Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


Recommended Posts

No sign of things drying out, another 100mm+ forecast on 12z GFS for parts of Wales over the next week, more over the hills. Wettest February, wettest winter ever looking very possible. Can't remember a winter ever like this one, one for the record books. More nasty storms and gales possible next week as well

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

Link to post
Share on other sites
Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 899
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

    reports of an HGV on it's side around J42 of the M4, recovery being made difficult due to high winds 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.

    No sign of things drying out, another 100mm+ forecast on 12z GFS for parts of Wales over the next week, more over the hills. Wettest February, wettest winter ever looking very possible. Can't remember a winter ever like this one, one for the record books. More nasty storms and gales possible next week as well

     

     

    Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, thunder and lightning.
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl

    The winds have finally picked up in Cardiff. It's been quiet all day with some 44mph gusts occasionallly,. Gusts only up to 55mph (recorded at cardiff bay weather station) but it's sounding a lot more vicious. Average wind speeds per 10 mins are only 33mph. http://www.cbwac.com/harbour/harbour/barrage/Current_Vantage_Pro_Plus.htm

    Edited by Clair_Witch
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Just come back from Swansea Marina! Wow really gusty especially going past the tower! Could feel the wind push the car ! Its like a wind tunnel. Is it due to get worse tonight?

    I think the winds have peaked although it had been very windy all day, and it will continue to be very windy.

    Gusts of 80mph at Mumbles, with sustained wind speeds of 60mph for at time this afternoon.

    Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

    45mm of rain this month, certainly wet especially on Thursday and Friday but not as bad as forecast.

    Still looks goods for snow across Wales Tuesday heavy wintry showers snow across Wales I snow risks maps are not that good but the trend is therePosted ImagePosted Image

    I'll try the ignore it option after what happened last week. Posted Image

    Edited by J10
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

    Meanwhile here it proved very accurate unbelievably with 110mm in the past 7 days. There will always be great local variation with precipitation and strong orographic/ sheltering effects.

    Edited by TonyH
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    I think the winds have peaked although it had been very windy all day, and it will continue to be very windy.

    Gusts of 80mph at Mumbles, with sustained wind speeds of 60mph for at time this afternoon.

    45mm of rain this month, certainly wet especially on Thursday and Friday but not as bad as forecast.

    I'll try the ignore it option after what happened last week. Posted Image

    Mumbles seems to have been a lot drier than the north of Swansea where amounts probably nearer to 100mm.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Location: Hereford

    Just over the border and it's been raining heavy on and off all day. Looking nervously at latest radar returns for the Wye catchment area. Wye rising quickly upstream. Could be the biggest flood in Herefordshire for a while.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Just on this subject, accumulated precipitation. Go back a week and it looked like being 100mm+ for my area. It's been anything but. In fact, even today, we've had very very little indeed. River level has barely moved.

     

    They are fairly low resolution maps so exposed high ground will likely get more than that and lower sheltered areas possibly a lot less. The higher res models like NMM and EURO4 give a more realistic and accurate prediction for a particular location.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.
  • Location: Pencoed, South Wales.

    They are fairly low resolution maps so exposed high ground will likely get more than that and lower sheltered areas possibly a lot less. The higher res models like NMM and EURO4 give a more realistic and accurate prediction for a particular location.

    Absolutely. Yet they keep being posted as being signs of the apocalypse in the model thread. They are merely indicative of the potential.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Mumbles seems to have been a lot drier than the north of Swansea where amounts probably nearer to 100mm.

     

    The rainfall for Cwm Level has been 67mm so far this month, of course Northern parts of Swansea do get more rain than Mumbles as is borne out by average rainfall being 20-25% higher, but not to the extent you have elaborated.

     

    On many occasions on this thread in recent months I have said say 5mm of rain for Mumbles but more here.

     

    So my original point still holds these low resolution maps do overstate rainfall, except the hilly areas well inland.

     

    They are fairly low resolution maps so exposed high ground will likely get more than that and lower sheltered areas possibly a lot less. The higher res models like NMM and EURO4 give a more realistic and accurate prediction for a particular location.

     

    I mentioned this point months ago, so why do people keep on posting these charts, as they overstate rainfall for the majority. I think EURO4 is a bit better for rainfall predictions, but NMM also tends to overstate rainfall amounts.

     

    In many ways these charts are similar to the snowfall charts, useful as a rough guide, but in terms of accuracy way off.

    Edited by J10
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Meanwhile here it proved very accurate unbelievably with 110mm in the past 7 days. There will always be great local variation with precipitation and strong orographic/ sheltering effects.

     

    One significant so far this winter was the difference between December and January. There was far more orographically enhanced rainfall in December, with a lot of steady rainfall in coastal areas, enhanced as it went inland.

    While in January there was more showery rainfall, so that that January was much wetter in Coastal areas than December was, with over double the rainfall.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    I mentioned this point months ago, so why do people keep on posting these charts, as they overstate rainfall for the majority. I think EURO4 is a bit better for rainfall predictions, but NMM also tends to overstate rainfall amounts.

     

    In many ways these charts are similar to the snowfall charts, useful as a rough guide, but in terms of accuracy way off.

    It's more about precision than accuracy surely. They are low-res so imprecise, giving the average rainfall expected in a fairly large square with inevitable variations within that square especially with the varied geography in a small area like here in Wales. They aren't terribly useful for forecasting the rainfall in your back garden but they aren't meant for that, they are what they are. For that job there are the high-res models, whether precision predictions are accurate though of course is another matter.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

     

    Yellow Alert of Rain for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen & Vale of Glamorgan valid from 0015 Tue 11 Feb to 2345 Tue 11 Feb
     
     
    with some back edge snow on the front too! and wintry snowy showers to follow!
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    showers getting a little wintry here again

     

     

    Yellow Warning of Ice for Wales : Monmouthshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Neath Port Talbot, Powys, Swansea, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Wrexham, Conwy & Flintshire valid from 2200 Sun 09 Feb to 1000 Mon 10 Feb
     
    lots of wet snow in this one - winter is fighting back!
    Edited by andymusic
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL

    Brecon earlier, that's my snow fix sorted now lol

    post-16728-0-74105800-1391953499_thumb.j

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: upper tumble, llanelli, carmarthenshire
  • Location: upper tumble, llanelli, carmarthenshire

    We had wet snow here about 30mins ago exciting and disappointing knowing that it had no chance of sticking :(. Brilliant sun now

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    We had wet snow here about 30mins ago exciting and disappointing knowing that it had no chance of sticking Posted Image. Brilliant sun now

     

    Yep it feels a bit pointless if it doesn't stick, I do long for some proper dry settling snow like last January, seems a world away now. There looks to be a decent covering on the Brecon Beacons though if you're really snow starved, looks solid white out of my window. Was a good covering there on Friday too.

    Edited by Bobby
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Lots of hail this year in Cardiff! has given a temporary covering here today!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Yep it's feels a bit pointless if it doesn't stick, I do long for some proper dry settling snow like last January, seems a world away now. There looks to be a decent covering on the Brecon Beacons though if you're really snow starved, looks solid white out of my window. Was a good covering there on Friday too.

     

    Alternatively watch the winter Olympics.

     

    More rain here this morning. Oh for a good old fashioned Northerly toppler,

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    well well - winter olympics - snow/sleet/wind/hail and now thunder and lightning!

     

    and everything is white - we have a slight base!

     

    according to 12z gfs this is gonna be a very wintry week in Wales!

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    temp must be coming down some more now - lovely bit of fluffy flake snow in that last shower

    Edited by andymusic
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...