Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[ribster]

Utterly baffled by the same old posters saying winter won't deliver, and an island where it is notoriously difficult to get cold/snow, yet you keep coming back supposedly looking for cold charts...

[bluearmy]

Huge spreads on the London ens later on but the clusters are the colder ones ( which they always are as you won't get a scattering of sub zero maxes as you will plus 8c maxes).

Btw, although tropospherically, the end of that gfs run doesn't look special, the strat vortex is completely split post T348.

[Polar Maritime]

Excellent model watching over the last few days, I can see a strong signal for snowfalls during the last week of January from the N/W, bringing cold PM air, finally i am confidant we are tipping in the right direction.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Edited January 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[UV-RAY]

Personally the word potential is fast becoming tiresome, yes there's lots of potential in the output but this takes a giant leap of faith and that's one thing this winter has been lacking. For me the outlook really hasn't changed that much troughing over the UK and a block to our NE, I've said if before and I'll say it again but this winter as all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter which produced similar Synoptics with a block to our NE which was always tantalising close but rarely delivered.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

 

Latest +120 fax - so near and yet so far with regard to that scandi high

 

EWS 

[Cloud 10]

120 hrs fax chart.

 

 

 

The fat lady has been taken off the stage and locked in her dressing room

until further notice. 

[Tamara]

There is no right or wrong way to view the model output: short term, medium term, long term - all methods are valid if they are objective and balanced Its not a competition to be vindicated first - afterall the professionals can't buy into the future We all have preferences and different ways of looking at things, but if we see anything obvious occuring in terms of bias then best let it ride without any rutting

 

Whatever view one has there is plenty to keep interested in. The season has been a mild and vortex driven one so far much as expected, but the signals for change are now growing for a different polar profile - so maybe on that basis hopefully something for all tastes by the time winter finishes Lots to watch for and enjoy

 

Various 'fat lady' reference analogies to model output are best ignored as well  irrespective of personal size ! 

Edited January 17, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Frosty.]

Keep the faith SI :-) I wobbled but bounced back and when steve murr posts it's a positive sign of cold to come. We need to hold our nerve because the swingometer will swing in coldies favour soon.

[SMU]

Hum ive a feeling the 168 charts will be upgraded in the morning......

 

s

[Continental Climate]

I see potential for a colder version of the very disturbed pattern we had during most of december with rather more polar maritime / arctic influence.

That's not something I wish to contemplate frosty PM air mass dosent really do it for the north east of england

[Frosty.]

That's not something I wish to contemplate frosty PM air mass dosent really do it for the north east of england

Arctic does though with snow showers for counties bordering the north sea, I mentioned a combination of PM and Arctic and reading todays met office outlook implied that colder shots will grow in frequency towards months end and especially during february.

[Geordiesnow]

 

Do you think there is a reason why those who are ones for the "technical side of the weather" see the cold potential you don't? Clue: Answer is above in bold. 

 

There seems to be a lot of negativity from a group of posters tonight towards those who are very versed in the nature of the models, 

 

 

I've been here long enough now to never take anything face value but the facts are, there are only subtle signs that we may see something colder and it has not been much more than that during this month, what the models agree on is that low pressure will be the main player with temperatures near normal if not even just a touch below but no significant cold weather on the way. 

 

I am certainly not ruling anything out and it does appear the models are hinting at the PV in the Arctic is going to get smashed up which could lead to something down the line but as I alluded too earlier, its like you see the light at the end of the dark tunnel but we don't seem to be edging any closer to it. 

 

What the models agree on is that any blocking to the NE is not going anywhere fast so the quote that its a weak block is untrue, its just not set up in the right place to influence our weather unfortunately, at least for the time being. 

Edited January 17, 2014 by Geordiesnow

[Jason M]

120 hrs fax chart.

 

fax120s.gif

 

 

The fat lady has been taken off the stage and locked in her dressing room

until further notice. 

 

 

Trouble is that I can still hear her singing

 

Fat lady is in full cry on the GFS. So much so that if you buried her in a steel cage at the bottom of the atlantic we would still hear her dulcet tones drifting in on the mild SW winds  . Ensembles out to day 7 are not exactly awe inspiring either (albeit there are several short but not sharp easterlies).

