Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[MR EXTREMES]

the nao goes very positive although this is refected on what the models are hinting towards beyond Wednesday.

 

the ao

huge scatter the uncertainty clearly is around mid next week  neg then positive.

Edited January 11, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Frosty.]

We had winter is over posts as early as october, I'm still waiting for it to start! At least the models are showing potential for winter to arrive in the next few weeks, or hopefully before march.

[bluearmy]

Morning folks. Any news on the ECM ensembles, I actually thought the ECM showed a little potential around144 to 192 and be interested if this was backed up.Cheers.

 

tough to see with mean maxes sub 5c over there due to plenty of non onshore flow members. i suspect the london ones will be higher than that. the sub zero runs in de bilt are a low percentage. in the extended, the mobility certainly seems well supported although i would still see an mlb centred southern uk/nw europe (extension of azores) as a reasonable call.

[syed2878]

@the eagle. I do agree the ecmf and ukmo have some interest however have been here before with ecmf and ukmo since november. How many of those charts came to fruition? Apart from the ukmo and ecmf it's been another set of uninspiring set of outputs again for the 00h runs. I think gibby's summery today somes up the outputs together with the mets 16-30day forecast.

[Cloud 10]

Some wintry potential in the short term at least. 

 

[Gibby]

Morning folks. Any news on the ECM ensembles, I actually thought the ECM showed a little potential around144 to 192 and be interested if this was backed up.Cheers.

I mentioned the Mean Charts in my report above. As it stands there is nothing to report for anyone looking for cold today. The Azores High is predicted to strengthen in a week or so time with the Jet flow steered on it's course over the Atlantic and up to the North meaning one thing for the UK..mild West winds. Of course this is based on the 00z output and not my own thoughts and could all change in the coming days..who knows.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

[TSNWK]

I mentioned the Mean Charts in my report above. As it stands there is nothing to report for anyone looking for cold today. The Azores High is predicted to strengthen in a week or so time with the Jet flow steered on it's course over the Atlantic and up to the North meaning one thing for the UK..mild West winds. Of course this is based on the 00z output and not my own thoughts and could all change in the coming days..who knows. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Thank you taking the time to reply.

tough to see with mean maxes sub 5c over there due to plenty of non onshore flow members. i suspect the london ones will be higher than that. the sub zero runs in de bilt are a low percentage. in the extended, the mobility certainly seems well supported although i would still see an mlb centred southern uk/nw europe (extension of azores) as a reasonable call.

Thank you.

[Ali1977]

Until we hear of positives for cold from professionals I think the reality is that there is no cold/snow coming in the following 10 days at least, maybe longer.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What is the main killer, is that blooming azores high. That is what is preventing this cold shot from happening. Need to get shot of it IMO if we want some sustained cold activity. 

[Summer Sun]

Latest 8 day temperature anomaly shows a lot of northern eastern Europe cooling down, for the UK though its a mixed bag with temps slightly above normal for the south, south east, wales and some western coasts else where its average or slightly below average

 

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

[TSNWK]

Until we hear of positives for cold from professionals I think the reality is that there is no cold/snow coming in the following 10 days at least, maybe longer.

Well it's always good to look for ourselves, I for one I'm learning loads. But yep your point is valid too unless we get something positive from the pros my hamlets will stay in the box.. I think it was MOGREPS that was the only model not buying into the cold next week, and although we have no access my take is that we can drawn our own conclusions on what this is showing by reading the metoffice 6 -> 15 day updates which are published just after midday each day. Edited January 11, 2014 by TSNWK

[itsnowjoke]

We had winter is over posts as early as october, I'm still waiting for it to start! At least the models are showing potential for winter to arrive in the next few weeks, or hopefully before march.

Frosty that was a brief post.....dont you lose hope too.

[Katiewombat]

Not great at reading the models and nothing scientific or meteorological here but,I really feel this is a classic case of all models dropping the idea of cold to pick it up again 3 or 4 days later.The only factor I can use with this statement is experience of reading and learning all the dramas unfold over the years on here and fantastic posts from far more experienced posters.It's already starting to look a bit better for coldies this morning so let's see what today brings.As I say just my opinionBut if I'm wrong then no real problem there's always feb

My thoughts exactly. Katie

[Stuie]

Looking like a 120 battleground, come on nudge further west.

