Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Downpour]

For me the worrisome factor about ECM is the way it puts the clampers on the Atlantic, which has been a formidable opponent so far this winter. That said late January does often herald a quietening of the Pest so I suppose it is not without some historical support.

More runs needed

[Ali1977]

Winter 1947 started on the 21st of Jan, so would winter 2014 if that ECM was right .....

[bluearmy]

 

as far as an easterly is concerned, the issue remains the uppers and the temp on the continent. it takes an enormous leap of faith to imagine the models finding a solution that will advect deep cold uppers this way.

 this from just an hour ago !!!!!!that makes the 12z ecm op the 'leap of faith' run as opposed to 'that ecm' !!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Blimey , this is the last thing I expected to see, certainly not for it to develop into the easterly it has, but we have to be realistic , it's unlikely , but not impossible , we can have a scandi high with a strong vortex , if we can dig as much energy southeast under the block that would really be the best we can hope for .

Regarding the uppers , I wouldn't worry too much because the upper air pattern can only be took seriously within the 72hr time line , it doesn't take much for Europe to become very cold , upper air can cool over the continent in an instant , with no sun strength , home grown cold can build , Iv saw it at times in the past , given the right Synoptics we would have to pretty unlucky to have uppers above -3 in an easterly flow in the last wk 3rd of jan!

As ever . . . More runs needed !!

[Stuie]

Split in the vortex to finish from the ECM. Somebody posted that scenario a couple of days ago which maybe the reason Shannon Entropy is touted.

[cooling climate]

The t240 chart lol. Wake Mr Murr up somebody. A nice dumping of snow for southern and western

areas I would of thought. Seriously I wonder if Ian F and a few pals are avin a laugh at our expense.

I really can not see anyone taking this run seriously surely.

[snowmadchrisuk]

  of course its possible tim but the question we have to ask ourselves is 'looking at all the other models, and the previous run of the ecm, is it likely'? by tomorrow, the other modelling may have changed in which case our viewpoint might also. i did say it is not plausible. that is in the context of all the nwp at 7pm on the 13th jan.the best news tonight is the ukmo at day 6. the ecm latter stages are just another variation from the wide spread avilable in the ensembles over the past few days. good that it sort of follows the trends from the previous two runs but surely it takes them a step too far with its modelling of the atlantic profile post day 6 ?i hope that come tomorrow, i am signing a different tune and perhaps after the ens i might also !!

Hi BA , If we go through the Archives (I haven't got time now) but in past Easterly's at this time of year, haven't we often seen we have gone from a raging Atlantic to a Cold Easterly in a matter of 3 or 4 days ... So based on that would say it is a quite possible it could be on the right tracks, let's hope the other models or ensembles start moving in this direction over the next 24 hours . 

[ANYWEATHER]

Just goes to show that the Battle is still ready to commence , as been mentioned a few days ago, theres a lot of bottled up cold to the North East, it basically takes a simple step in the case of the Ecm to filter cold conditions Westwards.....   

[phil nw.]

  of course its possible tim but the question we have to ask ourselves is 'looking at all the other models, and the previous run of the ecm, is it likely'? by tomorrow, the other modelling may have changed in which case our viewpoint might also. i did say it is not plausible. that is in the context of all the nwp at 7pm on the 13th jan.the best news tonight is the ukmo at day 6. the ecm latter stages are just another variation from the wide spread avilable in the ensembles over the past few days. good that it sort of follows the trends from the previous two runs but surely it takes them a step too far with its modelling of the atlantic profile post day 6 ?i hope that come tomorrow, i am signing a different tune and perhaps after the ens i might also !!

ECM may be a bit bullish reasserting the block like that Nick but the general trend in all the runs since yesterday has been to halt the se demise of the blocking and hold the trough over the Uk as it disrupts.

I noticed too the gradual drawing back of the Greenland vortex all signs of the reluctance of the pattern to push east.

I think with the decreasing zonal winds forecast this gives this trend more credence than the earlier easterly. attempt forecasted for this week.

[damianslaw]

Looking at the Jetstream forecasts - its no surprise to see the models sending energy SE into Europe - the Jetstream is forecast to take a nose dive into North Africa - and it is a wavy flow.

 

All models are in agreement of low pressure splitting in situ as it is forced unstuck against the high pressure block to our NE - it can either languish where it is, or move westwards or southeastwards.

 

However, as others have commented, uppers are preety high over scandi thanks to the lack of long lasting cold pooling - so if we do manage to tap into a continental feed it doesn't look a particularly cold feed - at least initially, at this time of year it doesn't take too long for deep cold pooling under stagnant conditions.

 

I am remembering back to this exact date last year - when we saw the start of a very decent 2 week cold snowy spell with synoptics not actually too far off what some models are predicting later this week, but unlike last year, the trough is to close for comfort, there is much less cold pooling to our NE and the jet is much more active.

 

We are now approaching what I call 'core peak winter period' roughly from about 18th Jan - 15th Feb, when we are most likely to see our coldest conditions. I'm quite encouraged by upstream developments at present, and I suspect the atlantic is now moving 'down the gears'.. I'll be very surprised if we get to the end of February and we haven't had at least a few days of cold conditions with a bit of snow.

