Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[nick sussex]

The NCEP comments re that ridge, note what the GFS does over Alaska, ridge gone replaced by low heights.

 

AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... BUTMODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO WAVER ON EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THEEAST AND THE RENEGADE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST. THE ECENSAND NAEFS MEANS /AIDED BY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ MAINTAINTHE RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST LONGER THAN THE00Z-06Z GEFS MEAN DOES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... AND GIVEN THESTRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND MODEL BIASES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAINABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PAC NW/BC INTO EASTERN AK UNTILTHERE BECOMES A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THIS PERSISTENT/IMPRESSIVERIDGING WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN

 

We are reliant on that ridge holding, if it goes IMO  it will be game over for cold in the next ten days.

Edited January 19, 2014 by nick sussex

[IDO]

Nice ridging at 168, not sure if this will end well tho

 

Please don't mention an ECM amplified ridge anytime after T168 without one of these behind it  

 

Latest Feb mean from CFS: 

[MR EXTREMES]

ECM at day 5

 

Well in an unprecedented turn of events, the GFS op has the most robust high to the north east at day 5.

I suddenly feel dirty 

almost identical to the ukmo so im still inclined to say after some chilly weather at the end of the week a return to more zonal outlook although I will say not above average temp wise.

[Captain Shortwave]

Better than the GFS 12hrs run, so we should be thankful for small  mercies, this will develop differently from the GFS because the ECM  hasn't broken down  the Pacific Ridge, the ECM and UKMO are similar over the USA, the GFS given NCEP comments re that ridge won't verify.

Fair play Nick, but it does feel like we down to one good thing in our favour now as the Scandi high is approaching it's use by date by the looks of it. Any help upstream would be a massive plus, though the ECM looks pretty flat in the Atlantic, though the strength of the blocking over the Arctic should at least squeeze and pressurise the Canadian vortex.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Stuie]

Ohh,... is this the first sign of the warming taking place? Don`t think I have to add an arrow.

[nick sussex]

Even with the ECM holding that ridge the pattern upstream is too flat and the energies phase at T192hrs. Either the MJO actually finally moves and helps to retrogress the Azores high to delay that upstream energy otherwise that nice Arctic high is going to be a waste.

 

You'd be hard pressed to have such a tanking AO and yet still end up with the rubbish being dished out by the ECM, incredible really but its just that sort of winter.

Edited January 19, 2014 by nick sussex

[Eskimo]

aaaaaaand. the ECM flattens it all out at day 9. Just brilliant. 

Edited January 19, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[Captain Shortwave]

JMA does the job

ECM is pretty much flat at day 9. We need something on our side of the pole and act with the Pacific ridge to drive a pattern change.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Joe Levy]

Ohh,... is this the first sign of the warming taking place? Don`t think I have to add an arrow.

I am not sure I fully understand the dynamics of warmings, but the warming we are referring to is a lot higher up in the atmosphere than is being shown in that chart. That is 850hpa, which is the troposphere I think, whereas the warming we refer to is in the stratosphere. The very high temperature anomalies on the chart you have posted are likely to do with the very strong Pacific ridge/Alaskan high which Nick mentioned, as it will be pulling in very warm air on its western flank into the Arctic.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Joe Levy

[snowmadchrisuk]

Arctic High going well South on this run as well , not as bad as it looks 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

as I said earlier lows and azores interacting to give a total flat zonal with jet screaming at us with low pressure steam rolling through into ne Europe,.

[bluearmy]

Ohh,... is this the first sign of the warming taking place? Don`t think I have to add an arrow.

 

 

no stuie, but because the westerlies high up are weaker, the ridge can build an impressive arctic high. its now clear to me that gfs hasnt got a clue re its handling of this ridge and therefore, its fi is even more likely to be rubbish than is usually the case.

 

good continuity from ecm - typically when the charts arent so good for us although northern hills look like doing ok in those lee norwesters.  lest see what happens with the arctic high on this run.

