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Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


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He could well be wrong the latest ECM has got HP over NE Europe putting up resistance to LP moving into the west of the UK wed/Thursday ,any further westwards movement of the HP ,would be great blocking the LP to trying to cross the UK..It would be great if this happened to give us a break from this constant downpours!Posted Image

Reminds me of a similar chart in 1996.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00219960206.gif

 

However the build up to this chart this year and that in 1996, was very different. and the upper air temps this year are that bit milder.

 

As a result the 18 inches of snow in the Northern South Wales Valleys will not happen this year.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/49493-the-winter-of-1995-96/

 

 

Just making the point that charts aren't always what them seem.

Edited by J10
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Beautifully sunny, if distinctly chilly day today and below 0.6c now. Fresh load of kilned oak logs delivered today, glowing fire, glowing belly from monthly korma curry, not really bothered re snow anymore, BUT our bad month 2013 was March - so no complacency yet!

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very very icy tonight and frosty - we've got a lovely ice rink outside - really dicey!

 

GFS 18z - definitely looking generally colder - even if the easterly doesn't get here - overnight temps at times this week will struggle to get above freezing - so you never know - some surprises could still turn up!

 

definitely feels alot more like winter right now - FINALLY

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Andy, I wish you would stop postin those charts, they ain't worth the pixels that are used. You've been posting them all winter showing the 'potential' for snow and there has hardly been a flake. But if those charts had come to fruition we would have had feet of snow around these parts. I know it's only what is being predicted but over the years they have been absolutely useless. I don't want to dent your enthusiasm as it is fun but are they really worth getting our hopes up when they are mostly over a week away?

Edited by Welsh_Weather
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Andy, I wish you would stop postin those charts, they ain't worth the pixels that are used. You've been posting them all winter showing the 'potential' for snow and there has hardly been a flake. But if those charts had come to fruition we would have had feet of snow around these parts. I know it's only what is being predicted but over the years they have been absolutely useless. I don't want to dent your enthusiasm as it is fun but are they really worth getting our hopes up when they are mostly over a week away?

unfortunately - it seems - this winter is turning out to be a dud slowly - we may get something in Feb/March - but overall - in the past few years - the models have churned out some great charts and they have delivered also - this year winter does seem to be refusing to visit us - a 90s winter - had to happen eventually I suppose - can't have the artic bunging up the works in the UK every year. Sorry your hopes have been dashed so many times - there are lots in the same boat - seems the meto are seeing more accurate info we don't get to see these days - so even they have moved on somewhat - although it's not impossible for them to be caught out either - my theory - America has nicked our winter - especially with their extreme low temps - and there about to get hit again soon!

 

we're not the only ones to get led up the garden path this year either - Joe B, James Madden, Piers Corbyn, the media - have all fallen at the fence this year too - wildly predicting 90 days of bitterly cold and snowy weather - it's not happening - and looking less and less likely this year - at least within 7 days we take small bites at predicting the weather - but on this small isle of ours at mid-latitude - with the atlantic throwing everything at us this winter - there's not alot we can do but just suck it up - still the 2nd half and extra time(March) of winter to go yet - and there's always a chance some wintriness will come the UK's way

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Interesting sat pic posted by Derek on twitter - showing snow is all around us - Iceland, Scandinavia, Russia, North America, Alps, Pyrenees, although the main heartland of Europe is also mild too

post-7852-0-76328400-1389530615_thumb.jp

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A proper air frost last night, puddles and the bird bath frozen solid. A brief taste of winter but heavy rain moving in today, 179mm this month so far, should be above 200mm by end of day.

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It's still early days and there's plenty of time for some white stuff to take us by surprise. I'm not writing this Winter off just yet. Posted Image

Very wise - especially bearing in mind the most snow I've ever had came in March last year.

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That brief taste of winter last night didn't last long, hammering down now and garden turning into a bog once again. Could be some convective interest tomorrow as a squally band of heavy rain/showers moves through with thunder and hail possible.

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unfortunately - it seems - this winter is turning out to be a dud slowly - we may get something in Feb/March - but overall - in the past few years - the models have churned out some great charts and they have delivered also - this year winter does seem to be refusing to visit us - a 90s winter - had to happen eventually I suppose - can't have the artic bunging up the works in the UK every year. Sorry your hopes have been dashed so many times - there are lots in the same boat - seems the meto are seeing more accurate info we don't get to see these days - so even they have moved on somewhat - although it's not impossible for them to be caught out either - my theory - America has nicked our winter - especially with their extreme low temps - and there about to get hit again soon!

