Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Very strong signal on the gfs 12z that the high to the north east is ridging further north and splitting at 114 hours??hmmm changes a foot possibly regarding heights from the arctic area!!!Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Classy looking scandi high there at 138 hrs but the low looks a bit less disrupted,dive under you know you want to!!!!!!!Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Very strong signal on the gfs 12z that the high to the north east is ridging further north and splitting at 114 hours??hmmm changes a foot possibly regarding heights from the arctic area!!!Posted Image

 

Low pressure over the Pacific side though and potentially a further ramping of the Jet as a result into Western USA, it may well be the last 7 to 10 days of January we need to focus on, judging by this GFS output. I will wait and see how others view my analysis of this NH picture and whether the other suites show the same ongoing trend. I'm NOT writing anything cold to very cold off given my experience of past winter model suite dramas but it is likely the same average state of affairs with well above rainfall trends are here to stay for the next seven to ten days.  

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

GFS 12z not looking much good at +144

 

Posted Image

 

In a westerly flow by +96

not a westerly flow at t92 very misleading post its t144 which at the moment is fi.

t92 is

Posted Image

no strong westerly flow there but the t144 yes indeed is but id be inclined to say very progressive and not in line with the ukmo model .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

look away now if your screamish gfs t144

Posted Image

unbelievable when you look at the shape and position of the high over scan!!!!Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Classy looking scandi high there at 138 hrs but the low looks a bit less disrupted,dive under you know you want to!!!!!!!Posted Image

 

At this juncture things will heavily scrutinised by the pros. North, East or West, anything goes. Posted Image

 

Edit: IanF beat me to it, it seems. Two junctures for the price of one, too. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

not a westerly flow at t92 very misleading post its t144 which at the moment is fi.

t92 is

Posted Image

no strong westerly flow there but the t144 yes indeed is but id be inclined to say very progressive and not in line with the ukmo model .

 

If it's not a westerly flow then where is it coming from??

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011612/UN120-21.GIF?16-17

 

UKMO 120 not particularly great for the UK but at least another burst of deep cold heading west into scandi with another increase in heights on its western flank

 

GFS 168 sees the easterlies piling up over the continent

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011612/gfsnh-0-174.png?12

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

unbelievable when you look at the shape and position of the high over scan!!!!Posted Image

Just wish that azores high would sink and let that low sink Southeast, Then it would be EpicPosted Image All in good time, maybe, all in good time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

GFS now pushes a nose of the Azores high way up to the NE towards Iceland bringing us an unsettled easterly flow with low pressure nearby rtowards the south and east of the UK. Will this pattern still be there this evening?Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Well the block comprises of much colder air on this run - hopefully denser and more difficult to shift!

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Purga
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

Hopefully that horror show from GFS will end up in the shredder with the Azores High the wrecking ball. 

 

My four year old has known only cold, snowy winters and keeps asking me when it will snow.

 

Hopefully UKMO at 144 is a trendsetter. All eyes on the ECM

 

See you this evening. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't look like the Atlantic is going to play ball on GFS12Z unfortunately-

UKMO doesn't light any fires for me this evening either if i were being honest.

Its great to see a decent block to the north east but with the PV as it is and the huge temp gradient off the Eastern seaboard feeding a rampant jet i cant see anything from the east for the forseeable.

Added to that the METO further outlook and a recent backing away of MOGREPS from a potential easterly and its not a pretty picture.

 

Obviously with blocking to the NE there is some ambiguity but at this juncture, i'm underwhelmed....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Yes GFS 12z being GFS 12z basically. I will be more interested in how much blocking is around within the ensembles at day 10.

 

GEM offers something better anyway.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Half decent UKMO at 144 hrs. Good ECM ahead? GFS is meh.

 

 

Posted Image

I suspect the azores high will be the spoiler there Eagle,look at the progression from 120 to 144h,suggests the energy going into the northern arm soonafter...

Yes GFS 12z being GFS 12z basically. I will be more interested in how much blocking is around within the ensembles at day 10.

 

GEM offers something better anyway.

 

Posted Image

Yes,gets rid of that blasted azores high!! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...