Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Summer Sun]

Colder air becoming more widespread at t216 certainly cold enough for some snow just about anywhere

 

 

Promising signs for coldies it just needs to get down into a reliable time frame now

Edited January 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[IDO]

Finally the curtain looks like closing on the will he or wont he ECM non-easterly at the end of next week; he won't.

 

ECM moving towards GFS at T144: 

 

That is with regard to the cut off low to the S/SE and the AH ridging NE into the SW.

 

At T168 GFS:   ECM: 

 

Timing issues but another blast of PV coming from the NW and the upper trough on both looks to be towards the east of the UK. ECM stronger with the heights to the NE at this time, but any cold not in our backyard yet: 

 

More amplified NH profile at T192 for ECM:    GFS: 

 

We know what ECM is like in FI with amplification so we wait and see on that.

 

The amplification works its charm at T216 on the ECM:    

 

 

 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still no signs of any significant cold and if anything, it looks we are more likely too see a mild SW'ly(as the 18Z run hinted at last night) at least for a brief time which could bring widespread double figures across the board! 

 

It looks too me the PV is strengthening also and this in turn is strengthening the jet stream in the Atlantic so theres the potential for a December like pattern to occur again. And it is most definately fair to say this is more likely than any easterly, which lets be honest has been non existing and the models have barely hinted at an easterly occuring.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECH1-216.GIF?18-0

Awsome Chart

 

-6 widespread & snow.

 

Stella charts now getting close.

 

S

 

someone's wrong!!!!

[johnholmes]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECH1-216.GIF?18-0

Awsome Chart

 

-6 widespread & snow.

 

Stella charts now getting close.

 

S

 

 

come on Steve, be realistic, getting close at 216h??

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Brutal cold over central Europe on the ECM tonight.

[bluearmy]

Not sure if that cold pool in eastern euope is good or bad as the run progresses. Maybe if it hangs round we can invite it here once the trough has sunk far enough south!

[That ECM]

come on Steve, be realistic, getting close at 216h??

Think he missed the r,

[johnholmes]

Still no signs of any significant cold and if anything, it looks we are more likely too see a mild SW'ly(as the 18Z run hinted at last night) at least for a brief time which could bring widespread double figures across the board! 

 

It looks too me the PV is strengthening also and this in turn is strengthening the jet stream in the Atlantic so theres the potential for a December like pattern to occur again. And it is most definately fair to say this is more likely than any easterly, which lets be honest has been non existing and the models have barely hinted at an easterly occuring.

 

 

I give up, not just this post, one saying 'stella chart getting close, another mild SW'ly showing.

Is it any wonder that new folk and those not used to deciphering just what any model is ACTUALLY showing get confused.

 

Please new folk, if you have some understanding of what GFS is showing go to the charts and look for yourself, yes I know it is just one part of the output and the ensembles may show something different. If you are still unsure then ask on the forum or if you want a totally unbiased view on any model then please pm me rather than cluttering up this thread.

[Phantom2]

some very conflicting posts on here this evening for us newbies ..!!

[bryan629]

12z output for comparison...at t+120

 

gfs ukmo   ecm

 

 

 

quite a bit of differences, specially depth and positioning of lows across the atlantic.

 

12z output for comparison ...at t+ 144

 

gfs   ukmo ecm

 

 

 

12z output for comparison at t+168

 

gfs   ecm

 

 

 

no clear picture TBH... but it looks sadly to me that there is far too much pv over canada/greenland being ejected into the atlantic , increased temperature gradients can only mean one thing and its not words i want to use... !!

i wish the pv would bloody well bugger of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SMU]

come on Steve, be realistic, getting close at 216h??

