Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[MR EXTREMES]

theres an awful lot of blocking across most of the models some of this blocking is looking rather tastey futher on in outputs.

[mountain shadow]

I suspect the azores high will be the spoiler there Eagle,look at the progression from 120 to 144h,suggests the energy going into the northern arm soonafter...

Yes,gets rid of that blasted azores high!!

Agreed Cecil,

 

You can also see shortwave energy spilling past Southern Greenland, which is normally a game over for Easterlies.

 

The Scand High is however proving stubborn to shift, that's for sure.

[pandit-scholar]

The GFS highlights a key concern. Any warming which does dismantle the PV, needs to clear it from southern and central Greenland at the very least, and preferably from the whole of Greenland, to allow the high pressure to build there. However this is still in FI thankfully!!

Edited January 16, 2014 by pandit-scholar

[Purga]

Added to that the METO further outlook and a recent backing away of MOGREPS from a potential easterly and its not a pretty picture.

 

Obviously with blocking to the NE there is some ambiguity but at this juncture, i'm underwhelmed....

When was this then? I understood from Fergie earlier that MOGREPS had upped the odds in favour of an easterly recently??

[Dancerwithwings]

you coudnt write it could you?low moves north east and cuts the flow off 

 

 Wouldn't worry too much past 96h... This was from five days ago, for today.

 

 

And this what we've ended up with,

 

So regarding anything that far ahead ...(low moves north east and cuts the flow off)..... DON'T WORRY

Edited January 16, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Agreed Cecil,

 

You can also see shortwave energy spilling past Southern Greenland, which is normally a game over for Easterlies.

 

The Scand High is however proving stubborn to shift, that's for sure.

Yes-i m very suprsied to see UKMO described as great,IMHO it isn't,for the reasons i have alluded too.....The block is doing its best to repel the Atlantic,but i fear it will be a losing battle,as ever,time will tell!

When was this then? I understood from Fergie earlier that MOGREPS had upped the odds in favour of an easterly recently??

Nope-its reduced the chances.

[Bobby]

When was this then? I understood from Fergie earlier that MOGREPS had upped the odds in favour of an easterly recently??

 

 

Update (just off blower to UKMO) - midnight MOGREPS-15 reduced easterly signal to circa 25% members for end of next week (so dropping back closer to expectations and in line with EC). Nonetheless, dichotomy of solutions is being watched very closely and the overriding message from Ops Centre is that the easterly solution remains very much a possibility and is by no means discounted at this juncture. Confidence low. However, rain Sat on occlusion in W Country northwards grabs the attention for now.... not good.

[fergieweather]

It's the Canadian Global Model's wholly different prognosis into further reaches that grabbed my attention. Astonishingly different outcome on every level.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

It's the Canadian Global Model's wholly different prognosis into further reaches that grabbed my attention. Astonishingly different outcome on every level.

Yes-GEM by far the better of the 12z WNP today IMO..

Much slower out of the states

[Joe Levy]

It's the Canadian Global Model's wholly different prognosis into further reaches that grabbed my attention. Astonishingly different outcome on every level.

Yes, this chart at the end of the run is rather intriguing

[LomondSnowstorm]

The Arctic High is the key to the UKMO - with the Scandi heights ridging right to the pole it makes it significantly more difficult for the jet energy to head northeast than if we were looking at a straightforward +AO pattern. Without this it wouldn't be a particularly great chart, but it's one of the few charts not in FI which has even hinted at proper HLB this winter:

[Purga]

Yes-i m very suprsied to see UKMO described as great,IMHO it isn't,for the reasons i have alluded too.....The block is doing its best to repel the Atlantic,but i fear it will be a losing battle,as ever,time will tell!

Nope-its reduced the chances.

OK I missed the latest but note that "overriding message from Ops Centre is that the easterly solution remains very much a possibility and is by no means discounted at this juncture."

