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Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14


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lovely set up from the gfs again - atlantic hitting the cold easterly air - nice to see - bit too far out to confirm details just yet - but other models (ECM) suggesting colder 850s into the UK - so any atlantic front will hopefully go something like this

 

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WOW - AND WINTER FINALLY STRIKES BACK

 

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by the 1st FEB we should be nicely entrenched in snow - a la GFS 12z

 

GFS really picked up on the cold signal today - WINTER has a sting in it's tail!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Not quite the tail Andy more like the rear end Andy lol!

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Not quite the tail Andy more like the rear end Andy lol!

 

Maybe the Daily Express - sssssssssssssssssssssssssssh - will finally get there headlines yet (but not 90 days)

 

snow accumulation up to next friday - come on GFS - you know you wanna give this to WALES WALES WALES!

 

Posted Image

 

Matt Hugo Tweet

 

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo811h

@DerekTheWeather @paul78310011 - Mid week to late next week at the mo but change from the west could be interesting and doesn't look mild.

Edited by andymusic
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Looking at the various parameters this chart looks favourable for snow to lower levels on Sunday night from showers, perhaps settling inland but a fairly warm wet ground may be an issue. Sub-zero dew points, air temps around freezing, -5 possibly -6 uppers. Some settling snow at lower levels looks possible.

 

Posted Image

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Maybe the Daily Express - sssssssssssssssssssssssssssh - will finally get there headlines yet (but not 90 days)

 

snow accumulation up to next friday - come on GFS - you know you wanna give this to WALES WALES WALES!

 

Posted Image

 

Matt Hugo Tweet

 

Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo811h

@DerekTheWeather @paul78310011 - Mid week to late next week at the mo but change from the west could be interesting and doesn't look mild.

 

We all know that those charts are unreliable. They underestimate snow amounts. Posted Image

 

Seriously though, after such a barren winter for snow, prospects are looking up for next week, initially as previously mentioned from showers into Monday, with plenty of other prospects after that, details are very difficult but when you have unsettled weather and cold air, likely to be subzero at 850Hpa for a while, and around -5c for decent spells, there will be opportunities for snow. Details are a bit tricky, but I think given the wet weather we are due a bit of luck this winter.

Edited by J10
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We all know that those charts are unreliable. They underestimate snow amounts. Posted Image

 

Seriously though, after such a barren winter for snow, prospects are looking up for next week, initially as previously mentioned from showers into Monday, with plenty of other prospects after that, details are very difficult but when you have unsettled weather and cold air, likely to be subzero at 850Hpa for a while, and around -5c for decent spells, there will be opportunities for snow. Details are a bit tricky, but I think given the wet weather we are due a bit of luck this winter.

Trying to remember the year J1 when we had bad flooding all over UK and York was badly effected and after that we hard a very cold spell after the floods ,possible it could have been 1982?

Edited by keithlucky
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Trying to remember the year J1 when we had bad flooding all over UK and York was badly effected and after that we hard a very cold spell after the floods ,possible it could have been 1982?

 

Thee was heavy snow in early 1982

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Record-cold-and-snow.htm

 

But cannot remember the floods,. might have been a different year.

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Given the current state of play, I think is underplaying things and potential somewhat, he is of course right there are better chances further north and on hills but this is always the case.

 

Posted ImageGFS 23 Jan.JPG

 

Posted ImageGFS 23 Jan 2.JPG

 

These charts show a chance of some wintriness for Monday morning and Wednesday morning as things stand. Certainly marginal and not going to give heavy settling snowfalls, but certainly a chance of some wintriness.

 

Going back to snow potential for early Monday.

 

post-213-0-92328300-1390591767_thumb.jpg post-213-0-05500500-1390591760_thumb.jpg

 

In short very similar, chance of wintry/snow showers for many overnight, with Dewpoints around or below freezing for most, snow chances becoming a bit more restricted to higher ground later.

 

Thereafter a lot of opportunities for wintriness, however the disagreements between the models tonight makes any detail difficult to pinpoint, but IMO there is a very real chance of winter proper arriving next week.

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18z - oh so close now

 

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18z - westward shift - easterly further in - more shifts like this please!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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atlantic slams into the cold air and brings it's own cold air with it - BOGOF - buy one get one FREE!!!!!!!!!!!!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

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fairly steady outputs from GFS at the mo - will be a balancing act with this amount of marginality - but the cold is never too far away!

Edited by andymusic
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Sky weather showing nothing at all for Wales Up to thurs wots your views on it guys

 

Wintry showers tomorrow evening into Monday, with chance of snow in places. [after further heavy rain daytime for many Sunday]

 

Colder next week with winds from the east next week at least for a time.

 

Thereafter, huge disagreements between models, but colder than average whatever.

Edited by J10
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wind has picked up here - that squall line on radar coming into North Wales looks a bit nasty and packed with thunder and lightning - with showers packing in behind - forecast is for those to turn wintry at higher elevations!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Edited by andymusic
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Loads of lightning strikes being detected over N Wales from a potent looking squall line. Looks it's too far north to affect here however, pfft. Winds are very gusty though, things flying about and banging outside.

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As the squall progresses through mid and SW Wales it gave just a brief torrential squall with some hail at this location.

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winds have gone mental all of a sudden in a hefty shower! - all hell has broken lose here and the squall line hasn't got here yet according to the radar!

Edited by andymusic
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