Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14

[andymusic]

I thought that the cold block was a little too far East and the Atlantic would win out on Thurs. Not by blasting the block away but by bringing in milder temps pushing any wintery showers to the NE. To the west will be mostly rain. Thats my reading of it anyway. Unless there is a westward correction of the cold??

 

Cold air more likely to be the winner next week

Thursday is an initial front from the west with associated cold uppers - Derek already confirmed via twitter expect some wintriness - probably showers - higher elevations especially - friday into saturday - still a knife edge-ish - saturday morning could be a surprise - then 26th/27th - wintry storm from the west - very complex - but to say drags alot of cold in with it too and dives south - possibly dragging an easterly in with it after it goes through - lots of weather - and Wales well placed to capitalize on it!

[Bobby]

I thought that the cold block was a little too far East and the Atlantic would win out on Thurs. Not by blasting the block away but by bringing in milder temps pushing any wintery showers to the NE. To the west will be mostly rain. Thats my reading of it anyway. Unless there is a westward correction of the cold??

 

Cold air more likely to be the winner next week

 

This cold air is coming from the NW not the east, the cold to the east is staying there for the forseeable. There could be some snow on the mountains and possibly down to lower levels at times but unlikely to settle in my opinion.

[Bobby]

Thursday's charts on GFS 12z high-res

 

 

Not especially thrilling, some wintry showers mainly over the hills going by that

[J10]

The best chance of wintriness seems likely to be next week, with West to North West winds and cold uppers. A very showery flow and some real wintriness in there. Currently programmed to be Sunday into Monday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Also good to see a lot of Northern blocking mid next week.

[keithlucky]

The best chance of wintriness seems likely to be next week, with West to North West winds and cold uppers. A very showery flow and some real wintriness in there. Currently programmed to be Sunday into Monday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Also good to see a lot of Northern blocking mid next week.

Yes agreed colder uppers possible settling snow overnight periods Sunday-Monday

[welshwizard]

just been reading about the next snow storm to hit parts of America over the next few days, very nasty again out there, 1500 flights cancelled before it even starts. sounds quite major. I think the express reports of the winter we was supposed to have was a few thousand miles out and hit the USA.

[keithlucky]

Snow risk charts for Sunday nice

Edited January 21, 2014 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

thursday still looking good

 

 

next sunday monday is good too

 

 

 

and 18z into Feb is flipping freezing/snowy cold virtually all the way through on this run! eg.

 

 

quote from Ian Fergieweather - By Monday, UKMO-GM has snow showers advecting well inland on westerly flow across e.g. W Country, M4 corridor, Wales etc. As I mentioned yesterday, the unusually chilly characteristics of the westerly flow - at least, as currently progged - looks more likely to bear wintry ppn than otherwise might be the norm for late Jan. One to watch....  

 

snow accumulation chart for a week tomoz

 

 

X marks the spot (for snow that is) - Fergie info

 

Not to be taken too literally (!!! Caution!!!) but here's modified UKMO-GM at T+144:Screenshot_2014-01-21-23-32-19-1.png

 

more details regarding the storm for monday/sunday - wednesday

 

Issued

Tue 21 Jan: 11:00 GMT

Valid From

Sun 26 Jan : 08:00 GMT(In 116hrs)

Valid Until

Tue 28 Jan : 00:00 GMT (156hrs remaining)

Advance Weather Warning for Heavy Rain and Severe Gales

An intense Atlantic depression will affect many parts of the British Isles from Sunday (26th) until Wednesday (29th).

Severe gale force winds are possible across Northern and Western parts of the British Isles with gusts of up to 100mph expected along exposed Western coasts. Wave heights of 30-40ft are also possible and expected to push South during Monday (27th) along Western Ireland and later South-west England.

Heavy rain will accompany this system with the potential of 30-50mm (1-2") of rainfall across Western areas during this warning period with the risk of over 100mm (4") of rainfall across Western Scotland leading to the risk of local flooding and landslips.

As the system tracks South during Tuesday the incursion of colder air at lower levels has the potential to bring snow to lower levels across parts of Northern and North-west England.

This system has the potential to disrupt transport and power networks as well as cause significant damage to property caused by severe gales and heavy intense rainfall.

 

ONE BEASTIE - track of the storm isn't nailed on yet - but could go south north/further east etc - all depends on the blocking! - will be closely watched I'm sure!

 

 

Joe B is getting the wintry weather right now in America as stated above - maybe we'll have the same shortly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

Edited January 22, 2014 by andymusic

[andymusic]

Brooklyn Bridge Blizzard - CAN WE HAVE OUR SNOW BACK PLEASE

 

looks nice (frustratingly a week away though mmmmmmm)

 

Edited January 22, 2014 by andymusic

[Panayiotis]

Nice chart for snow @114hrs

Edited January 22, 2014 by Panayiotis

[andymusic]

Nice chart for snow @114hrs

yep looking good -

 

unfortunately looks like tomoz's wintriness - cold uppers don't get as far south as Wales now (what there was of it has been cancelled) - and we have to wait till sunday afternoon now (let's hope that doesn't go the same way too)

 

the overnight period sunday/monday does look good for a 24hr period of cold and showers (no downgrades please - upgrades would be nice though)

 

 

28th/29th - again - overnight period could produce some wintriness! ( a flake or two is all we ask just to say we believed winter existed this year lol)

 

 

constant "TREND" in the last few FI gfs is cold/snowiness as we go into FEB - let's hope this comes into the reliable - Feb is usually the coldest month - so if we can't produce snow then???????????????????????       

