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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

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Please carry on with the model discussion here.

 

If your post is more of an emotional reaction to the models (like - "This run is bad" , "This run is a shocker" , "That's it, the cold isn't coming", "This run is amazing!!!!!") please post it into the model banter, moans and ramps thread so we can keep this thread more discussion based. 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

Major Forecasting Models

GFSECMWFECMWF EPSGEFS EnsemblesUK MetFaxGEMCompare The Big 4

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Still no consistency but having moaned that too much split flow was headed ne, we now get too much going south which forces to depressions to just stop rather than undercut and throw up a sse flow between the main players.

The main issue that th at no point do we get any low uppers into Europe close enough. Yesterday's run would have been ok had we already got embedded cold and this one is similar. My mind taken back many years to a winter where the sypnotics looked excellent but the European mainland was not cold and neither was the continental flow we received. prize for the first poster to present the year and month!

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Doesn't the high pressure up north look like moving to Greenland from the +120 fax chart??

Yes it does. Any lows forming off the US east coast also getting absorbed into the main low pressure.

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If the ECM is right we're heading to a period of uninteresting weather probably becoming rather cloudy as well as winds swing more to the east. Should get drier though which is good for the flooded areas. Temps back to average hovering either probably on a daily basis.

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Anyone having problems with meteociel? Can't load it

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If the ECM is right we're heading to a period of uninteresting weather probably becoming rather cloudy as well as winds swing more to the east. Should get drier though which is good for the flooded areas. Temps back to average hovering either probably on a daily basis.

 

Ones hopes so. My fear would be we end up in the worse case scenario with fronts stalling over the UK and leaving us with yet more rain. Hopefully the block over Europe will keep the systems far enough East for this not to happen; I'd much rather a week of mildish SE and dry than fronts stalling over us! The Thames down in London is pretty badly flooded right now and the last thing we need is more rain!

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Anyone having problems with meteociel? Can't load it

Yes sometimes it loads sometimes it doesn't. Annoyingly cant view the uppers at all.

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I think the root of this poor output seems to stem from the less than favourable movement of the block to our N and eventually NE. It starts off around Spitsbergen, drifts south into the GIN corridor, which is a good position, then drifts SE into NE Europe - which then allows pressure to drop too far north just to our west, which leaves us in a not so cold SE flow from southern Europe.

Would want to see the Atlantic troughing disrupt into a cut-off low across SW Europe quicker than shown on GFS and ECM, by which time it's too late with any easterly, as the deep cold pool is out of reach to tap into. Ideally need to see more amplification in the upper flow upstream over the NW Atlantic for a quicker trough disruption. Still chance that the models aren't handling the block too well and we may also get better amplification upstream to disrupt Atlantic troughing to allow height rises to our north. But for now, a pretty somber reflection of the models.

Edited by Nick F
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Models firming up on agreement at 144 hour. There after remains the problem with a wide range of differing options of how to handle the movement and speed of the developing Atlantic Low. Still expect big changes in the forecasts over the coming couple of days for this time next week.

 C

 

but still not in agreement before then C ?  ecm could still throw a wintry surprise T96/T120, especially a few hundred feet up. i have given up looking for winter and am just enjoying the swings of the output. fascinating.

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I think the root of this poor output seems to stem from the less than favourable movement of the block to our N and eventually NE. It starts off around Spitsbergen, drifts south into the GIN corridor, which is a good position, then drifts SE into NE Europe - which then allows low pressure to drop too far north just to our west, which leaves us in a not so cold SE flow from southern Europe.

Would want to see the Atlantic troughing disrupt into a cut-off low across SW Europe quicker than shown on GFS and ECM, by which time it's too late with any easterly, as the deep cold pool is out of reach to tap into. Ideally need to see more amplification in the upper flow upstream over the NW Atlantic for a quicker trough disruption. Still chance that the models aren't handling the block too well and we may also get better amplification upstream to disrupt Atlantic troughing to allow height rises to our north. But for now, a pretty somber reflection of the models.