[fergieweather]

As I mentioned earlier over weekend: with cold reservoir to NE and 15% MOGREPS offering colder easterly at surface into trend period, it remains the minority likely outcome but can't be discounted.

As the phrase goes: The models are never wrong. Only the weather is.

In other words, even the 12z ECM DET cannot be wholly discounted and not least at this tentative range.

[snowice]

you all know what to do now?

 

Don`t tell any friends that the cold spell is back on

 

Tell yourself not to look at the 18z later but to have a sneaky look!

 

And when you check back later and see 999 users try and not go Bananas

[Duane S.]

Quite bizarre. Right or wrong, I have never seen such juicy 500hpa charts in January with such poor associated 850s. However I do believe if (and that is still a BIG if) the ECM is onto something, colder temps than are generally being shown would end up being advected towards us and, if the block (ummm... that hasn't even formed yet) could hold, advect over the UK. I am not in the least bothered about it though, if we can get in a setup similar to that of the ECM Op, there is no reason not to be hopeful that the cold would not follow. Eventually!

 

Somebody posted earlier the ECM looks a bit suspect late on, not sure if this is what the poster was refering to but this doesn't look right to me following on from +144, then +168...

 

However... the very fact the ECM Op has shown such an interest to bring in an Easterly of sorts (for 3rd / 4th consecutive run now?) and is the best output of the lot tonight, along with the very promising UKMO 12z which is much less progressive than its recent showings, ought to increase optimisim amongst all coldies tonight. The GFS? Well, it's the GFS. Not overly concerned that isn't on board and no doubt it has been doing its usual baby steps back to the Euros. Remember, the GFS hardly EVER does a massive jump, one way or the other.

 

Big test for the ECM here now. It hasn't exactly covered itself in glory this winter (and I am one of its biggest fans), if this turns out to be another phantom Easterly, its reputation, fairly or not, will be become tarnished a tad further as a result. And it wouldn't be without some justification as well.

Edited January 13, 2014 by s4lancia

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst it may be true that the models have handled the block to our north east badly, the same could be said for any return to zonal westerlies. The models are struggling on both fronts here. Every model easterly gets removed, but also every zonal output suffers the same fate with the UK eventually trapped in a slow moving deep trough with low pressure pushing through the UK. 

I just hope that the block wins here.

[Downpour]

Tonight's ECM can only mean one thing...

That's right I'm forecasting at T240hrs a Noahesque monsoon with near-hurricane winds from tonight's pub run!

[Cloud 10]

   

this from just an hour ago !!!!!!

that makes the 12z ecm op the 'leap of faith' run as opposed to 'that ecm' !!!

 

 

Leap of Faith 

 

 

Not much to not like on the ECM op run this evening,and a refreshing change to see

the bulk of the PV on our side of the hemisphere.

 

[nick sussex]

SOME VERY GOOD NEWS FROM NCEP!

 

Well I have some good news from upstream and this is perhaps even better than tonights ECM output because it gives us a broader picture of what solutions we can put faith in, of course if NCEP are right!

 

LATER UPSTREAM...NOAM FLOW AMPLIFCATION HEADING INTO AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS WELL SUPPORTED AS A STEADY FLOW OF LIFTING
ERN/NERN PACIFIC LOWS ACTS TO BUILD A DOWNSTREAM WRN NOAM RIDGE
ALOFT.  THIS SEEMS TO FAVOR NOAM SOLUTIONS INCREASINGLY ON THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT WITH A WARMING MEAN WRN NOAM
RIDGE AND COOLING ERN NOAM TROUGH COUPLET.

 

And this:

 

THIS WPC
SOLUTION LEADS TO A MAIN WEATHER FOCUS/LIMITED PCPN POTENTIAL AS
PER SEWD DIGGING IMPULSES INTO AN EMERGING ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH POSITION..

 

That's important because as these shortwaves dig se into the trough this will help to keep it further to the nw.

 

The full discussion is here:

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

 

They aslo mention that they think the GFS is too fast aswell as its GEFS, they think the ECM might be a bit too slow and were happy to go with the ECM/UKMO blend for upstream, thats fine especially as the Euros have cemented the slower trend.

[TSNWK]

As I mentioned earlier over weekend: with cold reservoir to NE and 15% MOGREPS offering colder easterly at surface into trend period, it remains the minority likely outcome but can't be discounted. As the phrase goes: The models are never wrong. Only the weather is.In other words, even the 12z ECM DET cannot be wholly discounted and not least at this tentative range.

Good evening Ian, the 15% of MOGREPS offering the colder solution were from the weekend runs? Does MOGREPS run daily? or does it run at a simalar frequency as let's say EC32. If daily then would it be approriate to advise on what percentage were offering the colder solution on today's run.Cheers. Edited January 13, 2014 by TSNWK

[Man With Beard]

the NH pattern on 12z is very similar to 00z but about 800 miles further west. given the strength of the jet off the eastern seaboard at the time that the ridge makes its push west, thats quite a leap of faith. carinthian at the controls ?