 

As others have said on here its too early to write of Feb (although maybe fair enough for Jan now). If the current state of affairs does persist though pop pickers, we could be entering the mild winter charts as high as number two or three. We surely can't beat 1988, but this winter is giving it a damn good try.

 

I can understand the posts about the PV as its logical that it will take increasing punishment from here on through Feb, but there is no evidence of this making any difference in our part of the world yet. I can understand people having a pop a GFS for being too progressive but that doesn't necessarily mean its wrong.

 

Anyway, onto tomorrow.

[Continental Climate]

Arctic does though with snow showers for counties bordering the north sea, I mentioned a combination of PM and Arctic and reading todays met office outlook implied that colder shots will grow in frequency towards months end and especially during february.

A straight northerly doesn't really do it for co. Durham either snow showers usually skirt the coast and do not travel much inland. There has to be some easterly element to the wind direction for us to benefit. That is why 2009/10 were such awesome years

[damianslaw]

Overall the outputs have some interest but it's now becoming rather tiresome to have to fret over the smallest change in the relatively early timeframe which is exactly what we're left with at least to scrape some interest before the Arctic high, PV battle commences.

 

Theres still an outside chance of some snow given tonights trends, can we get a bit more westwards correction or will it be the case of seeing the snow falling just over the North Sea.

 

Later the outputs look like delivering perhaps either the final insult to this winter or a change of fortunes, I'd say given the Arctic high and other changes going on in the background then we need to see that deliver otherwise I fear it might just be one of those winters where things refuse to fall into place.

 

I think your being very premature here - it is the 17th January, not 17th February.. too early to start saying 'final insult'...

 

I do tire a little of posts writing off seasons at the mid-point stage and given the first half of March especially in the north is often colder than first half of December even more so at this stage in the winter.. its far too early to turn the back on this winter yet. Worth looking at the charts from Feb 2005 - not saying at all this is what will happen this year, but after months of atlantic mild mush what a change in fortunes which I remember at the time surprised everyone...

 

Northerlies and easterlies become much more likely through February - the polar vortex naturally declines in strength.

 

As I said I think the tables are turning against the atlantic mild attack being the form horse- 'other horses' so to speak are about to give it a proper race from now onwards.

 

I might be coming across a little abrupt in this post this evening - not my usual style has to be said, but reading many posts this evening has annoyed me a little - many discounting more seasoned forecasters views, discounting longer term background signals etc and appearing the accept the status quo will simply go on and on - history shows this is never the case!!

Edited January 18, 2014 by damianslaw

[Mucka]

Hum ive a feeling the 168 charts will be upgraded in the morning......

 

s

 

They will, to 156 charts. 

 

There is a serious point though, the 168 charts tomorrow were obviously this evenings 180 output (even though we don't see 180 on ECM) so I think I can see where you are going - Arctic ridge linked with Scandi ridge and some decent undercut with the pattern backed a little West and good amplification upstream?

Well those of us with a cold bias are due a perfectly reasonable if slightly optimistic call coming off so let's hope this is it.

BTW please fell free to elaborate if I was miles off with what you were hoping to see.

[joggs]

Trouble is this winter as we all know is the american cold meeting the warmer atlantic and powering the jet,also with the sun whilst in a lull but more active,meaning maybe not such a southern tracking jet as 3 or so years ago?

And too be honest northern america has fallen lucky from a coldie perspective just like we did in 2010 etc.One thimmg i do remember from the cold spell of feb 1991 is that the n,e of usa had record high temps,20 odds deg i think?!?!!?

Not saying its rule of thumb but this rutt we are in re pattern to me finally looks like abaiting.But will the forecasted split flow be favourable to the uk?

[bobbydog]

phew!.......and.... chill....... (see what i did there?)

[Catacol]

Yes I can Chiono, I'm just commenting on the dreadful 18z output as it stands and more than a little frustrated with all the 'promise' in the charts never seeming to come to fruition.

I appreiciate all the technical brilliance exhibited on here by many wise souls but until the models show proper cold within a realistic timespan and consistently, I will always remain cynical.

I sincerely hope this promised cold bonanza does come off in February or whenever it is supposed to just excuse me being less than hyped up over the prospects.

