowly turning colder. That is a good base to build from I think.

[nick sussex]

Weatherman said fog and frost early in week, rain midweek and then slowly turning colder. That is a good base to build from I think.

As in slowly did they mean next winter!lol The best news all night was Ian's post, we want the chaos in the modelling to continue as long as when the final solution appears its the colder one.