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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After a colder run last night on the 12z the GFS 8 day temperature anomaly is back average or slightly above away from the far north of England, most of Scotland and Northern Ireland. A small part of northern wales is also slightly below average

 

Posted Image

 

yesterdays 00z to compare shows the 2 00z runs are not far off

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

But what if the zonal express is replaced by a Bartlett high? Coldies worst nightmare. However, I agree with those who think the outlook is more encouraging from a cold perspective than at any stage of this woeful winter so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

A split PV and the whole of February to enjoy it bring it on.....we deserve it

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011700/EDH1-240.GIF?17-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-240.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011700/gemnh-0-240.png?00

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014011700/navgemnh-0-180.png?17-06

 

Judging by the mood of some of the posts this morning,i think they must have slept with "Shannon" only to get out of the wrong side of the bed.

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

But what if the zonal express is replaced by a Bartlett high? Coldies worst nightmare. However, I agree with those who think the outlook is more encouraging from a cold perspective than at any stage of this woeful winter so far.

That would have to be weighed up against the prospect of further very wet weather though Frosty IF the cold fails to deliver. At least a Bartlett would mean a lot more drier weather for the exceptionally soggy south, so I guess given the option of that or a repeat of Dec most would now choose the former...especially those with a high tide mark half way up their living room wall!!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

to be very honest im very confident that the polar profiles are slowly edging in favour of a more blocked pattern every model shows a split in the vortex with a number of options that favour a more direct approach to cold.

we just need to wait for the polar profile to take effect then the whole northern hemisphere pattern will switch and this switch is already pretty close its just placements of low pressure and high pressure that need to settle,

 

over all there seems a persistent sign that heights will build towards the arctic cycle then possibly filtering into the eastern side of Greenland now of coarse some models don't show the arctic cycle heights,

but have heights elsewhere other than the Canadian area where the vortex looks like remaining but certainly a clean split in the vortex.

 

we do need the vortex to feed energy in towards the uk but because pressure is high around to our sw this is shifting everything ne but not on all models! some are showing more of a swing towards lower heights into Europe we need this we need energy to flatten the azores  and the jet to send energy se and this is a strong possibility!

 

as the vortex weakens a little more as time progresses then allowing the jet to weaken,

I really do think that the northern hemisphere is going into a major pattern change!.

 

although finely balanced on the models the flip flopping continues with great interest this tells us they do not have a persistent pattern to show as of yet apart from the arctic height or some form of northern blocking. 

 

by sunday we will for certain have a more consistent models output as by then heights will be established and any teleconnection will have also more consistency but like I said if all fails im with steve murr cooking sausages for next winter lol.

 

its also worth taking a look at recent runs from the main models to work out which was the best at the scandi heights we have established now including longevity and mb strength and placement although as we seen in recent winters northern blocking when established are really rather robust and can hold on for a fair amount of time.

 

in honesty its a stalemate but this battle can turn with a flip of a coin!

 

it takes just one sharp shortwave to get south east then it can be cold,

it can also work the other way.

 

but do us model watchers really think the scandi heights are just gonna bow down and disappear because I bet a bottom dollar it wont be going to far to soon slight shift and everything is game on!,

its so finely balanced and the models have ideas but not clearly in agreement.

 

I see more in favour of cold than the zonal onslaught of December and remember its been a very vortex owned winter so far but feb is a month that changes are more likely than not.

Depends because yes sometimes blocking to our N/NE doesn't deliver especially if we have a W based negative NAO. However sometimes it does i.e 2009/10. Using the GEFS ensembles for the period we are referring to i.e late Jan is pointless. I would rather use seaweed or a certain forecaster that the Daily Express uses for forecasts!

 

Very much expecting some peachy charts to appear from the GFS over the next few days including the ECM when it comes in range.

I agree tetis we been here before and you and many others more than myself.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

to be very honest im very confident that the polar profiles are slowly edging in favour of a more blocked pattern every model shows a split in the vortex with a number of options that favour a more direct approach to cold.

we just need to wait for the polar profile to take effect then the whole northern hemisphere pattern will switch and this switch is already pretty close its just placements of low pressure and high pressure that need to settle,

 

over all there seems a persistent sign that heights will build towards the arctic cycle then possibly filtering into the eastern side of Greenland now of coarse some models don't show the arctic cycle heights,

but have heights elsewhere other than the Canadian area where the vortex looks like remaining but certainly a clean split in the vortex.