 

I think the obvious point is that the output is not dreadful. GFS resorts to zonal at around 264 - but then again it usually does. Output up until that point is the best we have seen all winter. You play a relatively clever game on this forum but once you start misrepresenting actual output then it is a game you start to lose.

 

Is ECM extended a poor chart tonight?

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[phil nw.]

I am thnking we are not finished with our Scandi.block yet after seeing tonights fax's.

T120

 

another little push back west.Much less progressive than the GFS at the same time.

If this block stays around i wouldn't be surprised to see our trough split later on and those heights build westward over the top.

[Duane S.]

I think it is worth remembering that we are dealing with the onset of an Arctic high here. A couple of thoughts on that.

 

Firstly, the models' inability to accurately forecast the subsequent outcome will occur each and every time it is involved (and the human experts will fair little better).

 

Secondly, it is perhaps a reflection on how our winters have changed since 2008 that we are not more agog at the prospect of a true Arctic high forming and nosing over the pole to our side of the Northern hemisphere. Before someone pipes up to say this is more like 88/89 (seen a few references already), it is most certainly not. Vast differences.

 

My take is that, for whatever reason, had the predisposition to colder winters that took hold 6 years ago not been in place with this winter setup then yes we probably would be experiencing a winter much more akin to that one, with the jet running further north, the vortex even more organised and resolute and us under alternating Bartlett / Euro high pattern to the south and unsettled to the north. 

Edited January 18, 2014 by s4lancia

[Captain Shortwave]

I am thnking we are not finished with our Scandi.block yet after seeing tonights fax's.

T120

 

another little push back west.Much less progressive than the GFS at the same time.

If this block stays around i wouldn't be surprised to see our trough split later on and those heights build westward over the top.

Safest route to cold is if that high manages to push the uk the other side of the mild/cold boundary as it's presence would be invaluable with the Arctic high showing up as you could potentially retrograde those heights from north east to directly north of the UK. Given the Arctic profile developing it would be fantastic to push some of the very cold air over Siberia our way. Still worth watching. If it doesn't happen then we are relying on a decent Atlantic ridge to drive us into a colder weather pattern which to be honest I'm not too keen on given the rather poor success rate from this route over the winter so far.

[Weathizard]

I am thnking we are not finished with our Scandi.block yet after seeing tonights fax's.

T120

 

another little push back west.Much less progressive than the GFS at the same time.

If this block stays around i wouldn't be surprised to see our trough split later on and those heights build westward over the top.

Shows the human input of the chief forecaster, the Met are quite clearly going with the 'block' holding more to our N/NE, that fax chart is pretty nice considering the GFS at the same time. I know this gets said every winter really but there really is an extreme level of uncertainty at the moment and I think the models are going to struggle for the time being, theres lots of complicated PROJECTED weather patterns going on around the NH within the next 10 days or so. Nothing to be overly depressed about, nor excited about but you can tell this thread is full of people frustrated by a rubbish, let down winter so far.

 

Understandable I guess, but I still think something is around the corner with the projected NH pattern we'd be exceptionally unlucky to miss out for the entire winter, chins up chumps.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The common theme of the GEFS today has been to downgrade Greenland height rises days 10-14 and instead feature a Canadian/Greenland vortex.

 

 

The ECM mean is much better as it separates the energy, keeping the western segment of vortex further west and the eastern segment further east. Therefore, as Nick S pointed out earlier, the Atlantic high has a better shot of ridging N without the phasing of lows to our N. I suspect that we won't get the cleanest evolution here so we're relying on luck and that the GEFS have got the wrong end of the stick (I don't really rate them but still....).

 

At the present time (in terms of modelling) I'd suggest that flooding issues could be more of a concern than any deep freeze or notably cold weather. This may well change tomorrow, Sunday etc but until the GEFS are in agreement with the notion of Greenland height rises I can't really invest myself too much into a cold prognosis.

Edited January 18, 2014 by CreweCold

[Duane S.]

Just looking at the various MJO forecasts, a fair agreement to go into fairly high amplitude phase 6/7. That suggests to me the Azores is going to get involved in proceedings and certainly shows where recent GFS runs has been getting the bullish Atlantic ridging from later on in FI. Shame then that there is a tendancy thereafter to recurve back into the circle of nothingness instead of building into phase 8. Plenty of times for change here yet though.