Forgot the R 

 

& the 240 winds up another consistent run from the ECM

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECH1-240.GIF?18-0

 

S

Edited January 18, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Summer Sun]

Becoming a lot colder at t240 cold enough again for snow anywhere, -8 850's just clipping part of the east coast, along with this an High arctic developing if I'm looking at it correctly

 

 

Lots of cold air to tap into if an easterly or south easterly developed, again these charts need to be appearing at t120 and lower before confidence can grow significantly, its not the first time this winter these charts appeared at t240 then vanished the next day

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Vertical Limit]

at 216 we have, an artic high, Scandi high, heights in the Atlantic and I think -8 850's over parts of UK! Canadian vortex still looks evil though.

Sorry, can't post charts.

[festivalking]

Ah bless. Why do these charts always seem to be at 240hr this winter?

 

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7437/ECM1-240_qhk8.GIF

[Tamara]

Still no signs of any significant cold and if anything, it looks we are more likely too see a mild SW'ly(as the 18Z run hinted at last night) at least for a brief time which could bring widespread double figures across the board! 

 

It looks too me the PV is strengthening also and this in turn is strengthening the jet stream in the Atlantic so theres the potential for a December like pattern to occur again. And it is most definately fair to say this is more likely than any easterly, which lets be honest has been non existing and the models have barely hinted at an easterly occuring.

 Why do we keep seeing consecutive outputs then with an Arctic High if the PV is strengthening?  We also see amplification programmed in the atlantic and a Scandinavian High that is sitting there waiting for that amplification on the basis that it can link up with the height rises to the north

 

The PV strengthened considerably in the early part of the winter, It is doing the opposite now and whilst we wait to see if the UK can benefit directly from cold potential I think it is best for us to represent what is happening in the Northern Hemisphere correctly

 

The ECM wants once more to say YES !! One very split polar vortex, a large arctic High and a -AO signature

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Vertical Limit]

Becoming a lot colder at t240 cold enough again for snow anywhere, -8 850's just clipping part of the east coast

 

 

Lots of cold air to tap into if an easterly or south easterly developed

 

SS, you have given me hope again. ECM looking encouraging.

[bluearmy]

Pretty good continuity from ECM through to day 10. The period of uncertainty between the disrupting trough at day 4 and the appearance of the big Atlantic depression at day 8, beginning to firm up as the Azores pushed ne at day 6. That scandi high seeming very resilient and settling around se Finland. Want to see better ens support later for the arctic high as per yesterday's runs.

And if we do get the arctic high joining forces with the scandi ridge, I won't mind th Canadian vortex spewing depressions into the Atlantic ( though most energy will head ne than se) as we would need some moisture headed our way to provide the obvious and undercutting to advect the coldest uppers as far as the UK.

Edited January 18, 2014 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

ECM looks great, however lets see if we get any positives from the METO or Ian F as to weather this ECM May verify, +216 isn't way in FI so that's good, but not without back up from them.

As for people still chasing the Easterlies next week, that ship sailed a few days ago, next weekend is where the next interest lies.

[TEITS]

some very conflicting posts on here this evening for us newbies ..!!

I can simplify it to help newcomers.

 

A pattern change is going to occur and we are talking about charts around the end of the month. The chance of a colder pattern developing is very good as increasing heights to our N appear to force LP S of the UK.

 

So anyone saying no signs of any cold spell are wrong. However that does not guarantee we're going to be hit by a big freeze. We are going to see a pattern change and this is our best chance of winter arriving in the UK.

 

Looking at the 12Z GEFS ensembles this is the fifth run on the trot to show the SLP at 1030mb for Iceland. This might be higher than the mean but just watch that mean increase over the next 24/48hrs.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140118/12/prmslReyjavic.png

Edited January 18, 2014 by TEITS

[Troubleatmill]

That scandi high is acting like a bullied kid at school waiting for his big brother out of 6th form to turn up!

[AWD]

Being picky and not that it matters at 200+ hrs out but the pattern seems to be nudging east too me, with the UK already on the western extent of the cold evolution with days and days to go yet.

