Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[nick sussex]

Although the irony of this-

 

The Scandi shortwave at T0 does a complete LAP of scandi to end up in exactly the wrong place again at 240-  watch it go round-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

S

Lol! that's unbelievable its like it works its way round to land at the worst possible moment, if that verified like that then seriously we've all been very bad in a previous life and are getting punished for it now !

[ANYWEATHER]

So, after been led up the Garden path last week, we are again showing a cold scenario from the East Tonight! Certainly sees some trend in cold weather...... "Now".... after a rather long wait to see if we are looking west or looking east , the trend is to look east,    Before all of that we have slow moving fronts in the coming days with more problems with flooding!  

Edited January 16, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[UV-RAY]

So, after been led up the Garden path last week, we are again showing a cold scenario from the East Tonight! Certainly sees some trend in cold weather...... "Now".... after a rather long wait to see if we are looking west or looking east , the trend is to look east,    Before all of that we have slow moving fronts in the coming days with more problems with flooding!  

The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

[Stuie]

The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

Fair enough, but you have to admit tonight has been good to look at.

[Blizzardof82]

The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

FWIW Ian F just said on local news, models showing weather turning colder end of next week. Used the term cold snap though not spell, back to the model output and tonights at least gives us hope again of something more seasonal and hopefully things will firm up on next few days runs.

[cheeky_monkey]

The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

Difference is the upstream pattern is modeled to change which it wasn't before..things therefore look much more favourable to a cold outbreak than they did a week ago..then i would have said there was a zero % chance of cold coming to the UK now i would say its 50/50

[Tamara]

I think that the macro pattern shown by the ECM operational would be ideal for longer term cold and would fit and match the better scenarios that very plausibly can evolve from stratospheric forecasts and have already been mooted in previous posts- albeit these forecasts are subject to uncertainties of course, even if not of the magnitude of the current NWP synoptic modelling.

 

In terms of the micro detail though we can ignore the position of the Scandi shortwave by day 10 - much as always taking such synoptic closer detail at face value on operational output with a pinch of salt. The broader overall trend is much more important, and I think that the trend shown by the ECM tonight would be an ideal way forward if it could verify and be sustained in future output. A lot to happen and go right first though of course

 

Edit: Further to my thoughts, I'm delighted with that ECM ensemble agreement at this early stage !

Edited January 16, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[ZONE 51]

The iceberg keeps tryin to get in but keeps getting melted by the blowtorch.

 

The Scandi high is in development, although it is quite possible to remain in this pattern of mild/wet Atlantic flows but with few cold periods thrown in, am seeing signs of a slow change, more and more occluded fronts, less wind, a slow down, changes to the jetstream..  I would expect that once developments to the n/e take hold and move in then there stick for a few weeks I expect...(very cold)

Edited January 16, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[cooling climate]

There is finally something worth talking about in the model output roughly

speaking t168 onwards.Before then yes maybe a little wintryness here and

there but its from the end of next week onwards that things are really

starting to look up.Of course the amplified charts have everything to do

with strat warming but just a little caution as the models may be reacting

to quickly to what is going on higher up in the atmosphere.

Hoping for some fun and games during the last five or so weeks of winter and

perhaps on into March.

[Cleeve Hill]

Looking no further that T168 the models are moving towards some colder weather with high pressure continuing to stick around Norway and beyond and a low drifts south east to prevent any High dropping into Europe. This helps push the High towards the U.k

It's a messy picture but certainly signs of a change and a chance to dry out a bit. Cold enough for snow is another question, but I like what is happening. Pretty strange Synoptics but interesting to see where we go from here.

[That ECM]

It's certainly an interesting trend, it would be good to see output show consistency and firm up on the idea. Let's hope we can get a good swan song from the season.

[Biggin]

Have the models ever shown a split in the PV like that before?? Dont remember myself but mere newbie.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011612/EDH0-240.GIF?16-0

 

ECM 10 day mean shows the UK cold-

 

But look at Canada again!!!!-  big bowling ball cold moving back South.....

 

S

[nick sussex]

Quite a few colder solutions for De Bilt from next Tuesday in the short ensembles compared to the operational run, the colder ones would be correcting the pattern further west and so of course this would increase the chance for snow for the UK as those shortwaves run se.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

 

The ECM postage stamps at T120hrs give a good indication of those that are in that colder cluster as they would have this better early foundation:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011612!!/

 

The ones with the pattern further east and the deeper more rounded shape lows near the UK are unlikely to develop to that colder cluster.

