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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

whilst its quiet, it does need stating that we havent passed the tipping point quite yet. we do have a developing cold pool to our east in tandem with a scandi riidge.  it does take quite a turnaround to bring that to our shores (ie. a sustained euro trough) but it isnt yet impossible. yes, she is clearing her throat but the curtain hasnt yet gone up although gavin is tugging hard at the ropes !

I find it very strange you of all people are posting regarding the lady on the 10th of Jan BA
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Whoa... some folk interpreting a simple tweet to an anti-snow colleague in Glos way too deeply!!! Yes, UKMO view is for return to W/NW mobility into the 10-15d trend period BUT they stress "greater than average uncertainty" even by next weekend. Equally they note a "good signal" for return to the broadly westerly regime after a quieter interlude (with perhaps a slack broad easterly component at same phase) BUT again stress wide range of (currently minority) other outcomes into trend period. Indeed a senior colleague only yesterday cautioned how the failed easterly emerged v suddenly and against ongoing consensus; he advises that being too prescriptive looking ahead is currently "bonkers" given potential for further swings in output and the "ammo" of deep cold lurking out east. Much water still to go under bridge this winter.

once again we have some misinterpreted with one tweet. So its no wonder possibilities or otherwise are so misinterpreted at times! Optimism in to short currently.
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, UK
  • Location: Exeter, UK

Mods, if you move this post to another thread can you PM and tell me where to so that I can check back for replies please.

 

Ok, genuine questions ...

 

Why do different models offer different solutions? Why do models rarely agree until almost T24? Why do they get so many details wrong the further out they go?

 

The reason I ask is that with modern technology these days it appears (to me anyway) that forecasting (certainly long range in Winter) is no further forward than it was say a decade or so ago.

 

Why do I not see any tangible improvement in forecasting the weather, particularly but not exclusively, during Winter (I must admit I only really have an interest in Winter or extreme weather). How can various models predict varying solutions until almost T24?

 

Is this an investment issue?

 

Furthermore, if FI is almost futile, why do the models go this far out? What is the point? Would it not be better to produce more accurate modelling say to 5/7 days rather than say 10 or more?

 

These questions aren't borne out of frustration at lack of cold/snow, more why do we seem to be no further forward on long range forecasting than I think we were roughly 10 years ago. Or are we further forward and if we are, then why do we see models flip about like a fish in hot water?

 

Thanks.

(purely biased towards MetO)For the Met Office, in terms of skill and verification improvements please consult these links;UK NWP Index - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/numerical-modelling/verification/uk-nwp-indexGlobal NWP Index - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/numerical-modelling/verification/global-nwp-indexForecast accuracy and how this is measured - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts & also http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/d/h/13_0068_Accuracy_v09.pdf This is not neccesarily the thread to discuss how models reach their solutions and the how the nature of NWP inevitably will result in greater degrees of uncertainty relating to certain synoptic setups. I'm sure there is an area of this forum where those topics can be discussed! (and would be more than happy to be directed there).Relating to the last decade, the Met Office have made huge advances in their forecasting skill (and are rightfully the joint best operational weather service globally!), and are regularly set targets to reach (achieved and tracked by using KPIs and BPMs to retain their world class status).Briefly in terms of investment, you may remember that even during government science budget freezes, MetO still gets a new supercomputer at the cost of tens of million, every few years!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Sorry but if that CFS model was correct from what it was showing during most of Autumn we'd have had non stop northern blocking since December

 

I'm afraid CFS is no better or worse than any other model

Your right back in October/November i remember CC posting these charts and they were showing this kind of output back then for Feb,But these show just a likely trend and we are not talking about showing these as a likelihood like back in Oct, Its next month inwhich must have more potential as a trend that is =(Possessing or displaying the qualities or characteristics that make something probable)Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Gotto agree with Gavin D on this one, CFS is shocking, was showing cold fantasy charts through Nov to Jan, as though James Madden had plotted the damn thing

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Whoa... some folk interpreting a simple tweet to an anti-snow colleague in Glos way too deeply!!!

Yes, UKMO view is for return to W/NW mobility into the 10-15d trend period BUT they stress "greater than average uncertainty" even by next weekend. Equally they note a "good signal" for return to the broadly westerly regime after a quieter interlude (with perhaps a slack broad easterly component at same phase) BUT again stress wide range of (currently minority) other outcomes into trend period. Indeed a senior colleague only yesterday cautioned how the failed easterly emerged v suddenly and against ongoing consensus; he advises that being too prescriptive looking ahead is currently "bonkers" given potential for further swings in output and the "ammo" of deep cold lurking out east. Much water still to go under bridge this winter.

