Wales (Cymru) Winter Regional Discussion 07/01/14

[Bobby]

Thunder and lightning here to my south, 2 flashes seen and several rumbles. Lights flickering!

[Ginkrots]

High tide in Newport and no flooding it seems; but a close call! seawater currently gushing out of drains.

[CLH the red dragon]

Models look much better this week. Accumulated precipitation down by about 50%. 

 

Of course. That's still over 50mm in 7 days or so.....

[snefnug]

Absolutely glorious day here today apres le deluge of yesterday! Good sign possibly for spring (Celtic Imbolc today)?

[CLH the red dragon]

Yeah, it's showery here but very nice otherwise, feels spring like. Was pretty stressed at the possibility of 100+mm accumulated over the next 7 days. I know the charts always overplay. Seems better today. 

[TonyH]

52mm in the past 7 days here, it was mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday, should easily get another 50mm or so this week.

[Highland Snow]

Today is Candlemas Day and folklore suggests "if its fair and bright winter will have another fight". For the uninitiated Candlemas Day is the Christian commemoration of the presentation of Jesus in the Temple at Jerusalem and the purification of the Blessed Virgin Mary as ordained in the Jewish Law (Torah) by Yahweh the God of Israel in Leviticus 12.

 

It is known in the States as Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil has indeed popped out of his burrow this Sunday morning, predicting six more weeks of Winter - ie. rain and gales!

 

http://www.usatoday....y-phil/5101379/

 

Today we are halfway between the Winter Solstice and the Vernal Equinox ie. Midwinter. It also coincides with Imbolic the ancient Pagan Festival.

 

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright
Winter will have another fight.
If Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain,
Winter won't come again.

If Candlemas Day be dry and fair,
The half o the winter's to come and mair;
If Candlemas Day be wet and foul,
The half o the winter's gane at Yule.

[Buriedundersnow]

saw this on twitter last night and thought it might be of some interest

 

 

creepy aint it

 

could be one of many things

 

1. just coincidence

 

2. we really can time travel

 

3. the same family handing down names and like to sink ships lol

 

or something else

[keithlucky]

52mm in the past 7 days here, it was mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday, should easily get another 50mm or so this week.

Yes quite frightening really Tony had a nice sunny day but no surface drying ,lucky i live on a hill LoL.

[marclt]

Squally conditions yesterday and today really whipped up the winds.

[freeze for all]

Still no signs of a change from the shocking wind and rain in the near future!! Bored of it is an understatement

[Bobby]

Still no signs of a change from the shocking wind and rain in the near future!! Bored of it is an understatement

 

Yes no end it seems. Some shocking weather coming up this week.

 

NMM forecast rainfall for next 3 days, ~50mm across much of S Wales, maybe ~75mm/3 inches in places on high ground

 

 

Severe gales and possible coastal flooding Tuesday and Wednesday

 

 

GFS rainfall for next 8 days - 100mm+ in parts of Wales, probably 150mm or so on high ground

 

 

Impressive storminess for December let alone February after already 2 months of storms and rain. Quite fascinating from a meteorological standpoint, if not very pleasant.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Bobby

[andymusic]

yep - looks like two bombs of low pressure are gonna hit Wales head on this week - tomorrow night into wednesday - and then around saturday - gonna be another very stormy week - will this ever ever end!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

 

 

 

COLD NEWS - winter olympics starts on Friday!

 

And - The groundhog in America predicts 6 more weeks of winter (which could mean another six more soggy windy weeks for the UK)

Edited February 3, 2014 by andymusic

[welshwizard]

I was listening to a guy on the radio talking about the amounts of rain we been having and he said this weather could last up and into March with atlantic  storms coming in every week at least with no sign of cold weather, he said there may be a cold day or two but then back to the rain and wind. so if what has been happening so far does keep on into March it does very much look like no snow or decent cold spell this winter. I cant see much kids rugby or football being played again next weekend with the forecast for this coming week. the fields around here and probs everywhere else only need a little rain and they full of puddles again. never mind summer around the corner, not sure how big the corner is but bit of luck it be nice and sunny summer we had enough rain to last us a while.

[TonyH]

The rain band has been stuck over Pembrokeshire all day with around an inch for many places there. It has only given light rain here for the past 3 hours amounting to less than 1mm. It has still not even reached the Dovey in mid Wales.

[Bobby]

The rain band has been stuck over Pembrokeshire all day with around an inch for many places there. It has only given light rain here for the past 3 hours amounting to less than 1mm. It has still not even reached the Dovey in mid Wales.

 

Huge amounts of rain Fishguard way the past 12 hours, 60mm+ so far and still coming down, must be some flooding there

 

[keithlucky]

The rain band has been stuck over Pembrokeshire all day with around an inch for many places there. It has only given light rain here for the past 3 hours amounting to less than 1mm. It has still not even reached the Dovey in mid Wales.

Interesting Tony that the easterly movement has stalled HP over the continent holding rain back?

[TonyH]

Huge amounts of rain Fishguard way the past 12 hours, 60mm+ so far and still coming down, must be some flooding there

 

hiradarzoomv42.pl.png

Close by Fishguard and particularly the Preselis catching a good 2 inches indeed!

Edited February 3, 2014 by TonyH

[CLH the red dragon]

The rainfall this winter has been very interesting in terms of how much and how much was modelled. Today the GFS claims 100+ mm of rain by me at +192.

 

But, take today, barely anything. The weekend, barely anything. One hopes that it overdoes rainfall, at least in non mountainous areas. 

 

It's interesting just seeing how a river spikes then falls if there's a sniff of "dry weather." This is my river.

 

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120756.aspx?stationId=4095

 

A mere 10cm above where it was in the summer drought. It definitely peaks. Was up to about 1.2m last Friday afternoon, but quickly drops.

 

It's been great today seeing almost entirely dry roads.......until now.

[TonyH]

Quite a few Wunderground stations over 25mm nothing over 30mm though for Pembrokeshire.

[dragon falls]

Same here in Cardiff dryest day since a very long day raining now drizing now winds picked up bit now

[CLH the red dragon]

Personally, I feel that the systems take a line from Port Talbot to Gloucerstershire, heavy to the West of it, lighter to the East of it. Not to say we don't get loads now and again but, so far, we've got away with it to an extent.

[virtualsphere]

January rainfall data now available from the Met Office, and it has been the wettest January in Wales since 1948, the third wettest in the series going back to 1910 (1928 was slightly wetter).  With January rainfall coming in at 269mm, this will become the wettest winter on record in Wales if February records more than 193mm. For the sake of those affected by the floods, hopefully it won't happen - or if it does, that we get there with minimal harm to life and property.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

Edited February 3, 2014 by virtualsphere

[welshwizard]

Just had a shock went out to fetch father in law from club and it was sleet and snow coming down up here, rain further down the valley but noticed the temp was also low showing 2.5 up here and 3.5 down in the valley, I would not be surprised to see the bwlch white tomorrow morn if it keeps up. didn't think there was supposed to be anything other than rain.

[andymusic]

Just had a shock went out to fetch father in law from club and it was sleet and snow coming down up here, rain further down the valley but noticed the temp was also low showing 2.5 up here and 3.5 down in the valley, I would not be surprised to see the bwlch white tomorrow morn if it keeps up. didn't think there was supposed to be anything other than rain.

 there is a slight cold slot in between todays front and tomorrows bomb of a low coming in - could produce one or two wintry showers!