Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Even I, as a total newbie and nowhere near knowledgeable enough as yet to post my views on the models, know that most if not all of the most experienced posters here say that the GFS is too progressive in bringing zonality in around +240 hours.

 

Whether that's true or not it's not just the GFS, the other models are singing from the same hymn sheet, westerlies in charge, posted some of the ensemble means earlier here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79043-model-output-discussion-10th-jan-onwards/page-121#entry2900001

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

A further period of zonality looks inevitable now, although that has been the case for a number of days in truth . It looks like the short window on Friday is closing but looking at the charts around day 5 I'd wait until the morning. Some over reactions in the posts above although I can understand it.

We're now looking out to early Feb but it doesn't mean winter is over. The background is resolutely poor but it can still change.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

bloody awful

 

At 240 hours it is highly likely the chart would be absolutely awful and it would be awfully lucky if it actually verified as shown, same odds as getting six out of six on the lottery, I reckon. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Rather grim charts from the GFS and UKMO 12z, UKMO backed off that cold push from the east as thought.

 

GFS looks a wee bit zonal at +240

 

Posted Image

PV to our NW + strong Azores high = bad for cold.

lets just say a very strong azores high absolutely dreadful model runs the inconsistency is also absolutely awful id forget the ecm and gfs and gem jma the best model by far is the mighty ukmo and this model is showing more rubbish weather wind rain settled for awhile then feb being most likely a washout.

 

the jet stream shows that zonal is a feature the arctic heights is becoming a distant memory already aswell apart from the ecm which so far out looks unlikely

Posted Image

lots of energy coming of the very powerful pv and jet stream pushing everything straight at the uk with the azores ridge pushing north east allow low pressure to dominate and remove the block to our east.

Posted Image

gfs no arctic heights dreadful powerful pv plus jet streak

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by phil nw.
removed ot comments.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted · Hidden by chrisbell-nottheweatherman, January 19, 2014 - Will move this to P.M.
Hidden by chrisbell-nottheweatherman, January 19, 2014 - Will move this to P.M.

I'm wondering if there is much point in all the wealth of information and explanation being given on these pages from various members, not least the input of behind the scenes thoughts relayed from Exeter about the complexities that are going on in the pattern, when I read some of the knee jerk responses to every operational output, yet again in evidence, on this page....

 

Those of us from the regional thread who might not be able to follow the details but know an objective post when they see one do appreciate it.

Link to comment
Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

To those who say that Winter is over (no names mentioned) which is a silly thing to say itself given that we're only half way through and that we can still get cold weather in March and April, I present this chart to you - the SSW is still in the output and is gradually getting closer as the GFS maintains it. If it continues to do so, then I'm sitting firmly in the camp who think that February, traditionally one of the coldest months anyway, has the most potential.

Posted Image

 

 

ok I take a three day net weather ban if feb is cold and thats even if we see two weeks of something cold I bet bottom dollar a net weather ban nothing favours the uk getting cold arctic heights are all but gone and the projected warming in the strat has not even happened and even if it does with lag time it will be march.

Edited by chionomaniac
just to correct the format, ec.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The arctic high modelled completely differently beteen ukmo and gfs. Wondering where the jet goes on ukmo at day 7? As usual, some knee jerk postings in reaction to a couple of op runs (I guess the previous 2500 runs don't help!)

 

I don't think it's necessarily a knee jerk reaction Nick. The GEFS haven't been interested in bringing cold to the UK for at least the last 2 days....I pointed this out on Friday when they were keen to reintroduce the Atlantic around days 10-12. In all honesty my winter forecast was a bust and I think those forecasts advocating cold in the last third may well be on shaky ground too. Until that Canadian/Greenland vortex disperses, getting any form of cold into the UK is going to be a tall order.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

I'm wondering if there is much point in all the wealth of information and explanation being given on these pages from various members, not least the input of behind the scenes thoughts relayed from Exeter about the complexities that are going on in the pattern, when I read some of the knee jerk responses to every operational output, yet again in evidence, on this page....

Hello. Fair enough, but please what is there to like in the 12z UKMO and GFS, UKMO has trended east this afternoon and GFS has maintained it's progressive theme. This mornings runs were poor with the exception of the carrot dangled by UKMO and since Saturday morning there has been a definite trend away from the arctic high having an influence for the UK Edited by TSNWK
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Location: Surrey

The GFS 12z is horrible end to end. 

 

No prolonged cold, no HLB, no Arctic high, etc

 

By T192 the PV has moved to Greenland: Posted Imagegfsnh-0-192 (1).png

 

It then takes a week to move east just north of the UK, by T300: Posted Imagegfsnh-0-300 (2).png

 

It then hits the Siberian high and by the end of the run its back where it started: Posted Imagegfsnh-0-384 (4).png

 

Not conducive of a cold spell but certainly transient wintry stuff for hills and up north. 

 

Not aimed at this one post but to most of those that have appeared in the last 10 minutes or so. As someone who is still learning I wonder how so many can be so sure the GFS has now predicted our weather for the next 15 days correctly. With this model due to be replaced shortly I would think caution is required. Am I missing something here, is the replacement model an upgrade of an already effective computer model, or a replacement for one that now struggles, the reasons for which are beyond my understanding. I think it is the latter.

Edited by Gmax
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I couldn't agree more! It's frustrating that so many people have not paid attention to the trends being shown in the NH pattern, such as the persistent evidence of stratospheric warming shown in pretty much every op for days now! Don't worry, some of us are still paying attention Posted Image

 

Hi

 

I am not sure there is a SSW being modelled. GFS in FI has been showing signs way out that there is a chance of one, but it now appears to be just another warming (wave 1) and with a displacement, if it happens, we are in the lap of the weather god as to whether we are on the right side of the block.