 

"Bonkers", "Ammo"? He really should be posting on here.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I find it very strange you of all people are posting regarding the lady on the 10th of Jan BA

 

regarding this particular easterly .....................   i dont doubt she'll be off on her jollys in the next 7 weeks !

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

regarding this particular easterly .....................   i dont doubt she'll be off on her jollys in the next 7 weeks !

Sorry misinterpreted that BA.
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Gotto agree with Gavin D on this one, CFS is shocking, was showing cold fantasy charts through Nov to Jan, as though James Madden had plotted the damn thing

You're over exaggerating more than the CFS does.

 

When the CFS builds a block it likes to destroy faster than the GFS, it was showing a 6-7 days wintry period tops after that I re-introduced the PV to Greenland and caused a spalsh of purples scattered across the Atlantic.

 

Before people go bashing another model maybe you should look into what it was actually displaying first. Plus whenever me or anyone else brings up the CFS its usually just one of seven runs displaying cold the others likely to be zonal and normal weather conditions for the time of the year. 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

after that I re-introduced the PV to Greenland and caused a spalsh of purples scattered across the Atlantic.

Why did you go and do that, for goodness sake??!!
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Be nice to start getting some FI eye candy on the go, something to focus on and put the failed Easterly behind us...It's only a matter of time before we get a proper cold spell surely.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Regarding an ever weakening Vortex looking at this it seems to be going that way Posted Image

 

Posted Image

What's this? - I presume this anomaly chart has come from just one chosen run? - unfortunately people should follow the CFS 1/9 months runs regularly and judge for themselves, this model has come in for unfair criticism this winter as people 'chose' preferred runs to post such charts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

When the CFS pressure anomalies chart shows a lovely big red azores high, that has potential for lots of warmth over the uk, Well put it this way, Persons that search for a mild/warm set up.... say now't!

It seems to me they only give it criticism when it shows a cold set up.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Be nice to start getting some FI eye candy on the go, something to focus on and put the failed Easterly behind us...It's only a matter of time before we get a proper cold spell surely.

OK here's some eye candy

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

There's a lot of scatter after the 20th & at least a straggler has appeared. Some of the GEFS are still showing an easterly trying to make its way to us.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

What's this? - I presume this anomaly chart has come from just one chosen run? - unfortunately people should follow the CFS 1/9 months runs regularly and judge for themselves, this model has come in for unfair criticism this winter as people 'chose' preferred runs to post such charts. 

 

Here's the latest.

 

Posted Image

 

 

I know people say you should look for broad trends, runs averaged, etc but personally I'm not convinced there's any value there either. To me it's just experimental.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy

Looking at the ECM 00z run it is clear that Scandi-Russian high is going to be another of many players in the next few weeks and possibly beyond.  Scandinavia and Russia are going to cool down rapidly in the next few days.  Any disruption in the Atlantic will significantly raise our chances of tapping into that frigid continental cold.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

; he advises that being too prescriptive looking ahead is currently "bonkers" given potential for further swings in output and the "ammo" of deep cold lurking out east. Much water still to go under bridge this winter.

yes excellent point,If you look how close the deep cold  air gets at t+120 this morning it really is too early to predict the final outcome.

 

have the models really nailed the pattern towards the end of next week?I have lost count the number of times the pattern has looked completely different at the end of the week than what was shown when viewing the week ahead forecast on Countryfile

 

And i'm very surprised that some of the more senior posters here in the forum "appear" to have written off this cold-spell so soon.

 

All to play for folks,

 

Roll-on the 12's Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

So rollin', rollin', rollin', GFS! out to 84h  marginal improvement over the 06z with a little more energy going SE and pressure thus a little lower to the South, Also a tad more amplification upstream. Can we get some sort of frontal snow event later as per Nick's wishes?

 

Edit

 

108h the low is over Ireland instead of NW of Scotalnd on the 06z, quite a difference at this range but definitely in our favour.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

At 108 and the 0c 850 uppers are a couple of hundred miles further west than the 6z.  From tiny acorns and all that!!!!

 

12z

Posted Image

 

6z

Posted Image

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Much better run so far from the 12z GFS. Better Jet profile, alignment etc we could

get lucky here.

Nope out to t144 now and its not going to happen.Not on this run anyway.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

How positively wonderful to see the next ridiculously cold shot in to the States next week as we bask in a mild sector

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011112/gfsnh-1-114.png?12

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