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Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


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Slid around a bit on the way to work this morning (Miskin way). Have to question whether it had been gritted at all to be honest. I'm not a model watcher, but a model watcher watcher. I am stalking the mental model thread with renewed interest.....

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Snow cover visible on the Pumlumon range and some of the Cambrian hills above about 400m whilst driving to Aberystwyth today.

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The stone might help us find the cold and snowy weather LOL

 

The meto's latest million pound computer LOL LOLPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image  (only joking of course they are doing a fine job this year with our mild winter)

post-7852-0-58568000-1389789903_thumb.jp

Edited by andymusic
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Not looking good for the rest of January

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25750629

i heard the radio today and a guy on there said they don't think there be any significant cold weather for the next 3 weeks and maybe beyond that. if that is the case we be into feb then and the days be lot longer by then so chances of snow sticking about will be far less. I know we can have huge snow in feb but they norm have quite cold weather before the snow, I think we could find the atlantic will control our winter this year. time will tell but if you want snow it sounds as if its a long way away.

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yes it is winter but very very mild and very damp to say the least. im not moaning as iv saved loads of money on gas this winter ha ha. we may have a few frosts etc but if your a snow and cold person this winter has been quite disappointing for them so far.

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Estofex has a level 1 out for all of South Wales today for multicellular thunderstorms and storms in general, possible tornadic activity also - mmmmmmmmm - we shall see

 

http://www.estofex.org/

 

model update - all trending a little colder into next week - not quite cold enough yet for anything wintry - but nudged a bit further westward and we could be on - latest mogreps info from Ian F is 50% for an easterly next week!

Edited by andymusic
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Not looking good for the rest of January

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25750629

 

4th warmest on record so far! How depressing is that.

 

I could deal with that if it wasn't for the rain. Anything but constant rain in any season.

 

Not even a sniff of snow so far. Not even a wet soggy flake. That's got to be unusual even for the UK.

 

I hope we don't get our winter in March and April again. It was a proper slog last year. But at least we had a cracking summer.

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4th warmest on record so far! How depressing is that.

 

I could deal with that if it wasn't for the rain. Anything but constant rain in any season.

 

Not even a sniff of snow so far. Not even a wet soggy flake. That's got to be unusual even for the UK.

 

I hope we don't get our winter in March and April again. It was a proper slog last year. But at least we had a cracking summer.

 

I'd take two months of mild wet Atlantic domination if we had a deep freeze with a foot of level snow and blizzards in February. Entirely possible, I'd only start getting worried if we're into February and there is still no sign of snow and cold on the horizon.

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Saves Mr Birdseye a job - seems the fast low temps and easterly wind did this

 

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/oddnews/it-got-so-cold-so-quickly-in-this-norweigan-bay-that-it-froze-a-bunch-of-fish-swimming-in-it-232504960.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory

 

 

if we could just tap into aswell - winter is ours - latest models today are edging that way - but ever so painfully slow!

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A lot of rain here last night from that streamer, 26mm over the past 24 hours. Another load of heavy rain to move up tonight from the South with another 20-30mm or more in places. Met Office has warning out:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1390003200&regionName=wl

 

A complex set of frontal systems will move up into the southwest of Britain overnight and during Saturday morning and afternoon. The associated rainbands are likely to slow or stall for a few hours, before resuming their eastward progress later in the day. 10 to 20 mm of rain could fall over a fairly wide area, while a few locations could see upwards of 30 mm resulting in some impacts.

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Underneath that streamer last night looking at the rain lashing down around the lampost, I imagined what the scene would be if it was snow... now I really miss it and want some. It's so magical, the silence as the flakes fall and pile up. Hopefully in February.

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Be surprised if you don't get decent snow this Feb/ Spring given your altitude!

Edited by TonyH
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Posted · Hidden by Bobby, January 17, 2014 - No reason given
Hidden by Bobby, January 17, 2014 - No reason given

Be surprised if don't get decent snow this Feb/ Spring given your altitide!

 

As long as some cold easterlies and northerlies get stuck in! Just a bit of sleet so far. This time last year there was almost a foot and 3 foot drifts.

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more of the wet stuff tomoz - everyone's betting on cold and snow for feb - well let's hope so - feels like we're on a plane on a runway that's getting shorter and shorter before managing to get off the ground - WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF RUNWAY! lolPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for Wales : Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Vale of Glamorgan, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Monmouthshire, Newport & Torfaen valid from 0400 Sat 18 Jan to 1900 Sat 18 Jan
 
one blizzard ala gfs 12z - set up inside high res - gone whacko in low res - but the date the 26th Jan has been banded about (as has many others this season) - will this one pan out?
 
Posted Image
 
weirdly ecm 00z has one out at 240 too - around a similar time
 
Posted Image
 
Posted Image
 
northerly anyone - well into FI now - but just to wet ones appetite (bit like water in a desert)
 
Posted Image
 
just to add - metos long range (month) outlook - kind of sits on fence - wintrish in the north and not so wintry/more rain/unsettled in the south with bouts of cold and not so cold at times - they do seem to have some mega computer models now that seem to have a much better handle on a reasonable medium range forecast - so certainly they need watching alot more closely these days - mind you - I'm sure they won't be akin to being caught napping still - if something shows up short term!
Edited by andymusic
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more of the wet stuff tomoz - everyone's betting on cold and snow for feb - well let's hope so - feels like we're on a plane on a runway that's getting shorter and shorter before managing to get off the ground - WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF RUNWAY! lolPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for Wales : Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Neath Port Talbot, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Vale of Glamorgan, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Monmouthshire, Newport & Torfaen valid from 0400 Sat 18 Jan to 1900 Sat 18 Jan
 
one blizzard ala gfs 12z - set up inside high res - gone whacko in low res - but the date the 26th Jan has been banded about (as has many others this season) - will this one pan out?
 
Posted Image
 
weirdly ecm 00z has one out at 240 too - around a similar time
 
Posted Image
 
Posted Image
 
northerly anyone - well into FI now - but just to wet ones appetite (bit like water in a desert)
 
Posted Image
 
just to add - metos long range (month) outlook - kind of sits on fence - wintrish in the north and not so wintry/more rain/unsettled in the south with bouts of cold and not so cold at times - they do seem to have some mega computer models now that seem to have a much better handle on a reasonable medium range forecast - so certainly they need watching alot more closely these days - mind you - I'm sure they won't be akin to being caught napping still - if something shows up short term!

 

 

Very much in FI, but decent northerlies can be good in February.

 

I always get vary of people saying winter is over, people said that last winter and looked what happened in North Wales in March.

Edited by J10
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Very much in FI, but decent northerlies can be good in February.

 

I always get vary of people saying winter is over, people said that last winter and looked what happened in North Wales in March.

didn't actually say "winter is over" (but time is running out on something special if we're to get that before the sun gets too strong) - I still think Feb could be a mega cold and snowy month - make up for what we've had - and could spill over into March

 

Ukmo is still trying with the "easterly" - but I'm not sure at the mo that's where our cold will come from 1st - does look good though!

 

Posted Image

Edited by andymusic
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didn't actually say "winter is over" (but time is running out on something special if we're to get that before the sun gets too strong) - I still think Feb could be a mega cold and snowy month - make up for what we've had - and could spill over into March

 

Ukmo is still trying with the "easterly" - but I'm not sure at the mo that's where our cold will come from 1st - does look good though!

 

 

 

I didn't say you did. (re Winter is over)

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