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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

further to the post earlier where it was illustrated how well ecm op had done at day 5, i thought i'd look at how it saw the next few days from 10 days away re the upper pattern

 

here is tonight onwards (the operational on the right of the pair just so you can see how far from the mean it was at the time of the run).  the 10 day charts on the left and the actual charts that will verify on the right.

 

post-6981-0-34463700-1390088147_thumb.gi                         post-6981-0-54844100-1390088155_thumb.gi

 

post-6981-0-05654900-1390088722_thumb.gi                            post-6981-0-90514100-1390088729_thumb.gi

 

post-6981-0-61792900-1390088623_thumb.gi                            post-6981-0-05836000-1390088644_thumb.gi

 

post-6981-0-30742100-1390088848_thumb.gi                            post-6981-0-41162800-1390088869_thumb.gi

 

not bad although a bit progressive with the azores ridge for tuesday.

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Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk

Overall the models look in good agreement for the overall NH pattern, Arctic high, high pressure to the east , troughing near the UK which will hit a brick wall and run out of steam as it hits mainland Europe.

 

The uncertainty upstream re amplification is the key issue, there is one difference here though between the current yes no easterly of recent weeks and that's the Arctic high will act as a reinforcements to high pressure to the east, its just now a case of the final piece of the puzzle.

 

I think if the Azores high can retrogress and buy enough time then even with another bomb thrown east by the PV that we should be able to repel that attack, and the energy will head se rather than east.

 

So that really is the decider here,will this MJO signal actually deliver?

 

Earlier theres still enough margin for error in the set up that shortwaves breaking se may well still deliver something wintry on their eastern flank.

Hi Nick how's the thumb? rather a large post for some one who's just severed his thumb! Lol!! (No offence ment!)

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

General Synopsis:

 

The early incarnation of the Arctic High in the nearer timespan only serves to help transfer seriously sub 512 dam low heights over to our old friend the vortex appendage over Canada (all the way across from Siberia). This takes us out to 168hrs where things start to swing big time more in our favour. Orient to Occidental transfer looks to halt at this stage and Meridional N-S flow starts to develop as the Arctic High orientates to a more favourable position for us spanning midway between Svalbard and Greenland but with ellipsoid aligned with our favoured meridion (straight from the North!). Aided by mid-Atlantic ridging almost to Greenland, deeper upper troughing in NW Europe and a triumvirate of Northern Siberian high pressure cells, things are starting to look a little interesting for end Jan / early Feb. (concurring with other posters' thoughts :)

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

The damn Azores High needs to disappear or retrogress northwards if there's any hope for cold building over the UK! Absolutely shocking 144 charts Posted Image

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The damn Azores High needs to disappear or retrogress northwards if there's any hope for cold building over the UK! Absolutely shocking 144 charts Posted Image

 

From which Model?

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

heres the ecm ensembles for london 12z

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

wind

 

Posted Image

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html?eps=london

 

the link above explains these

 

the blue run is gfs Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

All the models show a stubborn SW' at 144 hrs maybe less so from the ECM.

So it's a good job that we don't only have the ukmo model to look at then! How stubborn does a sou'wester have to be to be called stubborn. This one doesn't look very stubborn to me!
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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

Yes you are about right, coldest uppers was probably around Kent. -18 or -19

 Posted Image

Yes, in Westerham Kent we had about 48 hours of persistent heavy powder snow (North Kent Streamer) which resulted in about 18 inches of level snow, max daytime temps -5c min nightime temps -10c

It was the best spell of wintry weather I've ever experienced in my 58 years! Although, unlike 1963 it didn't last very long only about 3 or 4 days!

But it was spectacular!

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Massive cold building up in Scandinavia. Currently -35c in levi finland

Edit -37c

Edited by john mac
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just a quick question!!is there a chance of snow with front coming in at 72 hours on the ecmwf and ukmo?pretty slack flow and cold 850s!!

