Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[chris55]

ECM 240 looking loaded!!! Hopefully the latter third of winter might actually decide to deliver??? here's hoping.

 

[Frosty.]

I really think snow will be heading to our back yards in around 10 days or less and the northeast corner of the uk could see snow at some point next week. The wheel of fortune is turning in favour of wintry potential at long last. I think it will be arctic sourced rather than russian but I truly believe that feb and march will make up for lost time in terms of ice, frost and SNOW :-)

[The PIT]

latest Model scores for 00 oz run show ECM on top followed by UKMO while the GFS is being lapped. This for day six. For day five a tie between UKMO and ECM. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html

Now there's a big differance between UKMO and ECM tonight at T144. UKmo shows a probably dry mild spell building while ECM thinks pretty the same as the GFS idea with lows sweeping in from west north west.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

ECM 240 looking loaded!!! Hopefully the latter third of winter might actually decide to deliver??? here's hoping.

 

Put it this way, December 2010 was a very cold and snowy month followed by two winter months of mild dross and we all loved that winter, so personally I would take a cold month with snowy spells to end winter (even half as good as December 2010 would do me). Things do seem to be supporting a pattern change in around 10 days time if the ECM/GFS are to believed. Edited January 17, 2014 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[bobbydog]

Low, after low, after low, pushing over the high and nose diving across the UK according to GFS, could be wintry here and there, but no freeze. Need a polar vortex shut down, which isn't going to happen.

 

erm no.

 

by all means post what the models are showing but not what they are not showing.

 

if you haven't got a clue what you're on about, don't bother

[snowbob]

I really think snow will be heading to our back yards in around 10 days or less and the northeast corner of the uk could see snow at some point next week. The wheel of fortune is turning in favour of wintry potential at long last. I think it will be arctic sourced rather than russian but I truly believe that feb and march will make up for lost time in terms of ice, frost and SNOW :-)

glad to see your back to your old self frostyIt will come

[Frosty.]

glad to see your back to your old self frostyIt will come

Yes I wobbled but came bouncing back, there is growing model evidence that the wheel of fortune which has been so against coldies is indeed spinning towards more favourable solutions, let's face it, its all down to luck or lack of at the end of the day....winter is coming.

[SMU]

latest Model scores for 00 oz run show ECM on top followed by UKMO while the GFS is being lapped. This for day six. For day five a tie between UKMO and ECM. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html

Now there's a big differance between UKMO and ECM tonight at T144. UKmo shows a probably dry mild spell building while ECM thinks pretty the same as the GFS idea with lows sweeping in from west north west.

 

Dry mild spell??

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011712/UN144-21.GIF?17-18

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011712/UN144-7.GIF?17-18

 

That comment couldnt further from the truth based on the UKMO... Maybe you still have the 00z charts.

UKMO wise represents one of our coldest days at the surface @ 144, with sub 4c maximas widespread & frosty weather. the core of the atlantic is moving away NE so will only really influence the far NW where as the bulk of the UK would be cold & frosty until 168/180

 

Even @ day 3 UKMo is cold

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580UK.GIF?17-18

 

In terms of today & indeed yesterday we still on the periphery of the cold but the mild seems just as far away as the cold with a wedge of chilly nothingness over the UK which should promp some frosts-

 

The clear talking point is the day 8 / 9 charts that represent NH charts something close to what we have seen in more recent winters with a huge dip in the -AO index towards -4/ -5

 

Whilst that doesnt guarentee the cold for the uk ( nothing ever does) it will ensure that the zonal wind is reversed & a higher chance of blocking which has been notably absent thus far this winter.

It does feel we are chasing rainbows, however to a certain extent we always will be on models that run to day 10 & beyond.

 

A clear signal tonight from the high arctic that things are about to abruptly change up there- that will hopefully filter our way day 10-12.

Expect the ECM to pick up a negative zonal flow at 60z tonight around 240.- watch for that negative anomaly to spready down to 50N...

