Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

GEFS 06z vs 12z mean at day 7

 

 

 

Not as positive you have to say.

A stronger more cyclonic westerly flow.

And that's why looking at the mean can sometimes be a bad idea, there are a huge range of solutions, note the few which go with a GEM type strong Atlantic ridge, there are also some scandi heights and heights more centred towards the pole. As well as more progressive members.

Also with Ian fergusson stating near record Shannon entropy, and rapidly warming strat and an unseasonably cold plunge about to occur across the states, I would treat progressive members with a lot of skepticism, well as much as the blocking ones get on here 

[MR EXTREMES]

am I right in saying the mjo looks likely to stay into faze 6

[fergieweather]

 

from whom please?do you have access to it?

I'm not sure where the confusion lies here: To reiterate -12z run yesterday = 50%00z run last night = circa 25% (based on direct conversation with UKMO at 4pm today)That's it in a nutshell. I've no idea what today's 12z output delivers (nor will do so until much later this evening).

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

from whom please?

do you have access to it?

From Ian F earlier, John.

[MR EXTREMES]

from whom please?

do you have access to it?

hi john I think ian f posted an hour or so ago.

saying yesterday it stood at 50% but now down to 25% which would mean theres still a small majority going towards an easterly.

GEFS 06z vs 12z mean at day 7

 

 

 

Not as positive you have to say.

A stronger more cyclonic westerly flow.

yes but this is the gefs and it seems to be on its own to be fair.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

from whom please?

do you have access to it?

Sorry John i was in the shower-yes somebody has posted it i see.

Obviously that could swing back this evening i might add.

[Bobby]

Quite a big change at Day 10 on the GEFS 12z vs 06z, much more in line with the ECM and NAEFS now with a stronger cyclonic westerly flow over us, thought the 06z GEFS looked a bit dodgy

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

large scatter on the ao but nao look positive but ao a fair dip with scatter.

that's a very good neg ao index if its correct -3

Edited January 16, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[nick sussex]

Looks like the new trend to develop high pressure further north towards Svalbard is going to cause even more chaos in the modelling, certainly this is better to stop the PV from sending energy ne, overall though another day and still no real resolution to the outlook.

 

Its really whether the models have got that area of higher pressure up there correct because the NWP does have problems dealing with that region.

[Mucka]

JMA out to 84h not bad.The rest of the run will be out toward the back-end of the ECM run.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

am I correct in saying if a ao index of -3 then that beats 09/10 ao for that winter ?

[The Northern Ramper]

from whom please?do you have access to it?

John you need to stop following every model run and getting hung up by them.

[The PIT]

large scatter on the ao but nao look positive but ao a fair dip with scatter.

that's a very good neg ao index if its correct -3

Or a positive one of 1.5.

Who knows.

[Skyraker]

http://null/TWO/ensembles/

The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.

The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.

Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.

[seabreeze86]

Now this is what i call a split vortex

 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-288.png?12

 

Way out in no mans land but worth keeping an eye with such a strong ridge pushing up from the west of the US could cause the AO to tank negative. All conjecture at this point i know.

[nick sussex]

I wouldn't put it past the ECM to want to be the headline act this evening, it hates to be overshadowed! We do need a health advisory with it though, if it follows the UKMO it might well really go over the top with that pressure rise northwards, just as the GFS has a bias we have seen in recent winters a few from the ECM.

[tight isobar]

http://null/TWO/ensembles/

The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.

The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.

Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage

http://null/TWO/ensembles/

The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.

The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.

Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.

certainly wouldn't disagree with you there some real interest in develops. One feels something paramount is around the corner. ?..over to the ECM 12z.

[bluearmy]

 

I wouldn't put it past the ECM to want to be the headline act this evening, it hates to be overshadowed! We do need a health advisory with it though, if it follows the UKMO it might well really go over the top with that pressure rise northwards, just as the GFS has a bias we have seen in recent winters a few from the ECM.

 Two things to look for from ecm at T144 this evening. the aleutian low and the east coast low. how deep are they. gem has both very deep and this drives its pattern of atlantic ridge and very split vortex from the pacific side. ukmo has the aleutian low deep - it splits the vortex earlier than gem due to its earlier arctic high and different modelling of the chunks of vrotex wandering around up there. it has a shallow east coast feature - hardly apparent. ecm doesnt deepen either feature particularly on its 00z run.

[tight isobar]

http://null/TWO/ensembles/The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.

agreed, one feels something paramount may be around the corner. ! Over to ECM 12Z's.

[The Northern Ramper]

I wouldn't put it past the ECM to want to be the headline act this evening, it hates to be overshadowed! We do need a health advisory with it though, if it follows the UKMO it might well really go over the top with that pressure rise northwards, just as the GFS has a bias we have seen in recent winters a few from the ECM.

It just seems to me that since its update it has failed with blocking each time.

[terrier]

Looking at the models tonight we can obviously see why Shannon empathy has come into this. Mogreps was obviously showing 10% then 50% and now 25% on this potential easterly. Think next week we will see the block hopefully strengthen. Think feb could hopefully be a interesting month. But with volitile nature of the models at the moment anything could happen.

[Joe Levy]

Looking at the models tonight we can obviously see why Shannon empathy has come into this. Mogreps was obviously showing 10% then 50% and now 25% on this potential easterly. Think next week we will see the block hopefully strengthen. Think feb could hopefully be a interesting month. But with volitile nature of the models at the moment anything could happen.

If Shannon really had any empathy then there would be a lot less entropy haha  being pedantic of course...

Edited January 16, 2014 by Joe Levy

[SMU]

A Nice start out the blocks from the ECM

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011612/ECH1-72.GIF

 

Possible snow along the frontal boundary for the North -

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011612/ECU1-72.GIF?16-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011612/ECU0-72.GIF?16-0

 

S 

[nick sussex]

The ECM looks similar to the UKMO but a bit different with the shortwave to the north of Iceland, if that clears east quickly then the ECM might well be the star performer.

[cheeky_monkey]

am I correct in saying if a ao index of -3 then that beats 09/10 ao for that winter ?

that's the average for the whole winter of 09/10 not just a few days