Agree Nick - it's easy to see where this appears to be going wrong as far as getting cold in UK, but exactly why it's going wrong is rather more difficult to nail down. The devil really does look to be in the detail here and as ever that will continue to chop and change, but for now I still think it wise just to focus on the fact all the big 3 build pressure solidly to our northeast by 120hrs....again that will do for now imho

 

ECM

Posted Image

GFS

Posted Image

 

UKMO

 

Posted Image

Edited by shedhead
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This must be a first, but I actually think we need slightly more energy going into the northern arm of the jet to Improve the prospects of cold, at the moment too much is going South and its over amplified.. Sending those lows south instead of under the block.

Just another example on how difficult it is to get decent cold in the uk, so many variables have to click into place...

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Three problems as far as I can see, cold air to tap into, the block is not quite in the right place and the big flabby low to our west on the 15th. Yesterdays 18z elongated this but the GFS and the ECM this morning have it as a round dartboard feature again and that’s not helpful. However, the GEM still has it elongated, I’d rather we were not pinning our hopes on just the GEM making the correct call but that’s the way it looks this morning. 

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The reason this has gone pearshaped is its called "the curse of telling your friends and family a cold, snowy spell of weather is on its way". As soon as I do this the models flip!!

It's also because these particular setups are the ones most prone to slight adjustments to upstream flow. Whenever we are relying on just the right amount of jet energy heading in just the right place we are looking for a lot of variables to fall into place at just the right time. As Steve Murr posted on Wednesday morning, the charts looked like we'd rolled a double-six and the roulette ball had landed on green at the same time.

I think whenever we have a winter with a strong jetstream we end up looking for a Scandinavian high to setup in just the right position which leaves us on the Western edge of the cold air. As we've seen many times before, the most likely outcome is always a near miss; it does happen, but most times we get a miss...

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despite the huge improvement  in the computer modelling of the weather the past 20 years
 
the models STILL struggle with blocking to the NE of the uk for some reason
 
although half the problem is it's only now that the modelling of the block is coming into the reliable time-frame so of course their are going to be big changes.in the output
 
 expect further changes to come.Will be interesting to see where we stand come monday....
 
 
 
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Well the 00z suite manages to eek the worst out of a promising situation. GEM remains pick of the bunch but a pale imitation on some of the output gone by.

 

It's always the same when we are looking at getting cold weather into the UK from the East and there is a longwave trough in the Atlantic. Requiring it to disrupt and undercut properly always seems to be a tall ask and with low Atlantic pressure there remains a higher probability of pumping up warm air. Give me an Atlantic high ridging into Greenland with Scandi troughing any day.

 

Far from over yet though, it will change again no doubt, great (but fraught) model watching ahead.

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I think the models could be worse this morning. Still oozing potential IMO. Perhaps views have been skewed by the notion that we were going to have raging easterlies as early as next week?

 

If the charts today had popped up suddenly two weeks a go I think most would have been quite excited even though they are not perfect. 

 

The charts will change again in the next 48 hrs, maybe in our favour, but they will change so I wouldn't be downhearted at all. I really don't think the charts are as bad as being made out.

 

In any case the previous easterly was never really sustainable more than 2 or 3 days. Perhaps it's a blessing in disguise. 

 

Plenty of reasons to be optimistic this morning Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by The Eagle
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Blimey i was optimistic when i went to bed last night.

Still time for changes again but you;d have to say UKMO has been against any Easterly right from the start and its been ultra consistent with the orientation of the Atlantic lows.

The concern now is more wind and rain next week as these systems becoming slow moving as they move in from the Atlantic.

ECM 240 chart looks promising http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

But there is little or no cold to tap into.

The wait goes on....

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Hello,

 

Any views on the ECM Ensembles this morning. Sorry no access to charts.

 

Many thanks

 

TSNWK

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Latest 8 day temperature anomaly from GFS continues to show the south and Wales keeping temperatures above normal, the north and east sees temps staying below average though only slightly below in some areas

 

Posted Image

 

Normal 2m temps left expected 2m temps right

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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