[tight isobar]

Its not only the burgers and steaks that the Americans, want bigger than ours! There shouting loud across the pond, look at how big our polar vortex is .....and how small your umbrellas are.:-/.

[Stuie]

I am not sure I fully understand the dynamics of warmings, but the warming we are referring to is a lot higher up in the atmosphere than is being shown in that chart. That is 850hpa, which is the troposphere I think, whereas the warming we refer to is in the stratosphere. The very high temperature anomalies on the chart you have posted are likely to do with the very strong Pacific ridge/Alaskan high which Nick mentioned, as it will be pulling in very warm air on its western flank into the Arctic.

Thanks for the input Joe. Yes it maybe due to the ridge but that temp doesn`t really have a rating, i.e 20 then black. Interesting.

[Bobby]

ECM +216

 

Dear me, I'm not sure you could have drawn up a worse set of 12z runs if you tried for a cold spell. At least these charts today can't get much worse.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

as I said earlier lows and azores interacting to give a total flat zonal with jet screaming at us with low pressure steam rolling through into ne Europe,.

 

all models are close in showing a zonal onslaught.

gfs

but the best chart is the jma

[TSNWK]

This is a serious question. This evening all 3 major models have continued to back away from the arctic high option a trend which has been in progress since Saturday mornings runs.

Earlier this afternoon there were remarks that some posters were over reacting to one run being flat with no sign of cold, ok I say to the experienced posters who remarked, please try to convince me and others that there is way to decent cold and it's associated risk of snow. I for one can only go with what is offered to me by the models..

[ARNOTT ad]

I agree with quite a few on here. Tamara I'm afraid we can't all think positive, we've done that since November! The models are absolutely rubbish right now for snow chances. I just can't believe how poor this winter has been! It's quite frankly unbelievable! Can anyone believe how the AO has just gone from mega neutral to mega positive! Typical. I too think that's at least half of fen gone now. We're guaranteed nothing from a warming!! Sad times

[Liam J]

Very flat & mobile output from the ECM with the jet stream powering back up, storm ravaged UK round two looking very likely. Just no end in sight this winter! Further misery and flooding for many coupled with severe gales at times.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Liam J

[karlos1983]

is the PV finally going to bog off

 

Edited January 19, 2014 by karlos1983

[Stuie]

no stuie, but because the westerlies high up are weaker, the ridge can build an impressive arctic high. its now clear to me that gfs hasnt got a clue re its handling of this ridge and therefore, its fi is even more likely to be rubbish than is usually the case.

 

good continuity from ecm - typically when the charts arent so good for us although northern hills look like doing ok in those lee norwesters.  lest see what happens with the arctic high on this run.

Agreed, the ECM is good at itself. Thanks for info mate regarding high westerlies.

[Troubleatmill]

Arctic High going well South on this run as well , not as bad as it looks 

 

No it could be worse buddy, its just that limpet like pv over Quebec, its just gonna keep firing up the jet and flattening it all, major amplification in the northern pacific cancelled out by that PV monster, really starting to hate it with a passion

[Long haul to mild]

ECM 240 : Not the first chart today that suggests that the PV may be relocating East. Could this be the break we need, especially if it means that it has moved from Greenland?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011912/ECM1-240.GIF?19-0

[bluearmy]

well done karlos - double points.  TSNWK, the arctic high has not gone?  the huge bright yellow thing nw of greenland ?  as i wondered earlier, the split vortex seems to be encouraging the canadian segment to scarper to our side of the NH.  no way of avoiding a strong zonal few days on that one. the medicine should be worth it though in the end.  (jma seems to be a day behind ecm with its option but its still feasible)

Edited January 19, 2014 by bluearmy

[Richie V]

Nick f is on the money folks, that ridge dissapeares, cold will be incredibly hard to find. Sorry but true.

I fear the traditional calming of the NA over feb may be hard to find also.