 

we do need the vortex to feed energy in towards the uk but because pressure is high around to our sw this is shifting everything ne but not on all models! some are showing more of a swing towards lower heights into Europe we need this we need energy to flatten the azores  and the jet to send energy se and this is a strong possibility!

 

as the vortex weakens a little more as time progresses then allowing the jet to weaken,

I really do think that the northern hemisphere is going into a major pattern change!.

 

although finely balanced on the models the flip flopping continues with great interest this tells us they do not have a persistent pattern to show as of yet apart from the arctic height or some form of northern blocking. 

 

by sunday we will for certain have a more consistent models output as by then heights will be established and any teleconnection will have also more consistency but like I said if all fails im with steve murr cooking sausages for next winter lol.

 

its also worth taking a look at recent runs from the main models to work out which was the best at the scandi heights we have established now including longevity and mb strength and placement although as we seen in recent winters northern blocking when established are really rather robust and can hold on for a fair amount of time.

 

in honesty its a stalemate but this battle can turn with a flip of a coin!

 

it takes just one sharp shortwave to get south east then it can be cold,

it can also work the other way.

 

but do us model watchers really think the scandi heights are just gonna bow down and disappear because I bet a bottom dollar it wont be going to far to soon slight shift and everything is game on!,

its so finely balanced and the models have ideas but not clearly in agreement.

 

I see more in favour of cold than the zonal onslaught of December and remember its been a very vortex owned winter so far but feb is a month that changes are more likely than not.

I agree tetis we been here before and you and many others more than myself.

Indeed, NAVGEM is significantly quicker in building heights towards the Pole and although it's not a hugely consistent model (tho better than when it was NOGAPS) it does show just how quickly things can change way ooooop N.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Sorry to quote you both, however I'm confused as to whether the ECM mean is blinkin' woeful or very encouraging. I'm naturally inclined towards the assessment of SK for a number of reasons but can anybody clarify why it can be construed to fall into either of these categories? Thank you

I fail to see how it could be construed as woeful - a very strong (at this range) signal for an Arctic high along with the return of that Aleutian ridge, the Polar Vortex split (with a considerable chunk of it dropping into Eurasia), a NW-SE tilted jet, low heights remaining in Europe and noticeable amplification of the Azores high into the mid Atlantic, with some hints of heights building into Greenland.

We haven't seen most of these features at all so far this winter and that we have at least some support from the GEFS is very encouraging to say the least. Whether or not the easterly we've been chasing develops this does look to be the next phase of the evolution driven by some big hemispheric changes.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

After a colder run last night on the 12z the GFS 8 day temperature anomaly is back average or slightly above away from the far north of England, most of Scotland and Northern Ireland. A small part of northern wales is also slightly below average

 

Posted Image

 

yesterdays 00z to compare shows the 2 00z runs are not far off

 

Posted Image

I think the major changes will happen around day 8 to day 10.

as for Bartlett highs oh please not likely with the northern hemisphere profile.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

I think the major changes will happen around day 8 to day 10.

as for Bartlett highs oh please not likely with the northern hemisphere profile.

yes shed lets not forget the jma

Posted Image

Posted Image

and ironic that there is no arctic high as like the gfs ukmo so just shows there are so many different ideas.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Depends because yes sometimes blocking to our N/NE doesn't deliver especially if we have a W based negative NAO. However sometimes it does i.e 2009/10. Using the GEFS ensembles for the period we are referring to i.e late Jan is pointless. I would rather use seaweed or a certain forecaster that the Daily Express uses for forecasts!

 

Very much expecting some peachy charts to appear from the GFS over the next few days including the ECM when it comes in range.

Rock on TEITS! I dearly hope you're right it's just so ball achingly difficult to get cold here but I then I guess that's why so many on here are so fanatical about it's pursuit!