Do you think it's more a matter of timing and angle of attack from the west? I always think that when High Pressure (lower & upper) sets in over northern Europe at this time of year (and of course, it isn't even there yet), it's actually the High which ends up calling the shots rather than the Atlantic.

 

Year after year, I feel, we end up with easterlies that begin as absolutely nothing, because the models always seem to favour the Atlantic over a North European High around T192+, but the models end up getting it wrong as much as they get it right, and sometimes hey presto we get a bonus easterly like the one seen here on the ECM. 

 

On the ECM, the main low has already stalled and secondary lows are throwing all the movement through the southern arm of the main low - it seems entirely plausible to me that the secondary low could pull the main low through with it, leading to a big gap where the main low came from, ready for a hungry Scandi High to push westwards into. 

 

The last two frames of the ECM prove the point many having been trying to make about uppers - get the right synoptics in and you'll create your own cold pool given a few days. It wouldn't happen in late November or late February, but it would definitely happen in mid-January.

 

Whether this comes off or not, in my very non-expert opinion, depends on the timing of how the secondary lows come around the main low. They need to time it just right to drag the main low with them - and of course, the Scandi High needs to be appropriately positioned to captialise. Not too much to ask then!!

 

But since the models are so poor at easterlies, I fear this will need to get to T96 before any confidence can be raised. I would say this though, the ECM may have failed to predict Dec 2012 correctly, but it did nail easterlies in Feb and March 2013 from long distance, so there is some track record there.

[Downpour]

Quite bizarre. Right or wrong, I have never seen such juicy 500hpa charts in January with such poor associated 850s. However I do believe if (and that is still a BIG if) the ECM is onto something, colder temps than are generally being shown would end up being advected towards us and, if the block (ummm... that hasn't even formed yet) could hold, advect over the UK. I am not in the least bothered about it though, if we can get in a setup similar to that of the ECM Op, there is no reason not to be hopeful that the cold would not follow. Eventually!

 

Somebody posted earlier the ECM looks a bit suspect late on, not sure if this is what the poster was refering to but this doesn't look right to me following on from +144, then +168...

Recm1921.png

 

However... the very fact the ECM Op has shown such an interest to bring in an Easterly of sorts (for 3rd / 4th consecutive run now?) and is the best output of the lot tonight, along with the very promising UKMO 12z which is much less progressive than its recent showings, ought to increase optimisim amongst all coldies tonight. The GFS? Well, it's the GFS. Not overly concerned that isn't on board and no doubt it has been doing its usual baby steps back to the Euros. Remember, the GFS hardly EVER does a massive jump, one way or the other.

 

Big test for the ECM here now. It hasn't exactly covered itself in glory this winter (and I am one of its biggest fans), if this turns out to be another phantom Easterly, its reputation, fairly or not, will be become tarnished a tad further as a result. And it wouldn't be without some justification as well.

Indeed so. ECM on the naughty step. Can it tidy its bedroom up and lay the table at last?

[Bobby]

How many times has the ECM lead us up the garden path with a phantom easterly? With little to no support from anywhere else I find it hard to believe, but maybe it has picked up something the other models haven't, it has been a few runs now. Don't get your hopes up anyway is my advice until we see some support from the other models.

[Duane S.]

Hi BA , If we go through the Archives (I haven't got time now) but in past Easterly's at this time of year, haven't we often seen we have gone from a raging Atlantic to a Cold Easterly in a matter of 3 or 4 days ... So based on that would say it is a quite possible it could be on the right tracks, let's hope the other models or ensembles start moving in this direction over the next 24 hours . 

 

That is a pertinent point. Feb/March is often a different story but January, aka this year, even with the main vortex heading off away from Greenland, there is still so much residual 'energy' left in the NW Atlantic, unless we can get a perfect slider synoptic setup (which this is not and unlikely to be), any Easterly that does emerge, logically, would likely be a long, fraught and drawn out affair!

[Mucka]

ECM is not completely on its own as JMA is not too far away in the important phase and splits energy much like ECM.

120h comparison JMA/ECM

 

 

It just isn't quite as effective as the ECM undercut or so conducive to it upstream and goes on to send more energy NE.

 

 

[West is Best]

Blimey. I don't think I have ever seen such a dramatic GFS vs ECM at such short range. This is pistols at dawn stuff, East vs West. Screen shot these pictures and remind yourself in a few days because they can't both be right.

 

Whichever one has got this wrong, and I'm bound to say I have very little confidence left in the ECM, deserves to lose its place in the upper echelons of models.

Edited January 13, 2014 by West is Best

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

 

 

 

Not much to not like on the ECM op run this evening,and a refreshing change to see

the bulk of the PV on our side of the hemisphere.

 

ECH1-240.gif

I know I really shouldn't say this because il give myself a stroke at the age of 30 lol . . . But that chart there you feel if the ECM carried on , you would get the vortex drop down the eastern edge of the high , bringing brutally cold uppers with it , once that low drops into Eastern Europe/Russia , you would see very very cold uppers (talking -20 850's!!!) move along the bottom of the high pressure , with ? You've guessed it . . . Our name on it !!