 

peak district north on hills - yes shaky.  shame we didnt have embedded cold prior to these slow moving occlusions. would have been fun.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

peak district north on hills - yes shaky. shame we didnt have embedded cold prior to these slow moving occlusions. would have been fun.

damn!!thats a shame!!thanks for the reply mate!!
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Anyone know where I can find the ecmwf precipitation charts for the uk?

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Anyone know where I can find the ecmwf precipitation charts for the uk?

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec probably best you can find on web for precip data. http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/long.html this is a good site too, which does up to date 10 day forecasts based on very latest ECM run data. Only basic but ECMWF don't give much away free! Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Morning allAwsome UKMO off the bat this morningRemember fri / Sat I said watch how the potential was there for the low to be less progressive against the blockAt day 6 today the atlantic front is hitting a brick wall & turning to snow in the E / NE./ SEBefore anyone protests & says its to warm look at the isolines bend into europe over the SE corner with -10c air just arriving into kent** IF it went like this lots of frontal snow rather like Feb 96 however you would need the front to stall out ideally...,UKMO is the first run to show the deep euro cold hitting the UK and appears to be like many of the colder solutions that was on last nights debilt T2m temps at day 6The GFS of course very progressive and not interestedS

blimey what a brilliant ukmo!!cold air gets gets into england at least on those charts!!lets see what the ecmwf brings!!I did say this easterly was not dead and buried yet!!and I still think the 60 to 72 hour mark looks interesting across england!!cold air in place already and a front bumping into it from the west!!it could still turn to snow I think?
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Briefly snowy spell on the UKMO as Steve has already mentioned, before the Atlantic powers up and brings in a SWly air flow again, ECM heading the same way but with less cold uppers. Still looking quite stormy for a time as well. 

 

post-9615-0-79406300-1390112650_thumb.gi post-9615-0-67071400-1390112680_thumb.gipost-9615-0-36225800-1390112776_thumb.gi

 

Strong westerly flow by 144hrs on the ECM brining colder uppers across the Atlantic. 

post-9615-0-14708900-1390113271_thumb.gi post-9615-0-36674000-1390113415_thumb.gi

 

Storm winding up @ 168, the GFS has had this idea on quite a few runs now. 

post-9615-0-24193500-1390113608_thumb.gi post-9615-0-89346300-1390113809_thumb.gi

 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham

This fax posted yesterday, any potential for the Azores high to form some link with the (wat was ) scandi high ??

 

 

post-13593-0-62001500-1390113822_thumb.g

Edited by Biggin
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

ECM is making less of the pressure rise over the pole. It's still ok but not as strong as last nights run. UKMO is interesting and GFS continues with a west to east flow. Not much consistency between them this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Briefly snowy spell on the UKMO as Steve has already mentioned, before the Atlantic powers up and brings in a SWly air flow again, ECM heading the same way but with less cold uppers. Still looking quite stormy for a time as well. 

 

Posted ImageUW144-21.gif Posted ImageECM1-120.gifPosted ImageECM0-120t.gif

 

Strong westerly flow by 144hrs on the ECM brining colder uppers across the Atlantic. 

Posted ImageECM1-144 (1).gif Posted ImageECM0-144.gif

 

Storm winding up @ 168, the GFS has had this idea on quite a few runs now. 

Posted ImageECM1-168.gif Posted ImageECM1-192 (1).gif

Thought that the storms were off now? the Jet playing one more fling then..

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Thought that the storms were off now? the Jet playing one more fling then..

Not looking at the latest models, sharp temperature gradients over the N Atlantic fuelling strong depressions meaning further very unsettled weather with flooding issues & potential disruption due to wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Well no doubt about it, ECM has really backed away from polar heights coming down to give us some decent cold..

In a nutshell it shows the Azores high ridging over us 2nd part of the week and throughout next weekend, we then get a 1 day northerly and the final frames shows the Azores high returning.. Poor run simple as that.

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