Still massive uncertainty.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Purga

[Yarmy]

The low on the Eastern Seaboard kicks off the Greenland ridge at T138:

 

 

Then there's no stopping it. Small window of opportunity, so probably pretty unlikely.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z 8 day anomlay

 

[MrSunshine]

GFS 12z 8 day anomlay

 

 

Below normal temps for all but the far South of the Country. 

[johnholmes]

Yes-i m very suprsied to see UKMO described as great,IMHO it isn't,for the reasons i have alluded too.....The block is doing its best to repel the Atlantic,but i fear it will be a losing battle,as ever,time will tell!

Nope-its reduced the chances.

 

If you read the Ian F latest post you will see you are wrong

[Captain Shortwave]

So the the GFS and UKMO keep us in a stalemate, though the UKMO does have reinforcements coming across the pole from the Pacific ridge.

Note the GEM produces a much stronger Atlantic ridge and surprise surprise we hit the block winning end game with easterlies setting up shop across the UK.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

If you read the Ian F latest post you will see you are wrong

Hows that john?50%Mogreps went for the easterly yesterday,25% today...

[johnholmes]

post from Ian

ergieweather, on 16 Jan 2014 - 11:10, said:

Actually as of last night, 50% of MOGREPS members heralded an easterly by next Fri and that suite is currently exhibiting near record high levels of Shannon entropy out through day 10 onward. Given some support (albeit still minority) in EC ENS for cut-off low to SE and easterly feed, UKMO urging caution on being too prescriptive end of next week onwards, despite majority westerly solutions. In short: nothing yet discounted.

 

although you quote today is that from your own private link into it?

Edited January 16, 2014 by johnholmes

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

post from Ian

ergieweather, on 16 Jan 2014 - 11:10, said:

 

although you quote today is that from your own private link into it?

And todays...25%.

[Bobby]

GEFS 06z vs 12z mean at day 6 and day 8

 

 

 

 

Not as positive you have to say.

[Catacol]

It's the Canadian Global Model's wholly different prognosis into further reaches that grabbed my attention. Astonishingly different outcome on every level.

 

That GEM run is in line with the strat signals I alluded to earlier. Berlin run of strat at 100hPa and 70hPa suggests a signal for heights rising towards Greenland in the medium range. This was why I posted earlier that I think we might be better off seeing the atlantic win through over the next week so that we can help enhance that signal.

 

The GEM chart for 192 nails it exactly

 

 

and if the ECM suggested movement of the vortex in the lower strat towards the east come true in the same kind of time scale then a proper easterly in on the cards. Here is the 100hPa at 192 showing the core of the vortex back east.

 

 

I think its worth adding that we are now very definitely into a totally new phase of this winter because stratospheric forcings are changing substantially. There is a lot of discussion over on the Strat thread as to whether we are heading for a technically correct SSW or not... but in terms of tropospheric modelling - whether we get an SSW or not -  the next 4 - 6 weeks will be nothing like the last 4 - 6 weeks. Model uncertainty is increasing because the atlantic train is slowing substantially. Cold air coming off Canada will not be as destructive, and blocking to our east is certain now to be enhanced for the remainder of winter proper. Whether we get the perfect scenario for cold remains to be seen, but I would increasingly be tempted to discard extended GFS output as it is well known for ramping up the zonal pattern.

 

The key I think is going to be getting the wave 1 warming at the end of January to shove the vortex over to Siberia as forecast above to some extent. In that kind of scenario I would not rule out a properly cold NE blast in the first place as we turn into February.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[Bobby]

GEFS 06z vs 12z mean at day 7

 

 

 

Not as positive you have to say.

A stronger more cyclonic westerly flow.

[johnholmes]

And todays...25%.

 

from whom please?

do you have access to it?

[Mapantz]

from whom please?do you have access to it?

Here John:- http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79043-model-output-discussion-10th-jan-onwards/page-76#entry2897417Beaten to it. Edited January 16, 2014 by Mapantz