 

we're not the only ones to get led up the garden path this year either - Joe B, James Madden, Piers Corbyn, the media - have all fallen at the fence this year too - wildly predicting 90 days of bitterly cold and snowy weather - it's not happening - and looking less and less likely this year - at least within 7 days we take small bites at predicting the weather - but on this small isle of ours at mid-latitude - with the atlantic throwing everything at us this winter - there's not alot we can do but just suck it up - still the 2nd half and extra time(March) of winter to go yet - and there's always a chance some wintriness will come the UK's way

 

To be honest though who actually believed what people like James Madden, Piers Corbyn have to say. This isn't hindsight, I said their comments were nonsense when first published on this thread,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78308-wales-cymru-autumn-regional-discussion-281013/?p=2834410

 

If something looks too good to be true is usually is. Joe B is a slightly different kettle of fish, I take his comments with a pinch of salt as he is cold biased, but at least at times there is some substance behind what he says.

Edited by J10
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Plenty of people will be relieved we are getting a mild Winter!

 

From a heating bills perspective, many are relieved. This winter so far certainly hadn't been boring with its mix of rain, sleet, snow, hail, rain, wind, Severe Gales, rain, thunder, lightning, rain, and some very lucky people spotted the Northern Lights in Mid Wales last week and the first 2 weeks in December was very dry, but that seems a long time ago now.

 

In many winters February had brought us some heavy snow events, admittedly they don't tend to last as long. In 2006/07 which in many ways was similar to this one so far, we had a very heavy daytime snow event, on the 9th February 2007.

 

In recent winters, there have four, with no lying snow to the end of January. - Entirely my records, and others will have completely different stats.

2006/07 mentioned above saw a major snow event,

2007/08 Saw no settling snow events of the rest of the winter.

2008/09 Saw a very wintry February

2011/12 Saw a number of falling snow events, but none gave long lasting snow (over a few hours)

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To be honest though who actually believed what people like James Madden, Piers Corbyn have to say. This isn't hindsight, I said their comments were nonsense when first published on this thread,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78308-wales-cymru-autumn-regional-discussion-281013/?p=2834410

 

If something looks too good to be true is usually is. Joe B is a slightly different kettle of fish, I take his comments with a pinch of salt as he is cold biased, but at least at times there is some substance behind what he says.

I knew that the "90 day blizzard" extravaganza was never gonna be on the table - Joe B has been up to his eyes with the American situation with their extreme cold - so has only been glimpsing in our direction at times - two or three times hinting at cold/snow - but the weather never pulling it off - James Madden (in his own reality) - Piers Corbyn seems to work in a slightly different way - but even he's had to back down from his call for snow for the UK - I try and take a reasonable punt via the models at predicting what we may get - but it can be a very confusing picture - and this season the Atlantic zonal train has just been much too strong - looking at todays 12z so far - looks like this may well continue - not as bad as over xmas - but certainly in a zonal fashion - which will keep temps pretty much average and above freezing = COLD RAIN/WIND

 

Just been out in the weather now - and it's flipping cold, wet, windy - just not nice - shame cause this was looking like a potential snowy scene about a week ago with the easterly pushing in stalling the front! - could have been sooooooo different. There ya go!

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what happened to the andy that used to say we would have ski slopes up the beacons and endless cold winters?

I still believe we are diving into a "cooling" period - ie "mini ice age" overall - but this will develop over years/decades - and obviously there will be winters that will not reflect that trend and be mild - but we are the odd ones out in quite a bit of the northern hemisphere right now (including our neighbours in Europe) - as we've all seen the horrendous cold out west! - Slammer there is still over another half of winter left and March - speculation growing even over next weekend via the ECM tonight - could be an up hill struggle - but I'm willing to bet that snow will be with us within the next 3 weeks or so!

Edited by andymusic
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Try telling that to the people who have been hit bad by the recent storms and floods

Why should I? The weather will do what it will, a hard Winter would cause suffering and death for the elderly and infirm.

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I don't put much faith in February/March snow events. We can of course get very heavy snowfalls and cold weather in those months but with the days lengthening and the sun growing ever stronger, the chances of a sustained cold and snowy spell diminish.

 

It's about a year to the day since the first hints of a snow event on the 17th started to show. I recall this place going into meltdown when a red warning was issued by the Met Office. What transpired was a fairly average snowfall on the 17th, but after two successive snowfalls a few days later and not a glimmer of sunshine (so little melting), there were big piles of the stuff by the 22nd.

 

Nothing compared to what was seen in NE Wales in March, though.

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I don't put much faith in February/March snow events. We can of course get very heavy snowfalls and cold weather in those months but with the days lengthening and the sun growing ever stronger, the chances of a sustained cold and snowy spell diminish.  Nothing compared to what was seen in NE Wales in March, though.

As the days get longer the cold gets stronger.The last remanants drifts of last march exceptional snowstorm lasted until april 22nd here.
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gfs 18z - trying to give us something to smile about for next sunday - but a long way off and more improvements would be nice on this theme

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

only trying to give a little hope for us snow/winter starved Welsh folk - that's all

 

still no major cold - but there's always tomorrows model runs - you never know it could be round the next corner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Posted Image

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