Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[SMU]

GFS @ 120 sending deeper cold just to the east over Debilt etc....

 

 

The 156-174 timeframe continues to catch my attention-  the Atlantic low diving south could be corrected West ( still at the same angle) so it straddles cold air over the UK.

 

 

Keep an eye on it.

 

S

[stewfox]

GFS @ 120 sending deeper cold just to the east over Debilt etc....

 

 

The 156-174 timeframe continues to catch my attention-  the Atlantic low diving south could be corrected West ( still at the same angle) so it straddles cold air over the UK.

 

 

Keep an eye on it.

 

 

Will do, lots of interesting model watching coming up over the next week.

Edited January 18, 2014 by stewfox

[Frosty.]

 

 

Keep an eye on it.

 

S

I will keep 2 eyes on it

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

gfs6z is worryingly wet

[Polar Maritime]

gfs6z is worryingly wet

 

It is, but it's from this point where the interest starts "25th".

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[DAVID SNOW]

GFS @ 120 sending deeper cold just to the east over Debilt etc....

 

 

The 156-174 timeframe continues to catch my attention-  the Atlantic low diving south could be corrected West ( still at the same angle) so it straddles cold air over the UK.

 

 

Keep an eye on it.

 

S

Steve GFS@120 shows 850s@ -2

surface temp just above freezing

dewpoint just above freezing, just cold rain I guess, any chance of a little wet snow in the heavier bursts?

[Nick F]

Yep, still a small window for a weak NE flow late Thurs/early Fri on 06z GFS, as that shallow low drops SE into the near continent. Would bring a cold day across the east, but not cold enough for snow, more grey and drizzly. 00z ECM has the low moving SE and weak NE flow too around then.

 

00z UKMO holds a col / slack pressure over the UK end of the week perhaps into w/e, but GFS and EC bring in next Atlantic trough SE with a return to Atlantic W or NW flow - but for how long? Because there are signs on both of an amplified flow building Atlantic ridge north, and as Ed said earlier - add an arctic high trying to push south and the Scandi high trying to retrograde - things *may* turn interesting last few days of the month. Really need to see the flow upstream play ball though ...

Edited January 18, 2014 by Nick F

[Cloud 10]

Is that a Ramp SS......... :-),

Anyone who feared winter wasn't coming, well don't worry, I presume the "polar" opposite of the latest Express headlines will now soon be upon us, no pun intended.....

 

I'm more interested in the free Wonka bar.

 

 

Some cold zoniality showing up again on the medium range GFS,with some eye candy to 

come in the latter stages of the run.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Much better Heights over Green/Iceland on the 6z. Pushing much colder air South over Europe into Russia.. Before it all goes a little awol as expected. It's really not worth looking at detail past D7/8 during these complicated times, Models really are struggling to latch on to the eventual outcome, as TEITS said early'er.

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[karlos1983]

I'm more interested in the free Wonka bar.

Some cold zoniality showing up again on the medium range GFS,with some eye candy to

come in the latter stages of the run.

gfsnh-0-228.png

Taken the words out of my mouth, last few frames will be nice viewing I think on the 06z

Shows what I know lol horrid end to the run

Edited January 18, 2014 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run shows occasional cold incursions with snow at times, especially further north, next saturday is a good example with widespread sub -5 T850 hPa covering the uk, further on there are more cold shots with a risk of snow as the jet digs further south. It looks like a colder version of the december pattern with lots more heavy rain and gales, not as stormy and with rather colder spells bringing bursts of wintry conditions.

[Stuie]

Plenty of cold in Europe via the ECM@192. What a difference a few weeks makes. Pretty much split PV with zonality thrown in the bin. You could say a "kidney punch" if we do not a cold feed at the end of the month.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

gfs6z is poor for coldies and like GEM and the ecm mean shows what can happen,

Very finely balanced meto update as always,will be more revealing.

[itsnowjoke]

As we did in Dec 2010..... I have high hopes of a pattern change soon with winter finally showing it's teeth.