Edited January 22, 2014 by andymusic

[Nights King]

I love the enthusiasm from you Andy but I'll eat my hat if those maps come true

[Panayiotis]

yep looking good -

 

unfortunately looks like tomoz's wintriness - cold uppers don't get as far south as Wales now (what there was of it has been cancelled) - and we have to wait till sunday afternoon now (let's hope that doesn't go the same way too)

 

the overnight period sunday/monday does look good for a 24hr period of cold and showers (no downgrades please - upgrades would be nice though)

 

 

28th/29th - again - overnight period could produce some wintriness! ( a flake or two is all we ask just to say we believed winter existed this year lol)

 

Never saw the potential for snow on Thursday (for my area anyways), just hoping that we get some surprises next week! (How many times have we said this, for winter 2013/2014!)

[Jackfrost]

It's symptomatic of how dire this winter has been that I'm now thinking of summer and next winter.

[freeze for all]

It's symptomatic of how dire this winter has been that I'm now thinking of summer and next winter.

it's been a long wet windy winter so far so don't blame u for thinking like that lol

[Snowyowl9]

This time last year we had 5 inches of snow with snow graupel and freezing rain/drizzle then snow with strong east winds and drifting where`s the archive charts they only go upto the end of 2012.

As for today quite pleasant with a few drizzly showers and light winds and sunny at times and feeling somewhat springlike.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Snowyowl9

[andymusic]

I love the enthusiasm from you Andy but I'll eat my hat if those maps come true

I'll eat your hat un all lol  - no - Just keep thinking - it's got to come around at some point - never seen such a bad winter - only thing I can think of is weather balances itself out - and America is grabbing all the cold for itself - leaving nothing for anyone else - but also some balancing out between rain and snow in our backyard would be nice too!

[keithlucky]

I'll eat your hat un all lol  - no - Just keep thinking - it's got to come around at some point - never seen such a bad winter - only thing I can think of is weather balances itself out - and America is grabbing all the cold for itself - leaving nothing for anyone else - but also some balancing out between rain and snow in our backyard would be nice too!

Remember boxing day tea shirt no jumpers had many winters in the 90"s without lying snow Andy god i feel old lol

Edited January 22, 2014 by keithlucky

[Bobby]

On the GFS 12z there will likely be snow across higher ground on Monday night, settling too likely. Snow possible down to lower levels a bit inland as well, not sure it will settle but there could be some minor temporary accumulations

 

 

Nothing really substantial or lasting but better than nowt I suppose in this snow starved winter!

(from showers so hit and miss)

[andymusic]

now then folks - don't be in shock - this is such a lovely chart - please please please let it be 

 

[keithlucky]

now then folks - don't be in shock - this is such a lovely chart - please please please let it be 

 

More Andy getting closer lol

Edited January 22, 2014 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Just for the Rampers here

[J10]

As for next week, the continuing theme of some wintriness,.

 

Uppers are forecast to be around -5 to -6c across Wales, next Monday morning on winds just North of West with uppers remaining sub -5c for most of the morning and into the early afternoon. At this stage, cold enough for a wintry mix, with some snow possible everywhere, However due to the wintry mix, accumulation very much limited to higher hills.

 

 

Thicknesses are in the region 520-522 dam, which helps the snow risk considerably.

 

 

Anther cold blast is possible for Wednesday but this is a bit more marginal, but further snow showers are possible on higher ground, wintry elsewhere.

 

Of course the above is based on GFS 12Hz, and the levels of wintriness depend on the detail which will change,

Edited January 22, 2014 by J10

[andymusic]

starter for ten - 18z

 

 

 

 

one monster of a storm

 

 

snow + mega winds = BLIZZARD   

 

from about tuesday onwards - all up in the air - numerous solutions have come through regarding where the low goes next - models can't decide yet - meto going for low moving through into Europe - small window of easterly cold - then atlantic back in - very complex - and could go a number of ways - but for sure (just about) some snow could very well be heading Wales way - and blizzard conditions in that storm sunday night into monday!

Edited January 22, 2014 by andymusic

[J10]

The 18Hz run not quite as promising for snow early next week, but more of a cold zonal theme thereafter with more of a NW flow rather than the SW flow we have become accustomed to, with chance of some wintriness more especially for hills

 

Some some uncertainty though about the medium term outlook.

 

There is less uncertainty is the weather over the weekend and a Severe Weather Warning for rain has been issued for Sunday.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1390694400&regionName=wl