Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Nick F]

I was obviously too hasty to bury the easterly idea yesterday morning, Jo F even mentioned that the MetO was going for <10% for an easterly too - which swayed me. But looking at the UKMO GM raw and the ECM this morning, the block to the NE isn't going far and all it needed was an adjustment further west of the of NW to SE aligned jet on the UKMO and EC for the easterly potential to come back again.

 

Think I'll still join John on the fence for now though - trying not to get led by every new suite of outputs. But this is turning into an interesting, if at times, frustratingly long-drawn out journey on the models, as we see Atlantic upper westerly flow come up against blocking to the northeast, with minor adjustments in the disrupting flow making all the difference on the ground.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Nick F

[Timmytour]

So....the T132 becomes T126.....and we see a continuing improvement in the position with a greater pooling of cold air and a further restraint in the eastward movement from the Atlantic

onto T120 and T114 now - because I wasn't going to get up in time to do T120 - and this is what we have...

It's back to square one.........a little progress upto and including T120, but then the Atlantic looks to have been a little bit more assertive and the cold pool is dwindling.....

Edited January 16, 2014 by Timmytour

[Bogman]

Ha, a dog chasing it's tail.

[Yarmy]

I daresay the next frame after this would be something to write home about:

 

 

 

Anyway, back to reality and the block again holds out a little longer before sinking East.

[Dancerwithwings]

At 384h, That would be a nice start to February! If only ......Still would love to see 396h.

 

Yarmy, You beat me too it

Edited January 16, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

06Z shows us perilously close to a snow event or two in the medium range,the signal for snow across more elevated northern areas is reasonable this morning.

PV still looks very strong though and a westerly regime still looks favourite as we hit the back end of Jan IMHO.

[mike Meehan]

We see now that the Scandy temps are now falling to normal winter levels but such is the fickle nature of the beasterlies, the cold ones appear to be over SW Norway and in the big scheme of things only a short distance from the UK - it is obviously the scene of a battle but as to which side will win - who knows?

 

If it carries on like this I will be looking forward very much to the warmer temps of Spring, or will the northerlies creep in and give us a cooler Spring than Winter?

[shaky]

Ecm mean looks a lot better today especially around the 144-168 hour timeframe!!more of an undercut showing compared to the previous mean charts over the past couple of days!!

[mike Meehan]

I daresay the next frame after this would be something to write home about:

 

 

 

Anyway, back to reality and the block again holds out a little longer before sinking East.

That chart is all very well for those hard men who wear skirts without underpants but it ain't doing so much for us soft southerners

[mcweather]

Is that a split vortex we are looking at on the gfs 06z  at 384?

 

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2014 by mcweather

[fergieweather]

Agree this! that is why I'm keeping my powder dry and not getting suckered into too much false optimism. METO reckon there is less than 10% chance of a cold shot from the east so whilst there is a vague chance the odds are well against it.

Actually as of last night, 50% of MOGREPS members heralded an easterly by next Fri and that suite is currently exhibiting near record high levels of Shannon entropy out through day 10 onward. Given some support (albeit still minority) in EC ENS for cut-off low to SE and easterly feed, UKMO urging caution on being too prescriptive end of next week onwards, despite majority westerly solutions. In short: nothing yet discounted.

[Yarmy]

That chart is all very well for those hard men who wear skirts without underpants but it ain't doing so much for us soft southerners

 

Well the next frame would hopefully see everything move South as the Greenie high sets in, but really this is like discussing what tactics Norwich will use when they get to the Champions League final.

[dbaloo]

Well the next frame would hopefully see everything move South as the Greenie high sets in, but really this is like discussing what tactics Norwich will use when they get to the Champions League final.

11 men behind the ball and hope the other team doesn't turn up!!!

[Troubleatmill]

Well the next frame would hopefully see everything move South as the Greenie high sets in, but really this is like discussing what tactics Norwich will use when they get to the Champions League final.

 

Lol! we need a Chris Sutton for that

[bluearmy]

 

Actually as of last night, 50% of MOGREPS members heralded an easterly by next Fri and that suite is currently exhibiting near record high levels of Shannon entropy out through day 10 onward. Given some support (albeit still minority) in EC ENS for cut-off low to SE and easterly feed, UKMO urging caution on being too prescriptive end of next week onwards, despite majority westerly solutions. In short: nothing yet discounted.

 i'm trying to remember what happened last time we had 'near record levels shannon entropy' ian. the possible cold solution imploded or we got decent snowfall. i think it was the latter but i could be mistaken.

[kumquat]

onto T120 and T114 now - because I wasn't going to get up in time to do T120 - and this is what we have...

It's back to square one.........a little progress upto and including T120, but then the Atlantic looks to have been a little bit more assertive and the cold pool is dwindling.....

 

Actually, there are positives there in the deeper colder uppers expanding westwards vigourously towards the Baltic Sea.