 

s

Edited January 17, 2014 by Steve Murr

[weatherguy]

Put it this way, December 2010 was a very cold and snowy month followed by two winter months of mild dross and we all loved that winter, so personally I would take a cold month with snowy spells to end winter (even half as good as December 2010 would do me). Things do seem to be supporting a pattern change in around 10 days time if the ECM/GFS are to believed.

 

Indeed, I fondly remember last "winter", when in fact the vast majority of cold was delivered in meteorological Spring!  I'd say it only takes one really severe cold spell to satisfy most in this country, especially after lowering expectations from the early 00s winters....

 

It's encouraging to see the trends of yesterday remaining remarkably similar in the OP runs tonight.  Looking like a "nearly" cold shot over the next few days, before turning wetter once more as that energy spills off of the canadian PV segment.  The good thing is that final deep low drags up a ridge behind it, in conjunction with an arctic high and pacific ridge, sending this into Europe and *fingers crossed* delivering a potentially very good cold shot from the east.  Lots of hoops to jump through to get to this stage, but at least we can see the hoops are there now!

 

 

Yes I wobbled but came bouncing back, there is growing model evidence that the wheel of fortune which has been so against coldies is indeed spinning towards more favourable solutions, let's face it, its all down to luck or lack of at the end of the day....winter is coming.

 

The Starks are always right eventually

Edited January 17, 2014 by weatherguy

[bluearmy]

pretty good agreement at day 10 across the models that go into such territory.  considering what that shows - deep usa trough/ mid atlantic ridge/ huge arctic high/ jet headed into europe - we've been in worse places this winter!!  its the period between the T96 disruption and the broad day 9/10 pattern that still seems uncertain.  if those day 10 charts begin to count down, we can enjoy the flip flopping that precedes it. 

[nodrog]

As I see it especially for the NW.  (GEFS TF)

 

Average Temps at 2 meters Analysis: Leveling off for a cooler period, a slight dip towards the end. Notice the larger wave length style indicating cooler nights

Surface Pressure & Temperatures at 850hpa Analysis: Surface pressure seems to climb thus a slight cooler period seen especially at night however a sudden dip around 25th indicates the Atlantic is brewing something up. 850's not as smooth with a dipping again indicated a slight cooler than recent theme.Precipitation Analysis: Rain never too far away at any given point until the end of January with a slight ease noted. About the 25th precipitation present indicating a wetter than average theme.

 

Summary: Staying with the precipitation on the 25th a slight dry day just before also provides strong evidence with the surface pressure of a Low pressure system crossing our area, this period seems unsettled with potential gales.Running up to this a mix of wet and sunny periods to be had as temperatures fall by a degree or three on some settled days. It is not seen for temperatures to be below freezing at any given day however in the strong winds later it may 'feel like' below zero. Rain is expected to remain a common feature in this period however on brighter intervals - in the sun it will feel quite present but not warm. It is likely gales or severe gales in exposed parts will affect our region with heavy rain at times on the 25th in to the 26th and possibly on into February. No frost is likely nor are we to expect any snow events on either high or low ground (Locally).So to recap, a settled(ish) period with rain at times some heavy interlaced with brighter intervals - clear nights will feel colder but no frost. The last weekend is expected to turn quite unsettled with gales and more heavy rain some blustery with wintery showers. Then a slightly calmer theme like previous with odd windy episodes.

 

More...

Edited January 17, 2014 by Tangerine Lion

[ANYWEATHER]

Unfortunately, I cannot see anything really wintry in the next ten days from the ecm and gfs. The cold block to our NorthEast as no influence over the Uk ,well other than slowing down frontal rain in the next week. more problems with flooding! So if I go by tonights models Im not convinced of anything really cold and snow only confined to the Uks highest ground. If day 10 from both ecm and gfs verify we will be looking at again a renewed surge of stormy weather...  I think it will be the end of this month ,before we see some serious cold,,,  

Edited January 17, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[pdiddy]

http://www.solarham.net/regions/map.htm

 

given low solar activity, can someone please advise how long (indeed if at all) the effects are felt in the synoptics?