 

A recent tweet: 

 

  _chrisfawkes

.@JJHutch82 I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February

19/01/2014 16:11

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

 

Hi

 

I am not sure there is a SSW being modelled. GFS in FI has been showing signs way out that there is a chance of one, but it now appears to be just another warming (wave 1) and with a displacement, if it happens, we are in the lap of the weather god as to whether we are on the right side of the block.

 

A recent tweet: 

 

  _chrisfawkes

.@JJHutch82 I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February

19/01/2014 16:11

 

Well even if it isn't sudden, it is still a warming and it is one of many smaller warmings that have been eroding and continue to erode the vortex. It may be that this warming is the final straw. Tamara had a great post explaining it and I am not really capable of explaining it as clearly as her! 

EDIT bluearmy has expressed what I am trying to say a little more clearly in the post above!

Edited by Joe Levy
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited) · Hidden by Bobby, January 19, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Bobby, January 19, 2014 - No reason given

Nobody is taking this GFS 12z as gospel in deep FI like at +240, or any operational run, they certainly shouldn't be anyway! The real chart will amost certainly look quite different. Following each run and basing your predictions on that is hopeless. But the ensemble means and anomalies from all models out to +240 and beyond indeed do show a generally zonal/westerly cyclonic flow. That's what they show and it's good best guess. They are more likely to be right than any individual run, be it showing cold and blizzards or raging mild zonality. Use the ensemble means and anomalies as johnholmes keeps saying over and over, is good advice.

Edited by Bobby
Link to comment
Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Well even if it isn't sudden, it is still a warming and it is one of many smaller warmings that have been eroding and continue to erode the vortex. It may be that this warming is the final straw. Tamara had a great post explaining it and I am not really capable of explaining it as clearly as her! 

EDIT bluearmy has expressed what I am trying to say a little more clearly in the post above!

 

And if by magic:

 

  chionomaniac

Remember that important strat date - 5th Feb - the latest GFS run shows a hair's breath away from a SSW at that time. http://t.co/KUbbeo7YuK

19/01/2014 17:13

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

I'm wondering if there is much point in all the wealth of information and explanation being given on these pages from various members, not least the input of behind the scenes thoughts relayed from Exeter about the complexities that are going on in the pattern, when I read some of the knee jerk responses to every operational output, yet again in evidence, on this page....

 

 

Tbh, the GFS op doesn't surprise me at all! the ensembles, have not given a nod towards any cold signal. there are other factors at play too, the ec32. It all adds up, and of course some can go off the rails when they see an op such as todays, but they are merely stating their frustration. Of course, variations, tweaks will affect the models somewhat this week, but the favoured route back to some form of zonality has been present for days now.

Edited by phil nw.
removed ot comments
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

 my point is that the strongest part of the vortex has been on the Canadian side of the polar fields in close and around Greenland this is part of the reason why the weather here has been awful.

 

now the arctic heights are getting weaker with each run the gem has about the best strength and most robust heights into the arctic,

ok so vortex splits strongest part in around Canada and western Greenland, jet firing at the uk and pushing depressions north east,

 

and as well our party pooper azores heights ridge in to the southern half of the uk pushing deep and developing low pressure systems north east this also adding pressure on the scandi heights.

 

there for these deep lows will sooner or later push into northern Scandinavia once this happens then there really is no way back as we seen so far this winter.

 

ok so some of the favoured spots will get a little wintry weather Friday for a day or so.

if it pans out as projected.

 

ok nao positive ao gone from deep neg to positive,

add the ever boring mjo stuck at phase 6 then there is no surprise to see the dreadful model outputs.

 

even the ecm has been backing away with each run.

 

all model jet stream projections show a strong streak.

 

and pressure is not low enough into Europe either theres so many factors against feb being wintry this whole winter has been a fail but does not come as a surprise because the teleconnections were against us from the very start.

 

but there is something wintry on my tv its called ski sunday.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Just off out to buy a new sleigh for me reindeerPosted Image

 

Looks like friday / saturday could be snowyPosted Image

Love your enthusiasm but can you show me the model that is showing snow on Friday / Saturday? It was a slim chance from the ukm 00z and this has disappeared on the 12z
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Love your enthusiasm but can you show me the model that is showing snow on Friday / Saturday? It was a slim chance from the ukm 00z and this has disappeared on the 12z

Oh i reckon Frosty can find one, go on frosty dig one out mate 

 

here's my effort

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

GEM at T180: post-14819-0-86558900-1390152196_thumb.p T210: post-14819-0-52884400-1390152420_thumb.p T240: post-14819-0-64966600-1390152595_thumb.p

Towards GFS solution though not as progressive. I am expecting the GFS 12z to be in the milder ens cluster and too quick with the energy from the PV.

The GEFS mean: post-14819-0-91134700-1390152268_thumb.p

Still not keen on a sustainable Arctic high (about 33% have an Arctic high by T216). The op is in the main synoptic cluster along with the control> T216: post-14819-0-02828100-1390152956_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

hmm.big backtrack from the ukmo from this morning and inline with the gffs now

can we be certain of any outcome beyond 4 days though with so much flip-flopping all the time from the models

 

having said that the amount of hate the gfs gets from some posters,I think it has actually performed pretty well this winter with the ECM in particular very inconsistent in it's runs.

 

oh well roll on the ECM later,probably  be showing a 1987 setup to confuse things even more!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...