Edited January 16, 2014 by nick sussex

[damianslaw]

I've said in recent days the key to a colder outlook is amplification over NE USA seaboard and Eastern Canadian seaboard which will crucially allow for heights to build to the west of the trough troubling us at the moment - sharpening it and thus sending it SE to allow heights to our NE to build westwards. It sounds simple, but everything so far this winter has been stacked in favour of mild atlantic winning out - however, there are signs we are reaching a tipping point... and the prospect of strong heights over the arctic could become the trump card soon!

[snowbob]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011612/EDH0-240.GIF?16-0 ECM 10 day mean shows the UK cold- But look at Canada again!!!!-  big bowling ball cold moving back South..... S

would that have any affect on us SteveI mean affect the jet streamSorry if it's a doh questionStill learning

[bluearmy]

 

wow!! thats even surprised me.  look at that polar profile. not many places for the trough to go really.  the uppers posted by steve are even more amazing as the spreads for that timeframe reduce compared to day 9.    ecm ens can always be suspect as they follow the op theme too closely. given the entropy , i wasnt expecting such a 'clean' mean chart. however, the spreads are quite large so no time to be cracking open the champers just yet.

Edited January 16, 2014 by bluearmy

[carinthian]

Have got to say my recent visit to Sussex was a bit of a shock. Have never seen this landscape as water filled before. Flying into Gatwick was like looking down on to a bog. Back from the pub tonight, the locals cannot comprehend how much rain has fallen this winter in Southern Britain, especially as they had such a dry winter season so far and only 2 hours flight away from soggy Blighty. They were also in shock that some places in Southern Britain have not seen a snowflake or even a air frost as yet. Not much hope of drying out , looking at tonight models, maybe dryer colder conditions to the east are closer, but the snow, lying deep , crisp and even in Stockholm this evening, might as well be a million miles away or at least a 2 hour flight from.

 Some hope that colder weather on the cards later next week, but its a painful and frustrating process looking at most models and then only 50/50 chance. More importantly, you need to dry out and we over here need some precipitation soon.

[Frosty.]

FWIW Ian F just said on local news, models showing weather turning colder end of next week. Used the term cold snap .

I would settle for any kind of cold to at least make it feel like January for a change, I think next week could be more interesting than the met office are currently describing.

[SMU]

Hi Blue army

 

you could ALMOST say its got reasonable confidence-  look at the UKMO Height profiles at 144 over the arctic

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011612/UN144-21.GIF?16-18

Classic -AO building - possible NOAA Runs tomorrow showing -4/-5 departures.

 

S

[Rocheydub]

Fantastic output this evening, and yes, I know the building blocks are the changes in the upstream pattern, earlier on, but that famous phrase "model fatigue" has me in non-believer mode!!!I will of course, be following very closely, but I'm looking no further until this gets into t72!!! Then I'll believe. Also interesting that MOGREPS reduced it's possibilities to 25% for an easterly solution. This is far from resolved, and while some of our more seasoned posters are giving this a 50/50 chance, I'm not that confident…. YET!

[terrier]

I would say they is still a lot to be resolved in the coming days yet with the models. Mogreps was going for 50% outbreak from the east. Now that's diminished somewhat to 25%. Think 50/50 is about correct at the moment. Still believe this could go either way. Just a quick point regarding the ECM how many times have we seen it showing cold this winter? Only for it to fail miserably every time. Anyway going to be interesting model watching over the coming days. Let the battle commence.

[bluearmy]

Hi Blue army you could ALMOST say its got reasonable confidence-  look at the UKMO Height profiles at 144 over the arctic http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011612/UN144-21.GIF?16-18Classic -AO building - possible NOAA Runs tomorrow showing -4/-5 departures. S

the polar profile is gaining momentum re the developing -AO. The scandi block is the near term and then wanes late on ( or does it). Upstream is going to be amplified but how that transpires re the Canadian vortex energy is anyone's guess. Whilst the extended ens mean/anomolys continue with the same pattern of the trough diving in around the Atlantic ridge, surely the changes over the pole will have some effect on this?

[SMU]

the polar profile is gaining momentum re the developing -AO. The scandi block is the near term and then wanes late on ( or does it). Upstream is going to be amplified but how that transpires re the Canadian vortex energy is anyone's guess. Whilst the extended ens mean/anomolys continue with the same pattern of the trough diving in around the Atlantic ridge, surely the changes over the pole will have some effect on this?

Yes more + polar heights = more force pushing the low South -

 

The GFS control is near on identical to the ECM @ 240

 

S

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Some interesting charts tonight

 

Ironically for all the good charts showing easterly promise - the coldest uppers for U.K. or Ireland currently modeled are on the ECM + 240 chart............ from a westerly