[Long haul to mild]

Trying to pick out the pearls amongst some of the rather doomy posts this evening is hard work. Yes, we may be influenced by Atlantic lows for a week or so but it seems that some posters are failing to spot the potential after Day 10, picked out by both ECM and GFS tonight.

Yes, some hurdles to clear first, but the trend towards Arctic heights spreading down to Greenland is there, we just need a few things to fall into place. The potential is there for all to see, if you're prepared to see it to start with.

What made me laugh most tonight was the lauding of the EC32 this winter. If there's one thing I've learnt over the last couple of months, it's not to trust it in the slightest (see also CFS)!

Edited January 17, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[ANYWEATHER]

http://www.solarham.net/regions/map.htm

 

given low solar activity, can someone please advise how long (indeed if at all) the effects are felt in the synoptics?

Ask Piers Corbyn....

[bluearmy]

ecm op and ens mean in excellent agreement right to day 10.

[johnholmes]

well the saga continues with NOAA on both its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, link below. Just when will something change in a major way?

Bit like listening to the Archers, those of you old enough to remember old Walter Gabriel!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

as they say I'll get me coat

 

there are small changes in the contours, small but they are they in depths, but just if they are the start of changes in the Greenland/Iceland/n Norway region I honestly do not know. Sooner or later something has to change but which way is the question.

 

I have been following these charts on a daily basis for over 4 years and this is the first time that I am totally stumped as to what the charts may look like 4-5 days further on.

Edited January 17, 2014 by johnholmes

[damianslaw]

Looks like we could be heading towards a tipping point in winter 2013/2014, one which is moving us away from the mild atlantic strong PV dominated pattern to one more conducive to colder and hopefully drier episodes courtesy of change in the northern hemispheric profile.

 

Both GFS and ECM continue to indicate a major build of heights over the poles with a signature negative AO index before the month is out and a strong possibility of a split PV - probably in response to developments higher up in the atmosphere which are combining to weaken the PV.

 

In response to the above, it is no surprise to see the synoptics shown by ECM and GFS at the 240 hr timeframe - all very plausible, i.e. a strong transfer of energy off the Canadian vortex heading our way which in turn due to its intensity will enable that crucial build of heights behind thanks to the development of an amplified flow over NE USA/East Canadian seaboard - another key ingredient for a colder pattern, the atlantic and arctic heights then have a very easy ride in joining together and hence we see a northerly/northeasterly plunge.

 

However, such developments are well beyond the reliable timeframe and in the meantime we have a trough stuck in limbo thanks to the strong scandi heights and we await the kick from the energy off the Canadian vortex mentioned above to shake off this current stalemate.

 

In overview, the models are showing a far more convincing evolution to a colder pattern than at any stage this winter - lets see if they stick with this evolution in the coming runs.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble at day 10

 

 

GFS ensemble

 

 

850's

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Put it this way, December 2010 was a very cold and snowy month followed by two winter months of mild dross and we all loved that winter, so personally I would take a cold month with snowy spells to end winter (even half as good as December 2010 would do me). Things do seem to be supporting a pattern change in around 10 days time if the ECM/GFS are to believed.

If I could have 1 week or even 2-3 days of falling and lying snow this winter, I would look back on it with much fondness. Winter 1990/91 would be long forgotten were it not for that 7-10 day period in mid February which brought many places some decent falls of snow - apart from that one mid Feb cold spell - that winter was on the most part fairly naff (apart from the short lived localised snowfall in English midlands in Dec)

 

Looking ahead I would love to see the scandi high exert more influence next week but I fear it is a real long shot. We may have to wait until the very end of Jan or early Feb going on current output, however there is always the danger those charts will totally downgrade closer to the time. Saying that, we are in a much better position now than at anytime this winter and if charts like this come to fruition - just like in winter 1990/91, anything is possible

 

EWS

[Fred Sykes]

What did the hurricane say to the coconut palm tree?

.............hold on to your nuts, this is no ordinary blow job!!

[Bobby]

ECM ens mean looks unsettled, stormy even around day 7 and later.