Like I said, not that it matters too much at this stage, but a push or two westwards of the longwave pattern currently modelled in FI would allow us some much needed "breathing space" to play with.

[SMU]

Still no signs of any significant cold and if anything, it looks we are more likely too see a mild SW'ly(as the 18Z run hinted at last night) at least for a brief time which could bring widespread double figures across the board! 

 

It looks too me the PV is strengthening also and this in turn is strengthening the jet stream in the Atlantic so theres the potential for a December like pattern to occur again. And it is most definately fair to say this is more likely than any easterly, which lets be honest has been non existing and the models have barely hinted at an easterly occuring.

 

This whole statement is factually wrong based on tonights model output.

 

You cannot have a strengthening polar vortex & a tanking AO at the same time.

 

THe heights over the pole have been modelled to go through a very abrupt change for the last 3 days,- Moving from low heights & low pressure to high pressure- some 1050MB in the GFS & ECM, & heights around 548 DAM.

 

What you are seeing is energy phasing in the atlantic ( STJ & the PFJ) creating a deep storm- however it cannot move EAST like normal because th overwhelming surge of forcing from the pole is pushing is SSE. Also because there is higher pressure to the EAST its getting forced under the block at an acute angle-

 

Hence the stella charts.

 

I would highlight this 

ALL of the UKs best deepest cold spells have come from the arctic High & subsequent atlantic ridging.

 

The current outputs are starting to show these types of building blocks in place,& as a result the stella charts are showing up at day 9 now.

Of course things can go wrong which has sadly been the luck of winter thus far, however also thus far we haven't been blessed with a 1050 MB Arctic high..

 

So, as it stands we are again well in the mix for cold at day 9. as well as some surface cold in the short to medium term. There will be a day or 2 of milder air as the atlantic sweeps across but as the ECM shows that's quickly replaced......

S 

[SMU]

Also some people are confusing the H5 anomalies with the surface feature.

 

The person that posted the 5 day ECM for today & from 5 days ago shows the ECM has nailed the whole pattern, the issue being if your living in the UK then the models error at day 5 can mean a swing of 10 maybe even 15 degrees for us.

 

However it nailed the height anomalies in the right place.

 

If you look at 168/192 if its modelling those height anomalies correctly again then the odds are FAVOURING a cold NW Europe as opposed to an atlantic driven pattern due to the teleconnections that support the anomalies.

 

Our best chance of cold this season & certainly better than the beat up coke can scandi high from this past few days.

 

S

 

Just to show whos boss look at the low disappear in 48 hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-192.GIF?18-0 955 LOW

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-216.GIF?18-0 990 LOW

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-240.GIF?18-0 1010 LOW over the continent.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Stuie]

Also some people are confusing the H5 anomalies with the surface feature.

 

The person that posted the 5 day ECM for today & from 5 days ago shows the ECM has nailed the whole pattern, the issue being if your living in the UK then the models error at day 5 can mean a swing of 10 maybe even 15 degrees for us.

 

However it nailed the height anomalies in the right place.

 

If you look at 168/192 if its modelling those height anomalies correctly again then the odds are FAVOURING a cold NW Europe as opposed to an atlantic driven pattern due to the teleconnections that support the anomalies.

 

Our best chance of cold this season & certainly better than the beat up coke can scandi high from this past few days.

 

S

 

Just to show whos boss look at the low disappear in 48 hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-192.GIF?18-0 955 LOW

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-216.GIF?18-0 990 LOW

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-240.GIF?18-0 1010 LOW over the continent.

That was me Steve..

[Man With Beard]

So the big idea is that, after T240, the -24/-28C uppers somehow get swept straight through Scandi towards the UK, whilst any depressions coming out of Canada go underneath a strengthening High around Iceland, turning to hideous amounts of snow as they hit the super-cold air over the UK? Easy peasy? 

 

 

What odds would you give me, 10-1?

Edited January 18, 2014 by rjbw