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Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


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MAN THE LIFEBOATS

 

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seriously though folks - will this rain ever abate - maybe next week eh! 12z coming out now

 

wetterzentrale have upgraded there advertising - even they must think there's a cold snap on the way!

 

Joe B has thrown his two pennith worth in too - Winter coming for Europe. Day 10-15 temps pic.twitter.com/urRy1tJDEI

Edited by andymusic
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Dark wet crap again...the fields around are partly underwater.......will this crap weather ever end? Probably when whoever is doing a non stop rain dance gets a well deserved kneecapping!

 

Oh and as for the potential snow in a few days time.....no one who is in a flooded area is going to give a damn. Snow doesnt settle on floodwater!!! As much use as a chocolate fireguard.

 

Dry weather (and a good spell of it) is urgently needed.

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Well then. Everyone seems rather bullish over in the Models thread re cold next week. 12z has turned out good it seems. This time next week we could be looking out at totally different weather. Posted Image Time to get a tad excited??

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real sense of DE-ja-vue again this year. i posted a few months ago that on the 16-17th of jan 2013 that we couldnt type on here fast enough due to impending snow and cold. we r not quite there yet but its only a week away until the 16th....................wonder if it will happen again???!!

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UPGRADE UPGRADE 00z - Monday now - rain to snow event for Wales

 

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America latest - temps have got so low in America that even "Hell" has frozen over LOL

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-storm-so-bad-even-hell-has-frozen-over-9044252.html

 

Cool car in Chicago

That car was a photo from Geneva in the mid 2000s.... Someones chopped and used it.....its done the rounds most years since every winter....
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real sense of DE-ja-vue again this year. i posted a few months ago that on the 16-17th of jan 2013 that we couldnt type on here fast enough due to impending snow and cold. we r not quite there yet but its only a week away until the 16th....................wonder if it will happen again???!!

 

I'd take a repeat of that spell everytime, the rest of the winter can do what it likes then!

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Low pressure tries to push east wards across Wales Monday Tuesday meeting colder air pushing in from the continent so some snow possible and again Wednesday into Thursday another LP tries to push into Wales a better chance to see settling snow.so atm plenty of opportunities to see some snow across Wales the week ahead  Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by keithlucky
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Personally if we get a few days of cold with some kind of snow event giving a covering that'll do me. More chances to come into February. I do think the Atlantic will make a fairly swift return though.

As for now, its raining again, who'd have thought? Could be a washout today with an inch or more of rain in places.

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The models got this a bit wrong today, the heaviest of the rain effecting more South western parts of parts of Wales with South Eastern Wales escaping the worst of the rain.

 

Some decent charts for colder weather coming up, possibly even some wintriness.

Edited by J10
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Joe B - HUGE pattern reversal coming for Europe bringing arctic air, snow back west into UK in 6-10 day period ECWMF 168 pic.twitter.com/xS5a9HJncD

 

One added bonus of Easterly, is that in the absence of snow, drier and brighter weather is also quite possible, and I think many would take as an consolation prize.

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Tonight's ECM suggests many opportunities for battleground-type snow events over Wales as low pressure systems "slide" under the blocking heights. As ever, we know that these are knife edge situations that can lead to lots of snow if we are in the narrow sweet spot (e.g. S Wales valleys in Jan 2013, N Wales in March 2013), whereas if we are only a tiny bit out of the sweet spot then we face only rain on the one hand or dry on the other.

 

It's all still at the edge of reliable timeframe at the moment, even for the broad synoptic pattern (reliable timeframe for snowfall details is about 12 hours) and GFS and UKMO models show less optimal solutions. Lots of interesting model watching to come over the remainder of the week - further upgrades could see snowy potential as early as Monday over the hills, but at the moment Tuesday into Wednesday is probably looking the best bet for some wintry conditions.

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Need to see front stall a hundred miles west as latest Fax shows ,and it could well do as colder air digs in from the east worth watching the next few days faxes.Posted Image

Edited by keithlucky
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snow risk now put back to next thursday on the oozs

 

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More unwanted rainfall before then exascerbating existing flooding issues, rendering snow irrelevant. Correct me if I am wrong in saying that...but I would not think I am, given the ground is saturated/waterlogged

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Will be moving to Tondu in a month and a halfs time or so, though I will be at university in aber then so will only be spending the holidays there! though its not far from where I am now so doubt it will change any of my luck with the weather esp as its low ground aswell at 66m!

 

Though not much  I have had more thunder and lightning so far in 2014 than i did all last year I think! Hope this year will be a good one for storms!

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so the cold gets pushed back by 2 days? is that correct guys? seen this before its here in 7 days then 5 days later its here in 7 days. I myself think towards the end of next week mountains and valleys may have some snow but as norm seem to happen in Wales low lying areas below 100m have sleet or rain. that's happens around this area all the time. drive up from Bridgend and mountains are white and nothing down bridgend, sarn, area and do not see snow until you hit areas like ogmore vale. mad weather out in the states the last few weeks can you imagine if we did have that weather this country would never cope.

just had a look in the model thread and quite a few not happy now, sounds like the north uk will be cold with possibility of snow and south (us) cold and wet ha ha still a long way to go but sounds like a big change from yest.

Edited by welshwizard
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gfs 12z - atlantic too strong - cold spell/snap/30 mins looks off now - wow - what a turn around - one minute it switches to on - then switches back - very strange - oh well as you were - floods a plenty!

 

Gem trying to hold on to the cold prospects - you never know - gfs may have sent out a rogue run this time - but the 6z was pushing the cold back too and the meto aren't really sold on it either except for the north east - so right now - not looking too good!

Edited by andymusic
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More unwanted rainfall before then exascerbating existing flooding issues, rendering snow irrelevant. Correct me if I am wrong in saying that...but I would not think I am, given the ground is saturated/waterlogged

 

Last January we had heavy snow which settled after an equally wet December.

Conversely though the previous winter we had a few snow days where lying snow thawed quickly due to the wet ground.

 

Of course it depends on the saturation level of the ground which will vary, the lack of frost will also be a factor hindering any snow falling sticking.

However, more of an issue with regard to lying snow is that current models have gone away from the idea of snow getting here in the first place.

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