 

 

 

Still that piece of the PV over NE Canada at day 10 releasing deep cold into the Atlantic and helping to keep it angry

 

 

 

I think storms could be making the headlines again by next week looking at the output, the jet is looking really fired up, unless some blocking can develop and keep the wrath of the Atlantic at bay.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Bobby

[damianslaw]

Unfortunately, I cannot see anything really wintry in the next ten days from the ecm and gfs. The cold block to our NorthEast as no influence over the Uk ,well other than slowing down frontal rain in the next week. more problems with flooding! So if I go by tonights models Im not convinced of anything really cold and snow only confined to the Uks highest ground. If day 10 from both ecm and gfs verify we will be looking at again a renewed surge of stormy weather...  I think it will be the end of this month ,before we see some serious cold,,,  

 

 

Yes but as I have said in my post above, both ECM and GFS are showing a very plausible and I will say the most convincing evolution to a cold outlook before the month is out for the first time all season.

[weather eater]

Tonight’s 12z ECM run looking very similar to some recent GFS runs especially at around the 240hr mark, it will of course change at that range, but if it comes close then it will be a big coup for the GFS in regards a pattern that could affect us, whatever the verification stats say, every dog has its day sometimes.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Friday January 17th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show Low pressure continuing to dominate the weather over the UK for the next week with the general trend for Low pressure areas to slip SE across the UK while filling up early in the period with changeable conditions for all areas. Later next week a new Low slips SE down over the UK too with further rain and showers for all but with an increase of the Westerly wind to accompany the rain.

 

GFS then shows the Azores High ridging towards Southern Britain for a time late next week damping down the rain for a time in the South while some continues across the North. Later in the run the Low pressure areas to the North dig deeper down over Britain again with gales and heavy rain giving way to cold and showery conditions with snow showers in places late in the run as winds swing Northerly, this due to the Low pressure area responsible moving SE over the UK and Europe to be followed by a brief ridge of High pressure by Day 15.

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of generally unsettled weather with rain or showers at times. For much of the time temperatures will remain close to average though a slow dip below average may be apparent for some Southern areas late in the run. It may also prove rather windy at times to next week.

 

UKMO shows a quiet day next Thursday as pressure has become slack over the UK as Low pressure clears the SE and High pressure tries to ridge NE over Britain. The likely result will be a rather cold day with a lot of cloud and a little rain in the East, possibly falling as sleet and snow over the hills of the NE.

 

GEM tonight shows a very unsettled period from the end of next week as deep Low pressure areas either pass East to the North of the UK or down across the Nation giving rise to strong winds and rain at times throughout. Some wintry showers would be possible in the colder NW flow later, especially in the North.

 

NAVGEM shows a more sedate period late next week and weekend but still largely unsettled with some rain at times as troughs pass East over all areas over the period.

 

ECM also continues the unsettled mode throughout the latter stages of it's run with increasingly deep depressions coming back from the NW across Britain with gale or severe gale force winds from the West likely with spells of rain followed by wintry showers the most likely weather pattern by 10 days time with temperatures near to or somewhat below average.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight signify that Low pressure close to Northern Scotland is the bias of opinion between the ensemble members of ECM tonight keeping unsettled and breezy weather going for all areas at this juncture in average temperatures.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow maintaining it's current position under moderate strength over the next 4-5 days. Later next week the flow strengthens markedly which may promote some strong depressions once again to the North of Britain leaving the UK in some strong surface wind strengths too.

 

In Summary the weather remains quite unsettled over the next few weeks. In the first week the weather will see occasional rainfall some of which will be heavy and slow moving as fronts and sliding depressions stall over the UK before losing their identity in situ. There could be some drier spells in places when frost patches and fog become possible as well as some snow on Northern hills at times. Through Week 2 the Jet Stream is strongly supported to strengthen markedly spinning up some more powerful depressions close to the Northern Isles whipping up severe Westerly gales at times and rain bands followed by showers, some wintry the favoured sequence of events. Overall temperatures will stay close to average or somewhat below at times through the whole period.