[MR EXTREMES]

I was obviously too hasty to bury the easterly idea yesterday morning, Jo F even mentioned that the MetO was going for <10% for an easterly too - which swayed me. But looking at the UKMO GM raw and the ECM this morning, the block to the NE isn't going far and all it needed was an adjustment further west of the of NW to SE aligned jet on the UKMO and EC for the easterly potential to come back again.

 

Think I'll still join John on the fence for now though - trying not to get led by every new suite of outputs. But this is turning into an interesting, if at times, frustratingly long-drawn out journey on the models, as we see Atlantic upper westerly flow come up against blocking to the northeast, with minor adjustments in the disrupting flow making all the difference on the ground.

me to and I was shocked when I read your post yesterday to hear you give up on the idea sent me into its all over mode.

which only adds that I respect your experience and forecast to a very high degree,

 

but it must be noted that none of this easterly outputs are yet with in a close enough timeframe to get excited about!.

 

so there for your post yesterday still stands as a post that could well still be valid until we see this evolution into a much closer timeframe as shortwave drama is far from over in fact up until t48 hrs can still throw up a complete collapse of the over all pattern.

 

but it will be interesting to see if the ecm or other models have been handling this evolution the best for future reference, although to be fair the wobbles of the models recently are only a symptom of a rouge shortwave or under or over amplification of heights or low pressure systems,

but over all it will still be interesting to see which model if they are now getting a better grip of the evolution was in fact the closest and best.....

 

although my nerves are rather shredded and will be highly disappointed if 2013/14 ends up with not a single snowflake here in the south!

 

because the last 4 years or so have had at least one decent snowy spell it would be the first year for sometime as a 80s winter fanatic I started to believe we were heading back into the same sort of direction, of coarse now we have netweather and model charts to make things a little more exciting but I for one am exhausted at the flip flops.

 

although today there really is still hope.

[mcweather]

   i'm trying to remember what happened last time we had 'near record levels shannon entropy' ian. the possible cold solution imploded or we got decent snowfall. i think it was the latter but i could be mistaken.

 

As I remember it  BA the last time we had such levels of shannon entropy was in advance of last Januarys cold and snowy spell.

[bradymk]

  i'm trying to remember what happened last time we had 'near record levels shannon entropy' ian. the possible cold solution imploded or we got decent snowfall. i think it was the latter but i could be mistaken.

seem to think it was this time last year. The words Shannon entropy and trough disruption are definitely a match though.

[johnholmes]

another pdf from me, showing how the 500mb pattern this morning compares to the prediction 6-10 days ago and what can we deduce for the future?

 

What is the upper air pattern today_16 jan_ compared to the 10 day prediction.pdf

[Steady Easterly]

I was obviously too hasty to bury the easterly idea yesterday morning, Jo F even mentioned that the MetO was going for <10% for an easterly too - which swayed me. But looking at the UKMO GM raw and the ECM this morning, the block to the NE isn't going far and all it needed was an adjustment further west of the of NW to SE aligned jet on the UKMO and EC for the easterly potential to come back again.

 

Think I'll still join John on the fence for now though - trying not to get led by every new suite of outputs. But this is turning into an interesting, if at times, frustratingly long-drawn out journey on the models, as we see Atlantic upper westerly flow come up against blocking to the northeast, with minor adjustments in the disrupting flow making all the difference on the ground.

We are very close to a cold outbreak from the E-NE, as is usual for the UK we are on the boundry of two airmasses, history is littered with such synoptics at this time of year especially, and history is also littered with forecasts saying the atlantic will come rushing in only for the block to the E/NE to hold firm and strengthen because the block is nearly always underestimated,the pv is lifting out naturally now and so the north Atlantic is slowly running out of power, i would be surprised if we are not in our first significant cold period of weather by the months end.

[johnholmes]

Actually as of last night, 50% of MOGREPS members heralded an easterly by next Fri and that suite is currently exhibiting near record high levels of Shannon entropy out through day 10 onward. Given some support (albeit still minority) in EC ENS for cut-off low to SE and easterly feed, UKMO urging caution on being too prescriptive end of next week onwards, despite majority westerly solutions. In short: nothing yet discounted.

 

That is quite a change Ian, correct me if I am quoting wrongly, but Jo suggested that <10% showed that on the 00z run?

Is it normal, if my comment is correct, for MOGREPS to show such large swings in such a short time. Second question is how much credence does the senior man at Exeter give to this suite?

[russell k]

Well the next frame would hopefully see everything move South as the Greenie high sets in, but really this is like discussing what tactics Norwich will use when they get to the Champions League final.

Made me laugh, great quote

[Purga]

That chart is all very well for those hard men who wear skirts without underpants but it ain't doing so much for us soft southerners

You obviously haven't been to Brighton recently!

[mulzy]

Some interesting members in the extended range of the 06z GFS ensemble suite. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1