 

Edit:

Which could be interesting:

Edited January 11, 2014 by StuieW

[Froze were the Days]

ECM pretty similar to yesterday's 12z really, the Scandi/Euro High just there as a buffer and no cold air advecting west, could be more rain on the way in a few days time. Generally poor output.

[TSNWK]

ECM pretty similar to yesterday's 12z really, the Scandi/Euro High just there as a buffer and no cold air advecting west, could be more rain on the way in a few days time. Generally poor output.

Disagree. This mornings trended in the right direction, scandi high was further west around 144 to 192 and there was more energy heading south southeast. If that trend was maintained this evening we might, just might have something to discuss for later next week. Edited January 11, 2014 by TSNWK

[Man With Beard]

The ECM mean continues to move away from a cold solution. Next Wednesday as modelled two days ago:

 

Next Wednesday as modeled yesterday

 

Next Wednesday as modeled this morning

So although the mean got the overall pattern right, it got the low to our west completely wrong. Seems to me it was a day behind the op charts, if you take GFS/UKMO/ECM ops as a blend. 

[karlos1983]

ECM pretty similar to yesterday's 12z really, the Scandi/Euro High just there as a buffer and no cold air advecting west, could be more rain on the way in a few days time. Generally poor output.

 

Have to agree with you, since mid week the models have been backing down each day, with the odd little movement back only to be reversed in the very next run. IMO the trend since mid week has been to move away from the prospect of deep cold in the close range, which was modeled to be as early as Monday if I recall correctly. So probably needing some more patience and hopefully another stab towards the end of the month. Winter is by no means over, we still have the best part of 3 months to run going by last year. 

 

But I really can't see the models swinging back to cold now, as much as it pains me to say it!

 

either way, it has been fantastic viewing, we have really endured a tough winter so far in here, at least we have some interest.

Edited January 11, 2014 by karlos1983

[Timmytour]

T96.....go under! go under!!

[cooling climate]

ECM t144 is probably the chart of the winter so far which sums the winter up really.

The 06z GFS run is very different to the Euro runs as early as t60 so hard to say

what fantasy trip its taking us on.

[Stuie]

ECM t144 is probably the chart of the winter so far which sums the winter up really.

The 06z GFS run is very different to the Euro runs as early as t60 so hard to say

what fantasy trip its taking us on.

 

A rejuvenated scandi high! From the GFS.

Edited January 11, 2014 by StuieW

[Frosty.]

Even when the Ecm mean looked great with undercutting lows and a high pressure block to the north east, the met office updates were a damp squib unless you are on the top of a scottish mountain. So once again the ecm has been a flop, I can't ever remember any of those dream FI wintry charts verifying, the gfs is rubbished all the time and very unfairly, all this gfs in 4th place pony should stop because until these wintry synoptics make it within the reliable timeframe, it's FI eye candy and nothing more.

Edited January 11, 2014 by Frosty.

[Nick F]

Really need to see the Atlantic trough extending southeast from Iceland towards SW Europe disrupt into a cut off low which extends east across mainland Europe, so we can get pressure/heights to rise to the north of the UK and allow the Scandi high to extend west.

Interestingly, around 50% of the GEFS members do this on the 00z run, the ops keep the H500 troughing intact though, which means the H500 flow over SW Europe is part of the upper westerlies extending across the N Atlantic.

As others have said, the block to the NE isn't going far, so we perhaps we need to wait for the Atlantic flow into Europe to work in our favour. The reluctance of the trough to disrupt and/or spread east across mainland Europe is hampering chances of deep cold to back west for now in the ops.

[Ice Day]

Scandi high looking more organised at 126.  How long will it hold though? (and a bit of NW/SE tilt would be nice)

 

Edited January 11, 2014 by Ice Day

[nick sussex]

Scandi high looking more organised at 126.  How long will it hold though?

 

Its a much better orientation than the earlier 00hrs run, still probably a stalemate but at least the high looks in  better shape.