You have high hopes for everything Frosty lol.

But hope the pattern is changing as we are stuck in a bit of a rut.

[Purga]

The stand off with the Scandi block continues but we are too far west to benefit so unsettled and cool

 

 

 

Most of the 06z showing cool zonality in the higher resolution range

and a brief colder phase in FI

 

before things dry out and warm up at the end

 

Let's hope the promise shown in the distant anomaly charts delivers what people want?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With that cold zonality, only places like the Derbyshire peaks and the pennines will benefit. All I get from them setups is plain old rain. 2011-12 comes to mind.

[Cloud 10]

Taken the words out of my mouth, last few frames will be nice viewing I think on the 06z

Shows what I know lol horrid end to the run

 

Still a good run higher up though. 

 

[bluearmy]

gfs6z is poor for coldies and like GEM and the ecm mean shows what can happen,Very finely balanced meto update as always,will be more revealing.

The ECM mean is no doubt skewed by a wide variation in solutions. What disappointed me this morning was that, contrary to usual patterns, the day 9 ens is less clear than yesterday's day 10 output. perhaps the obvious variability in clustered ens runs should be weighed heavily when assessing the ens mean/anomolys as I did earlier but I was hoping for some light in the darkness re the arctic ridge. Of course the 06z illustrates what happens if we get no big week 2 Alaskan ridge to bolster the arctic high it we still manage a toppler!

[Frosty.]

You have high hopes for everything Frosty lol.

 

No I don't actually, but I try and keep a positive approach on here as I hate reading depressingly miserable negative posts. 

.

[Nick F]

Trend continues in low res for the segment of the PV across E Canada to lift northeast, which will help amplify the flow downstream across the Atlantic with WAA propagating upwards to create height rises to our N and NW. However, as it doesn't appear in the 8-10day H500 anomalies yet, can't really justify the trend becoming a potential wave breaker / pattern changer yet. Good to see the trend continue though, even on the GFS which has been bullish to keep the Atlantic upper flow flat throughout until recently.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Nick F

[Tim Bland]

Still a good run higher up though. 

 

gfsnh-10-360.png

Why is it alwaysonly the last few frames of a GFS run that show a significant strat warning? I'd say it's because it is always 15 days away and never gets any closer! We have been posting day 10+ strat warmings since Christmas and we are now looking at Feb lol

[kev238]

I am a weather enthusiast, therefore I enjoy all interesting weather. I have enjoyed the storms this past month and it intrigues me as to how wet and mild this winter could end up being.

The met office have been awesome this winter in their mid range forecasts, regardless of the small hints in the models until they start singing cold I would say it remains unlikely. For weeks there has been talk of what could happen ; reality is potentially a plus 6 cet for January and a month that could end in the very wet category across England especially.

This is not a doom and gloom post as I welcome all weather.

[Recretos]

The MJO seems to be heading into the phase 7 soon, as mentioned before, so I made the phase 7 composite for January, ENSO filtered and amplitude above 1. I didnt apply any lag, because the dates are mixed, some are in the middle of the phase, some at the end,... So in average a default lag time is already integrated. 

 

 

There is some similarity between the MJO composite and the EPS forecast. You could say there is an MJO signal "present" in the forecasts. 

 

 

 

As for anomalies, it also doesn't differ that much from the composite. Tho we must realize that there are other factors at work even in the MJO composite, since that is not the only thing that affected the pattern in those days that are in the composite. Nonetheless, the similarities are there which is an indicator of the MJO signal being present. 

 

 

 

Regards

[Frosty.]

Is that a Ramp SS......... :-),

Anyone who feared winter wasn't coming, well don't worry, I presume the "polar" opposite of the latest Express headlines will now soon be upon us, no pun intended.....

I hope madden predicts next winter to be very mild, we are sure to get a long freeze if he does

[bluearmy]

London extended ens remain consistent with a wide spread around av maxes 5c. The clustered cold runs maxing around 2/3c. uncertainty remains clear longer term.