Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[West is Best]

To be honest if the 0z overnight runs continue the 12z and now 18z GFS theme then I think it's game over for this spell. The corridor of uncertainty is around the current T120 period, but this feels like a case of deja vu from years ago when Stratos Ferric used to refer to the lows off Newfoundland driving through like a coach and horses and that dreaded term 'cyclogenesis' emerged. It's all there again because, basically, there's no upstream amplification and hence blocking. Just my amateurish take on it, but we're going to have to wait a while longer it seems.

[Panayiotis]

@Cloud10 thats the 00z NASA, the 12z comes out ~11:30pm

[Joe Levy]

The SSW shown on the 12z GFS is still there and perhaps even more powerful on the 18z. This chart is from right at the end of the run, however it actually starts to appear slightly earlier than on the 12z, I am just demonstrating it at its peak which so happens to be at 384hours.

[Cloud 10]

@Cloud10 thats the 00z NASA, the 12z comes out ~11:30pm

 

Yeah i know,it was the best i could find!

[Snowman31]

edit

Edited January 12, 2014 by Snowman31

[Timmytour]

I've been still hoping for a flip back in the models to bring the easterly in for late in this week coming, but time's running out now.Even the Daily Express has given up! It mentions "Rain" on its front page tomorrow!!

[mulzy]

I've been still hoping for a flip back in the models to bring the easterly in for late in this week coming, but time's running out now.Even the Daily Express has given up! It mentions "Rain" on its front page tomorrow!!

 

The Daily Express giving up on cold is cracking news for us coldies!

[nick sussex]

I've been still hoping for a flip back in the models to bring the easterly in for late in this week coming, but time's running out now.Even the Daily Express has given up! It mentions "Rain" on its front page tomorrow!!

If that says rain then you'd better get the sledge out! I think the easterlies not going to happen in terms of bringing what people want, theres a chance of a briefish weaker easterly if the trough splits but it won't be able to tap into the deep cold as thats being held much further to the east.

 

Depending on the trough disruption there is still a chance of something wintry, either with a sharper trough heading se to the west which may get just enough surface cold in from the se to bring some snow, but that needs much more amplification upstream and the high to not get pushed too far south.

 

The other possible solution is the ECM split trough, with a slack flow and some precip that could bring something but overall I think we have to limit expectations.

 

The trend of the last few days has all been downwards in terms of cold until the pick up this evening, but sadly I do think at this time we've missed the boat to get any deep cold in from the east.

[Blake]

ECM and GFS in unison for next weekend/Monday splitting the low and sending it S/SE?

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

Could get a short cold snap with some gentle SE/E'erly? Potential for any wintriness anyone?

 

Hopefully the HP can re-establish itself to the north eventually!

[ARNOTT ad]

ECM and GFS in unison for next weekend/Monday splitting the low and sending it S/SE?

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

Could get a short cold snap with some gentle SE/E'erly? Potential for any wintriness anyone?

 

Hopefully the HP can re-establish itself to the north eventually!

Hmm that's interesting

[Blake]

GEM and JMA also keen on the idea of the LP splitting and sinking south but a little earlier, the latter with a larger part of the LP sinking south than the other models.

 

GEM

 

 

JMA

 

Edited January 13, 2014 by GUWeather

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

If only the ECM was right, we 'd get an easterly in a week... (Uppers aren't much but hey!)

[bluearmy]

crazy - the ECM is again a sypnotic winter snow maker , yet here we are in mid jan and Europe isn't cold enough to deliver a sub zero surface undercut. Coud be quite close come the time if these charts were to verify. Anyway, enough gefs members singing a similar tune to make the solution reasonable, especially given the consistency from yesterdays 12z and that it was the favoured evolution up til Saturday night.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I thought the easterly was dead and buried!

Looks like the ECM wants to run with one last greatest hits tour!

[tight isobar]

crazy - the ECM is again a sypnotic winter snow maker , yet here we are in mid jan and Europe isn't cold enough to deliver a sub zero surface undercut. Coud be quite close come the time if these charts were to verify. Anyway, enough gefs members singing a similar tune to make the solution reasonable, especially given the consistency from yesterdays 12z and that it was the favoured evolution up til Saturday night.

however, should we get onboard with current synoptics I feel the depth of cold to the east(850hpa) ,will be of greater intensity. Anyway things as thought becoming interesting.

I thought the easterly was dead and buried! Looks like the ECM wants to run with one last greatest hits tour!

some thought easterly was, some didn't! !!

[tight isobar]

A re-run per frame 00z ECM is more than feasible throughout. Imo

A re-run per frame 00z ECM is more than feasible throughout. Imo

in its evolution.

[Snowman.]

I'm going to say this again don't get yourself hung up on anything the models are showing this goes for all models if the GFS is zonal by 192 don't believe it just because it's zonal doesn't mean it's right if the ECM shows an easterly by 192 don't believe it!

Edited January 13, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[tight isobar]

I'm going to say this again don't get yourself hung up on anything the models are showing this goes for all models if the GFS is zonal by 192 don't believe it just because it's zonal doesn't mean it's right if the ECM shows an easterly by 192 don't believe it!

on the same token I'll say this again with previous/current synoptics dont discount anything either.

[Fred Sykes]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gifIf only the ECM was right, we 'd get an easterly in a week... (Uppers aren't much but hey!)

Hardly what I call an Easterly, but I'd take that right now.

[Mark Parsons]

Hardly what I call an Easterly, but I'd take that right now.

Yeah hardly a true easterly but maybe not so mild, however with there not much cold about its going to be a continuation of the straw clutching club for the time being.

[Tim Bland]

Beggars can't be choosers. I suspect ECM is the best we can hope for. Just frustrating that the uppers aren't a couple of degrees lower.

[SLEETY]

I thought the easterly was dead and buried!

Looks like the ECM wants to run with one last greatest hits tour!

well thats what I  thought yesterday,considering most people were screaming from the rooftops that their was no chance of an easterly now

models are making fools of everyone

perhaps their is too much reliance on computer models these days,but they just can't handle blocking to the NE , it's still no better than 20 years ago all those millions spent on computers as well

 

probably be a full blown  easterly now.

Edited January 13, 2014 by SLEETY

[shedhead]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gifIf only the ECM was right, we 'd get an easterly in a week... (Uppers aren't much but hey!)

Wouldn't mind a tenner for every time I'd heard or seen this said GP. Easterlies modelled post T+144hrs probably fail to materialise 9 times out of 10, so whilst it's encouraging to see ECM has not given up completely on the idea I think it's prudent to assume it won't happen at this stage. That said we are now entering a period where the synoptics will be much more favourable than they have been all winter for this type of set up to develop, with what look like small short term changes possibly resulting in large term implication farther down the line, so if nothing else we do at least now have some interest/potential.

Edited January 13, 2014 by shedhead

[tight isobar]

Beggars can't be choosers. I suspect ECM is the best we can hope for. Just frustrating that the uppers aren't a couple of degrees lower.

we have as equal chance of those uppers to the east, being markedly down , to any proposed easterly.whether slack flow or otherwise.alls in the balance as again!

[snowbob]

Forgive me if I'm wrong

But last nights fax showed the ECM was onto something

That's got to hold some water.

I believe the 12s will shed more light on this