Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

we're not really in "the bad old days" though. getting snow in this country is like the lottery- the jackpot would be 1962/63.

watching the models is like watching the lottery numbers roll out. you hope but in reality, you know you're going to be at work on monday.

 

the occasional tenner would be nice though!

I know where Tim is coming from as December and the first 11 days of this month are following a similar path, what we did see in the bad old days was a block to our East wit sub zero temps whilst we where on the outside looking in. Of course there's still plenty of time for things to change and as others have posted the upstream pattern is far more favourable now that what it was, for me though we need to see this taking effect by the months end or we maybe looking at continuous FI charts showing the next close but no cigar scenario.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well normally they are miles apart at T216 but tonight we have ECM op & mean and GEFS mean pretty close together, with the GFS op not a million miles away either:

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by rjbw
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Out to day 6 and all models forecast a firmly cyclonic, maritime pattern which will see the first 18 days of January written off.

 

Division at day 10 but nothing indicating anything stellar.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Early differences in the early frames of the 18z which might become significant further down the line.BTW anyone know how i change my viewing of it on netweather?  I'm looking at the SLP and the 850pa maps, but instead of being side-by-side, my second choice is below my first choice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Just a quick question...Does this type of 'energy' have units?

For what it's worth, OldMetMan used the term in an analysis yesterday. Maybe he picked it up here :-) Edited by Yarmy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

That is a monster block building to our east, I can see it holding and influencing our weather in the near future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

18z has lost all signs of Easterly early on....time to look FI I think and start again!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

18z might be going under guys!! 

Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

18z far more progressive at an early stage.

 

Posted Image

 

We don't want any bad dreams tonight so best look away..Posted Image

Edited by Purga
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

I know where Tim is coming from as December and the first 11 days of this month are following a similar path, what we did see in the bad old days was a block to our East wit sub zero temps whilst we where on the outside looking in. Of course there's still plenty of time for things to change and as others have posted the upstream pattern is far more favourable now that what it was, for me though we need to see this taking effect by the months end or we maybe looking at continuous FI charts showing the next close but no cigar scenario.

 

yep, i agree. we've been seeing "potential" in the charts for weeks now. there is apparently an SSW brewing in possibly a week or maybe two. by the time its effects filter down to real time, (which could be another two weeks later) we are looking at the end of february. even then it might not fall favourably. by the time the ideal winter synoptics appear, it could be june at this rate!.

 

still, we're not even half way into winter yet and as we all know, the models try to predict what might happen, not what actually will happen.

what does happen is often a completely different story.......

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Posted Image

Previous run

Posted Image

Right

Bad - The core of the Scandi high is slightly further away from the UK

That's it

Good

-Deeper low over Russia supporting the high

-Better westwards push of WAA from the main area of heights

- Deeper low exiting Newfoundland = more amplified Atlantic ridge

 

Result - more energy going south east into Europe

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Not pleased about the amount of stalling rain bearing fronts that are just going to exacerbate existing flood warnings and flooded areas :( 

I'd just like to see a nice crisp easterly set up to at least dry the soddened areas out. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

and for those of you watching in black and white, the pink is next to the green..........Posted Image

Posted Image Posted Image post of the day for me!!!Anyway 18z looks like the low at 120 hrs  is further south ie 12 z.will it move south east and disrupt ???

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Chance of a decent easterly on the 18z if the azores and scandi high link at a higher lattitude.

 

Posted Imagegfsnh-0-132.png

not on the first attempt but that low over Southern Greenland should drop into the Iberian trough, the Steve Murr antichrist shortwave is also pulling away, so it might take a second bite of the cherry to get this.

Posted Image

Off course what are the chances of the GFS ballsing this up :p

 

I will however be interested to see if any ensembles go for a stronger Atlantic ridge at day 5 by deepening that low coming off Newfoundland.

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

What I have observed over the past 2 days is remarkable consistency (in relative cross-model terms) of the outer extent of the westward ridging of the Scandi high, sitting smack off the coast of Norway for around the 17th. Almost too consistent in line with extent of the chopping and changing we have seen

 

[post-5114-0-21432700-1389479045_thumb.pn

post-5114-0-89194600-1389479500_thumb.pn

post-5114-0-15891600-1389479505_thumb.pn

post-5114-0-03069400-1389479521_thumb.pn

Edited by s4lancia
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

ZZZZZZZ!!!!

 

Jeez I'm beginning to wonder whether theres a conspiracy between the global NWP to just deliver every possible roadblock to the high moving west, the trough takes so long to disrupt and then just when you think the high might split it and ridge over the top the next low moves in and phases with the limpet trough!

 

You need it ridging over the top before the next low, that would then force more energy to head se.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Until we get some positives off the meto it's hard to get excited thinking this Might come off.

fingers are crossed for next mogreps to be good news!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

What I have observed over the past 2 days is remarkable consistency (in relative cross-model terms) of the outer extent of the westward ridging of the Scandi high, sitting smack off the coast of Norway for around the 17th. Almost too consistent in line with extent of the chopping and changing we have seen

 

Posted ImageRecm1441.gif

Posted ImageRgem1321.gif

Posted ImageRjma1201.gif

Posted ImageRtavn1261.png

 

Yes!

 

Its most noticeable on the ECM 12z,

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP

 

Looks like groundhog day for Norway from 72-240 hrs!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

After a ropey start the GFS got the high into a good position facing head on to the limpet trough, this is what we wanted, at least this didn't follow the UKMO raw output which is a crumb of comfort, I may have lost it completely had that been the case.

 

I may for the next few runs just post from the moan thread because this is turning into an incredibly frustrating model watch, and I'm fast losing my patience with proceedings!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ZZZZZZZ!!!!

 

Jeez I'm beginning to wonder whether theres a conspiracy between the global NWP to just deliver every possible roadblock to the high moving west, the trough takes so long to disrupt and then just when you think the high might split it and ridge over the top the next low moves in and phases with the limpet trough!

 

You need it ridging over the top before the next low, that would then force more energy to head se.

It is very frustrating, though with the GFS it is to be expected. There is hope and it could develop at around 5 days away. More amplification needed. 

Standard low resolution output resulting in my desk being karate chopped by my face.

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

ZZZZZZZ!!!!

 

Jeez I'm beginning to wonder whether theres a conspiracy between the global NWP to just deliver every possible roadblock to the high moving west, the trough takes so long to disrupt and then just when you think the high might split it and ridge over the top the next low moves in and phases with the limpet trough!

 

You need it ridging over the top before the next low, that would then force more energy to head se.

 

Might be that HAARP weather control. Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...