If it were the default climate to get cold and snow we'd all be chasing elusive mild synoptics - human nature eh? ! Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Purga
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Pretty much all the of the big 3 now agreeing on the azores high ridging in at around the 144h mark with a very positive NAO signature.

Difficult to see Jan as anything other than a complete write off.

We hope Feb can save the day as it were,a split vortex is looking likely but thats no guarentee of cold for the UK,if there is too much energy left to the north west then its still going to be an uphill struggle....

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Unless the mean ridge to our SW moves we won't benefit from any developments in the Arctic....just more of the same.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Anyone know what the latest EC32 is showing?

 

Gav, the ec32 is very much like previous updates. From the beginning of February thru mid Feb It is showing troughing to our NW and N. By this stage any sign of Scandi blocking has all but gone. Temps look like being around average to slightly below.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Very -AO setting up , high pressure moving south over the pole towards Greenland , means one thing , southerly jet . post-9095-0-29590500-1389955152_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Second run in a row with an Arctic high and Greenland ridging at T260ish:

6z

Posted Image

 

0z

Posted Image

Let's see if this signal can be maintained.

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Flip flop flip flop on the models again this morning. A cold pattern getting close but never quite close enough.

Interesting for me - by T144 the GFS and ECM have developed better cold pooling over Scandi and N Europe. If the Scandi High persists another week, we might be in more able to suck in genuine cold from the east.

Also - can't help thinking the Azores High will eventually link up either with Scandi High or Arctic High via Greenland - probably by the end of the month. If so, how, where and when this happens might decide whether we really do get any deep cold out the main part of winter.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 

Very -AO setting up , high pressure moving south over the pole towards Greenland , means one thing , southerly jet . Posted Imageimage.jpg

 

you would think so shaun but the extended ecm ens continue to run the northern arm through the uk after a short shift south around day 10/11.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

FI is all dancing and all singing for cold and snow, the Scandi High can do one! if the rewards are that good come the end of JanPosted Image

But you said it Yarmy  "Let's see if this signal can be maintained".Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

On the one hand, it's good to see the modelling of that E Pacific ridge extending north later next week along west Canadian coast/Alaska towards the North Pole, allowing upward propagation of WAA and height rises over the Pole. But on the other hand, and closer to home over the North Atlantic sector, we still have the problem of the low heights to the NW driving a strong flat jet towards the UK next week. A section of the Polar Vortex looks to drop south across Quebec early next week, which will only serve to invigorate the jet across the Atlantic towards the UK again, hence models keen on keeping the Atlantic low train running into the UK. 

 

post-1052-0-73428500-1389956425_thumb.gi

 

Given the east trough west ridge pattern looks to remain stagnant upstream over N America, with forcing NE of the Azores high, despite the polar height rises 8-10 days - we remain at the mercy of the Atlantic jet for the reliable timeframe.

 

However, should forecast polar height rises manifest this side of the north pole over Greenland and the GIN corridor, I think we may see some interesting developments cold wise as we head towards the end of the month/early Feb. Already we are seeing interesting synoptics appear on the 00z and 06z GFS in FI.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Sorry to quote you both, however I'm confused as to whether the ECM mean is blinkin' woeful or very encouraging. I'm naturally inclined towards the assessment of SK for a number of reasons but can anybody clarify why it can be construed to fall into either of these categories? Thank you

 

It does depend on which type of model you follow-the ups and downs of the synoptic outputs 2x or 4x daily or the anomaly charts I use which give a much more even idea of what the upper air is showing.

of course even when the upper pattern is correct you then have the hugely difficult task of matching that upper air to a sensible idea of what is likely at the surface. Since meteorology began it has always been easier to get something akin to an actual chart at 500mb much more than at 1000mb-and remains so now.

What I would suggest is when the anomaly charts are being consistent look at the synoptic model to match that with the best match to the anomaly charts. Then you will be reasonably near the pattern. Do NOT expect detail further out than 96h-120h rarely beyond this. If you do that then your ups and downs will be less frequent and your view of what might happen will stay on a more even keel.

The major problem remains what happens to the upper flow which currently splits close to the UK. None of the anomaly charts, out to 14 days ahead, have yet suggested that problem will be solved.

hope that helps a bit/

Edited by johnholmes
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